On Monday night, the San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs agreed to a seven-player deal that will send right-handed Yu Darvish, personal catcher Victor Caratini and cash considerations to the west coast in exchange for right-handed Zach Davies and four prospects: outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena and shortstops Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana.
Darvish’s arrival in San Diego comes less than 24 hours after the Fathers agreed to switch to the southpaw Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays. It also happens a month and a half after Darvish, 34, finished second in the National League’s Cy Young Award poll (behind free agent Trevor Bauer), after a season in which he debuted 12 times and got the best of his time. career in ERA + (221) and scratched to walk ratio (6.64).
What does this exchange mean for the value of Yu Darvish’s fantasy? CBS Sports experts explained in the latest Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Listen below:
Like Snell, Darvish is under contract for another three seasons. He will bring home almost $ 60 million by the 2023 season, including $ 22 million next year.
We here at CBS Sports are nothing but critics. As such, we decided to split the trade and provide notes for each team. Let’s move on to that part of the effort now, starting with a recap of the moving parts:
- Fathers receive: RHP Yu Darvish, C Victor Caratini, money
- Little lions receive: RHP Zach Davies, OF Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena, SS Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana
Degree of Fathers: A
It seems very cute to write that the Fathers hacked this era of baseball by deciding that they want to win now, and that they are willing to pay players for it – but is that false? In the 24-hour period, the Fathers added two above-average starting pitchers without sacrificing the top of their farm system; in fact, a scout estimated that San Diego switched two players from his top 10 (Preller also reportedly hired Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has the profile of an average league starter and is expected to have significant action on second base. ) already a dangerous team, look more capable now. It may not be enough to chase the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, but they have a better chance than a week ago or, hell, three days ago.
Although Darvish fought in his first season and a half in Chicago, he has been back in good shape since July 2019. Cutting and cutting years is never advisable when it comes to respectable analysis, but to illustrate the point: he was opposed to two runs or less in 17 of his last 26 matches. Only in 2020, Darvish launched a higher rate of attacks and missed a higher rate of bats than before. These gains seem attributable to an altered pitch mix that made him launch more cutters, sliders and curves and fewer four-seater quickballs.
Darvish will continue to perform in it is level? Probably not. Is there a risk here? Certainly; he is approaching 30 and has had some problems with injuries in the past. At some point, decay comes to everyone – yes, even you and Yu. Still, Darvish has a dizzying array of things and intelligence, and it is difficult to challenge his track record. He posted an ERA + over 100 in seven of his eight seasons in the major leagues and reached 120 in five of those campaigns. The Fathers, then, have every reason to believe that Darvish will contribute significantly in the next three years.
One of the strangest aspects of this trade is how Caratini, who served as Darvish’s personal catcher in 2020, is considered just a throw-in. He is more than a hot body; at this time last year, he was emerging from an above average offensive display that made the Cubs struggle to find additional playing time for him. Now, Caratini is probably not going to get it right enough to be an infallible starter to move on, but he walks and arms himself and that makes him a good reserve candidate. At the very least, it must be an upgrade over Francisco Mejia, which the Fathers sent in the Snell business.
Degree of Cubs: D
There are reasons to believe that this is the beginning of the rebuilding of the Cubs, a long time ago. What exactly that means is yet to be determined, but the sensation across the league is and has been throughout the winter that everyone on the list is available to serve. In other words, Cubs fans should get used to seeing the team send veterans in search of candidates. Is this how a big market giant, coming out of a playoff appearance and just a few years ago from a World Series championship, should behave? No, not really.
The Ricketts family, however, will blame their unwillingness to spend to maintain and strengthen their core – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras – in the financial losses they suffered during the pandemic. That explanation doesn’t explain why Cubs have been playing with a reboot since before COVID-19 was one thing, or why they were so limited in recent years that they couldn’t sign Adam Warren types. You can only hope that the Ricketts learn that they need to be able to stand up on their own, instead of turning to others to rescue their bad decisions.
The return here is shockingly mild … well, everything: the inclusion of Caratini; the financial component going back to San Diego; and Darvish himself. It is hard to believe that the Cubs have failed to garner interest from other teams that could have taken advantage of the increased rotation and who apparently have money to spend. In the state of California alone, this means the Dodgers, the Angels and the Giants. However, they could not or did not want to try. One way to achieve peace is to accept things as they are, rather than as you think they should be. With that in mind, let’s move on to the players themselves.
Davies is a right-handed change artist who is coming out of the best season of his career (157 ERA + and 3.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 matches). He doesn’t play hard and has always been more of a contact manager than a hitter, but that changed a bit in 2020. Davies played his change more than ever, more than 40 percent of the time, and this adjustment increased his rate K for eight through nine entries. He is a free agent next winter, which, combined with the dismantling of the Cubs, suggests that he will be on the block again in July.
Only one of the other four players that the Cubs received played in a real professional game. (Being Santana, whose story includes all 41 games on American soil.) The range of results for each player here, then, is ridiculously wide and depends on the ability of the Cubs development team to get the most out of these youngsters.
Caissie, the San Diego runoff choice this summer, just turned 18 in July and is arguably the best prospect the Cubs have received. He is a well-built Canadian with a promising baton and good power potential. It is likely that it will end in a corner. Santana, 20, is a good athlete who could stay in shorts. Preciado, 17, received more than $ 1 million to sign in July 2019. He has a projectable board that suggests he may have to leave the shortstop while filling out. Then there is Mena, who has the tools to become an above-average defensive central defender. It is to see if he can keep that promise.