We are two years away from Zion Williamson entering the NBA draft as the safest bet for stardom since LeBron James, and yet the performance of choice # 2 leaves open a debate about who was the real winner in 2019.
I’m not ready to declare Memphis Grizzlies sophomore Ja Jaantant better than Williamson, mainly because the 20-year-old New Orleans Pelicans still carries so much untapped potential, but the fact that Morant made it a real conversation is a reflection of its rising star and the fall of Williamson.
Tuesday’s meeting between the two is a chance to check out this discussion that could shape the future of the league.
There is no doubt that Morant has been most successful up to this point. The Grizzlies exceeded their expected total winnings last season in 7 1/2 games in a short campaign, and they are on track to exceed expectations in 10 1/2 games this season. The bubble burst their command over the final seed of the West playoff, but they are in line for another play-in spot – a no small feat for a small-market team with no stars established at a busy conference.
Morant was undoubtedly the leader on the court of a Memphis equal squad, averaging 17.8 points and 7.3 assists last season and surpassing both numbers this season in just 29.9 minutes per game. He was considered a snubbed All-Star in 2020 and won 99 out of 100 possible votes for first place in the Newbie of the Year vote.
Superstars’ enthusiasm followed Morant this season, and he delivered on his debut in 2020-21, accumulating 44 points and nine assists against the San Antonio Spurs, but a severe sprain in his left ankle 12 minutes into his third game of the year prevented his rise . The injury cost Morant eight games, and he has yet to find the same high level of play since. Still, the 21-year-old has an average of 22.1 points and 9.6 assists for 36 minutes for an overachieving team.
Meanwhile, Williamson’s career began with an injury to his right knee that may still be limiting his effectiveness. He didn’t debut until the middle of his debut season, and then presented a 19-game preview of his potential superstar that jumped him into the Rookie of the Year and his Pelicans conversation for the playoff chase. His experience with the blister started with a family emergency and ended prematurely with pain in the same right knee.
Williamson has not lost a game due to injury this season and continues to score efficiently, averaging 24.4 points from 64.7% of true shots in 32.7 minutes per game, but he is still short of his cap. This is both the burden of high expectations and proof of how much space Williamson still has to grow. Billed as the ultimate modern weapon – a big one above the rim that can control the ball, create for others and defend in various positions – it failed to show so many dimensions in the NBA, trying to 95% of its shots within 3 meters of the basket.
Williamson was also considered a culture creator in college, a beam of radiant light whose enthusiasm for the game positively impacted the collective. That was absent when we approached the middle of its second season. Pelicans finished 8 1/2 games below expectations in a shortened 2019-20 campaign, mostly due to circumstances beyond Williamson’s control, but they are on their way to drop six games before the expected total wins this short season.
All the advanced statistics favor Williamson over Morant, especially when it comes to his net on / off rating. Memphis was actually 4.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Morant on the ground this season, including a -14.1 drop in defense, which puts him in the league’s lowest percentile. This after finishing 2019-20 in black. New Orleans has been six points for 100 possessions better with Williamson on the court, almost the same as last season.
But at some point, you need to look at your records. The Grizzlies are 40-41 in the 81 games played by Morant. Morant’s main racing partner – promising third-year man Jaren Jackson Jr. – has not played this season. Eight of Memphis’s top 10 rotating players are 25 or younger, and their two veterans – Jonas Valanciunas and Kyle Anderson – were the top four on the previous charts. Nobody handles the ball more than Morant on the Grizzlies, and as a result, his team’s better-than-expected record shows how well the pieces fit around him.
The fit may be the biggest difference between the two rising stars. New Orleans is faced with question marks on how to build around Williamson. They rarely put it at the center, apparently the best place for it in the current era. His defensive deficiencies both in isolation and in pick and roll make him a target. The Pelicans prioritized the protection of the Steven Adams hoop, but his inability to space the ground obstructs the attack, especially for a four like Williamson and his 13 attempts for a total of 3 points. This takes Brandon Ingram out of his All-Star position.
On paper, young Pelicans must be better than their colleagues at the Grizzlies. Williamson and Ingram are the two highest-earning rising stars. They have a trio of veterans – Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams and JJ Redick – who have been the main playoff teams in recent years. Lonzo Ball is a pass-first ace who is shooting better than anyone expected, and there are several players with the same disposition who work to improve around him.
But it just didn’t click. This has everything to do with the difficulty of building around Williamson. It’s easier with Morant, a floor general at the highest level, but do any teams prefer to build around Morant?
Most would probably prefer Williamson’s size – 1.80 m and 284 pounds – but they are not as different as their positions may suggest. They also have athleticism, so much so that each one is subject to injury – Morant like a 1.80 m branch between trees and Williamson putting so much torque on his knees. The preference talks about the history of basketball, but Morant is an excellent example of how priorities may be changing in this era.
Offensive, Williamson tries more shots in the restricted area than anyone in the league – almost three more shots on the edge per game than Giannis Antetokounmpo – but Morant hits the basket more than any other NBA playmaker and is the top playmaker when he get there. Morant also showed his ability to shoot from a distance, even though his 3-point 33.5% accuracy dropped seven points in a much smaller sample this season.
Defensively, the two have miles ahead of them. They get lost in defensive choices and spins, like most young players. Morant has lateral speed and a wingspan of 2 meters to keep opponent guards in front of him. Their problems arise mainly outside the ball, which must be corrected by a willing defender. Williamson is a big question mark. He must have a lot more defensive responsibility, but his athletics is more vertical than horizontal, and he fights in space.
Williamson’s knee may be contributing to these deficiencies, but that is no less worrisome from a long-term perspective. He’s probably still the safest bet to join an MVP discussion about a championship contender for years to come, but don’t be too quick to leave Morant out of that conversation. This is not the slam dunk we thought of before, which is even more depressing for the New York Knicks, who entered the 2019 draft with much better odds in the first two places than the Pelicans or Grizzlies and came out in third place and RJ Barrett on the layer below them.
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Ben Rohrbach is a staff writer for Yahoo Sports. Do you have a tip? Send an email to [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
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