Ethiopian troops and their allies in the bustling province of Tigray face a growing insurgency fueled by a series of massacres and other acts of violence against civilians.
The country’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, launched a military offensive four months ago to “restore the rule of law” by overthrowing the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the ruling political party in the province, after mounting tensions and a surprise attack on a federal army base.
Despite the government’s claims of a significant improvement in the security situation in recent weeks, tens of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers and soldiers sent by Eritrea to support Addis Ababa’s military operations appear to face continued resistance.
Mekelle, the provincial capital, is relatively quiet, but there are reports of fighting elsewhere. About a third of the province may remain outside the government’s control.
A series of fierce clashes took place in mid-February around Samre, a small town 40 km southwest of Mekelle, while thousands of Ethiopian troops supported by artillery, tanks and air strikes were fighting the loyal TPLF forces dug there.
Residents of Adigrat, in northeastern Tigray, say they have heard heavy weapons firing for days in the hills around the city. Similar reports came from the city of Adwa, at a strategically important crossroads near the border with Eritrea, and several other locations.
There are also reports of ambushes and other clashes in central and western Tigray, but with severe restrictions on the media and cut communications for most of the province, it is difficult to confirm the details.
In its most recent report on conditions in Tigray, the UN said intensified fighting was reported across the province.
Abiy declared the end of the war in December, after the TPLF leadership evacuated Mekelle and an interim administration loyal to Addis Ababa was installed. The TPLF suffered heavy casualties in the conflict and lost much of its military equipment.
Since then, however, it seems to have regrouped. Several senior TPLF leaders have been captured, but others remain in mountainous areas and have been able to contact analysts, media and supporters outside Ethiopia in the past few days.
Getachew K Reda, a former TPLF minister, sent a series of tweets from an unknown location earlier this week, the first since November, and TPLF President Gebretsion Debremichael gave an interview to CNN.
Revolution
The Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPRDF) overthrows Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam, the head of a communist junta that has ruled the country since 1974. The coalition group is led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), guerrillas who marched from his homeland in northern Ethiopia to the capital, Addis Ababa.
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia proclaimed
The EPRDF comes to power in disputed elections, and the leader of the TPLF, Meles Zenawi, becomes Prime Minister of Ethiopia. The Tigrayans dominate the upper echelons of the government.
Ethnic Federalism
Meles introduces a system that gives the country’s main ethnic groups the chance to govern the areas in which they dominate. Although Tigrayans make up about 5% of the population, they benefit disproportionately, claiming other regions, as roads and other infrastructure are built in their sparsely populated area.
Meles dies
The prime minister dies in office and a successor from another ethnic group is appointed.
Split ERPDF
Divisions arise in the EPRDF over how quickly to pursue political reforms in response to street protests that threaten coalition control.
Abiy Ahmed comes to power
Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo, takes over as prime minister, earning praise at home and abroad for opening up one of Africa’s most restrictive political and economic systems.
Crackdowns
Tigrayans complain that they are being persecuted in a crackdown on past corruption and abuse. Former high-ranking military and political officials are tried.
Peace prize
Abiy receives the Nobel Peace Prize for his peacemaking efforts, which ended two decades of hostility to Eritrea. The TPLF continues to see Eritrea as an enemy.
Rooms
Ethiopia’s ruling coalition agrees to form a single party, but the TPLF refuses to merge with three other ethnic-based parties, considering the hasty and undemocratic action.
Electoral line
Tigray holds regional elections in defiance of the federal government, which postponed national elections in August because of Covid-19. Abiy’s government says the vote is illegal.
Retained funds
The federal government is beginning to withhold some funds earmarked for social welfare programs in Tigray, as part of a plan to deprive regional authorities of money in retaliation for voting.
The fight begins
Abiy sends troops to Tigray, accusing the TPLF of attacking federal troops based in the region. The TPLF accuses Abiy of punishing the region for the September vote. Reuters
Intelligence officials from the United States and Europe have closely followed the struggle for Samre, looking for indicators of the intensity and possible future course of the struggle in Tigray.
One said the battle suggested a “complex, dynamic and chaotic” competition in progress. TPLF “was hit hard in the first few months and took some time to recover. Now they seem to have recovered, ”said the official.
