With the 2021 Players Championship rapidly approaching, the key question everyone is asking is the same across the golf world: who are you choosing to win at TPC Sawgrass? With a huge, star-studded field – and just a month until the Masters – the first major event of 2021 should be an epic journey from the first round from Thursday onwards.
Plots are rife this week, and the last player to win in this field – Rory McIlroy in 2019 – leads them. McIlroy has not won since the fall of 2019, and in the past few weeks he has regretted a game that is not so strong enough. He was at the epicenter of Players 2019 (for his victory) and the 2020 version (for his leadership through the shutdown of COVID-19). Will he be back this year?
Joining McIlroy is Jordan Spieth (top three in four events) and last week’s champion (and winner of three of his last 15 events), Bryson DeChambeau. We could go on for hours on the rest of the stories, but those are three that appear with the players on the deck.
So, what will happen this week at TPC Sawgrass? Let’s take a look at a complete set of predictions and choices from our CBS sports experts, along with a full list of 2021 players in the championship. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
Tips and predictions from experts in the 2021 players’ championship
Kyle Porter, golf writer
Winner – Patrick Cantlay (22-1): If you look at the strokes won, he was the best player in the world in 2021. Like his Presidents Cup partner, Xander Schauffele, Cantlay has no gaps in the game. It debuted at 67 last year before everything was canceled. I have been ready to choose you for this event for about six weeks.
Dormant – Conners Corey (80-1): What’s not to love here? He’s been a better tee to green this year than Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau and is almost wrong last week at Bay Hill. You can also talk to me about Sergio Garcia in 70-1 or Joaquin Niemann in 50-1, but I like Conners better in this issue.
Top 10 lock – Jon Rahm (16-1 to win): There is no block in the top 10 in TPC Sawgrass, but Rahm reaches the top 10 just as often as anyone in the world (58 out of 114 official matches worldwide, 51%). He is the seventh in the world this year in strokes, won tee to green and is slightly under the radar (for him).
Star that will definitely not win – Rory McIlroy: No one has ever successfully defended here, and all the winners since 2004 (except Tiger Woods in 2013) were champions for the first time. Combine that with his weird bad round, and I don’t think the game is sharp enough for him to take a second consecutive round of Players.
Top 5 in order: Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama
Surprise forecast: Jordan Spieth will miss the cut. This would not normally be a surprising prediction, but Spieth has finished in the top five in three of his last four events and is genuinely one of the best iron players in the world at the moment. However, he usually doesn’t play well at TPC Sawgrass – even when he was playing the best golf of his life – and missed four of his last five cuts at The Players.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 271 (-17)
Winner score on Sunday: 69 (-3)
Jacob Hallex, producer
Winner – Viktor Hovland (25-1): The winners at The Players tend to be random and do not fit into a particular mold. It is a difficult tournament to predict, so it will take us a while to choose the victory. Why not Hovland? The Norwegian finished in the top 5 in four of his last six matches on the PGA Tour. This includes a victory at the Mayakoba Classic just before the holidays. The hit against Hovland is your chip. In addition to the atrocious court in the second round of WGC Workday, his short game was not so bad. I will take the 23-year-old forward to get his third victory on the PGA Tour.
Sleeper – Cameron Smith (50-1): He has achieved a trio of the first five results of the season so far. Smith burst my eyes with a T2 finish at the rescheduled Masters in November. He was in contention at the WGC-Workday Championship last month, before a disastrous 77 on Saturday ended any hope of victory. Before the Concession collapse, he finished T4 on the Genesis Invitational by winning 10 strokes from the tee to the green during the week. Not too mistreated. If the young Australian man avoids a large number, I believe he will end up near the top of the leaderboard.
Top 10 Lock – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): One of these days, Finau will win his second victory on the PGA Tour. It probably won’t be this week. But lately, if he ties, he is likely to finish in the top 10, as he has done so in five of his last seven world games. We will avoid all disappointment of another “closed but no cigar” ending, winning a ticket in the top 10 this week.
star that definitely will not win – Rory McIlroy: It almost looks like a cheat. Rory may have been lost in the forest while helping to find Jordan Spieth. Something that many people missed last week was McIlroy dropping out of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Rankings for the first time since 2018. Rory is looking for a spark. He commented after Sunday’s round at the API: “I need something and I just don’t seem to have it.” He may be the title champion, but I’m not going to buy any McIlroy stock this week.
Top 5 in order: Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Tyrrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris
Surprise prediction – Jordan Spieth misses the cut: I bet Spieth will miss the cut last week and I will do the same thing again this week. What is the definition of insanity? Jordan “is back” … but I’m still going to miss him on a course where he hasn’t had a great story. A T4 in 2014 is his only result in the top 40 at this event. He did not perform well here during the peak years and seemed lost in the depths. Spice up expectations and don’t be surprised if Spieth misses the cut for the fifth time in his career at The Players
Lowest round: 65 (-7)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner score on Sunday: 69 (-3)
Do you want more accurate golf advice, choices and analysis driven by DFS data? Listen below and subscribe to The First Cut Golf podcast, where we explain what is happening on the course so you can win, including a full preview of The Players Championship below.
Adam Silverstein, deputy editor-in-chief
Winner – Justin Thomas (20-1): Except for a missed edition on the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago, Thomas has been on the rise since the start of the season in September. He finished 15th in any event he has ever played with in the top three. This is the time of year when Thomas makes you believe that he is a good choice to win the Masters with a victory in a significant event in preparation. In search of his 14th win on the PGA Tour, the first since August last year, there is good value here at JT
Sleeper – Billy Horschel (70-1): One of the most consecutive golfers on the PGA Tour, Horschel finds success in the pits. And while he fell out of favor last week losing the cut at Bay Hill after finishing T2 at the WGC-Workday Championship, Horschel has four results in the top 10 since the beginning of December. He likes to be tested on difficult courses and, considering that he lives about 15 minutes from TPC Sawgrass, he is quite familiar with this course. Great chances for a rising golfer with some home advantage.
Top 10 lock – Tony Finau (25-1 to win): Look, we all know the deal with Finau right now. He has five results in the top five in his last seven events. He can win this thing, but he probably won’t. But if I’m putting a guy on blocking status to finish in the top 10, there just isn’t a better choice out there right now.
Star that will definitely not win – Rory McIlroy: I hate to make this category a scan, but it is the obvious choice considering its game in decline. McIlroy saying that he needs to meet is a clear indication that something is not working physically, mentally or both. Unlike my countrymen, I will give you a bonus here if you are looking for a change of pace: Hideki Matsuyama.
Top 5 in order: Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel
Surprise prediction – Rickie Fowler will be in containment: It may be just for one round or most of the day, but Fowler has taken so many body blows for his game lately that I think he will find a lot of external motivation to try these four rounds at least once. Fowler has 125-1 to win the Players, so don’t go and bet anything on him, but this is a field he is used to playing. Just when you exclude Fowler, he may surprise you a little.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 272 (-16)
Winner score on Sunday: 69 (-3)
Who will win the players’ championship, and which pitches from afar will stun the golf world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard and the best bets, all from the model that hit six golf majors and is over $ 11,000 since the restart to find out.