Samre, a cluster of houses with steel roofs and a market on a plateau, has changed hands repeatedly since mid-November. When TPLF forces last withdrew in mid-February, much of the population also fled and suffered casualties in air strikes and artillery shells, according to residents. Government troops reportedly emptied grain deposits and destroyed orchards in retaliation for popular support for the TPLF.
Tigray Map
Local sources reported on Wednesday that Eritrean soldiers in the city told remaining civilians that additional support for TPLF forces would be severely punished. According to an unconfirmed account, soldiers threatened to amputate a hand and a foot, in reference to a punishment that 19th-century Ethiopian kings inflicted on traitors in times of war.
A senior TPLF leader said his military commanders were instructed not to occupy positions that would make them vulnerable to the superior firepower of federal forces, especially in rural areas.
“The landscape is decisive,” said Wolbert Smidt, a German historian and ethnographer who lived and researched in Ethiopia for decades, mainly in Tigray. “The population is largely rural, using paths and communication networks known only locally. That is why governments in the past have never been able to establish effective control without a degree of recognition of local autonomy. “
Massacres and other human rights violations are motivating many young Tigrayans to take up arms, independent observers and TPFL officials told the Guardian.
The incidents include the deaths of up to 700 people at a famous religious site in Axum and 164 in Dengolat, a village in northern Tigray. Atrocities have also been attributed to Tigrayan forces. Hundreds of people died in a massacre attributed to a TPLF-linked militia in Mai Kadra in early November.
On Friday, Human Rights Watch said the Axum massacre came after members of the Tigrayan militia, accompanied by some residents, attacked Eritrean soldiers. The Eritreans called for reinforcements, then started looking for boys and boys and executing them.
“THE [Tigrayan] young people are very angry. Until recently, [the TPLF] were unable to train or arm all the volunteers who came to them … In the past few days, they are telling them to report again, ”said a TPLF administrative official who fled Tigray to a neighboring province and is in contact with ex- colleagues there.
William Davison, an Ethiopian analyst at the International Crisis Group, said there were several reports of young people joining the military wing of the TPLF as news of atrocities spread. “There seems to be almost unanimous indignation … It is very difficult to say how big the rebel force is now, but all the indicators suggest that the workforce is not a problem,” he said.
Anger among tigers was reinforced by attacks on places of great cultural importance in the province. The segmentation of formerly sacrosanct refuges has also led those fleeing violence to seek areas controlled by the TPLF, suggest messages transmitted by local residents to relatives outside Tigray.
Michelle Bachelet, the UN high commissioner for human rights, said on Thursday that her office had corroborated serious violations that could result in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Tigray.
Most of the massacres reported so far took place in November or December last year, but there is evidence that they continued into January. Between 150 and 300 youths were killed in a village near Dela, south of Samre, during fighting about six weeks ago.
Although the details of the incident are unclear, relatives of the victims contacted friends and supporters in Europe, saying that after clashes with TPLF fighters, government soldiers arrested men of fighting age and shot many in the fields. After Samre resumed in mid-February, the fires appear to have been deliberately ignited to destroy more than 500 structures near the city.
Other images suggest similar fires in other parts of Tigray, such as along the border with Eritrea.
There is also widespread concern about attacks on women and children and continued sexual violence. Patients at the Ayder referral hospital in Mekelle included about 120 survivors of sexual violence, some bringing reports of collective rape by soldiers. “It is a plague for women. Our sisters are suffering, ”said a doctor who worked with rape survivors who asked not to be identified for fear of reprisals.
Eritrean officials described the allegations of massacres perpetrated by their soldiers as “outrageous lies”. The Ethiopian government said on Wednesday that federal authorities were investigating “credible allegations of atrocities and serious human rights abuses” and would guarantee accountability.
“Ethiopia rejects any party interventions and politically motivated campaigns against the country and the government, aimed at undermining the rule of law measures it has taken, and will continue to take to bring the crime clique and other perpetrators to justice,” said the communicated.
Davison described the conflict as “probably invincible to either side”. “If people are going to put the pieces together, they need to find a way to start a political process,” he said.