The Yankees started their last spring training turnaround around rotation on Friday – at the very least – with much better head space than when they started the process five weeks ago.
The non-Gerrit Cole part of the rotation, which evoked concern, remained healthy and shot well, providing the most winning parlay in this Yankee spring training. Everything went so smoothly that Deivi Garcia, who was hired by Triple-A on Friday, is likely to start the year at the alternate location, preparing for a minor league season or when the big team needs a replacement.
That the working body and the bodies for rotation are both solid, of course, is better than the alternative. But there are two baseball sayings that resonate now that should at least moderate uncontrolled enthusiasm:
1. Don’t be fooled by the results of March.
This is a month for deception. Big leagues, minor leagues and off-the-list despair mix in games at different levels of readiness. Veterans may be working on new swings or pitches. Once again, Yankees holders are better off with a good statistical performance. But if we are to take these numbers seriously, should we also do so for an offense by the Yankees that was generally bad in the League of Grapefruits?
If you were a bettor, would you bet – with everything you know, including the March 2021 results – that the Yankees will be more concerned with their rotation or lineup in the regular season?
2. You never have too many initial releases.
It should be noted how quickly the depth disappears. The Rangers, for example, left Spring Training 2.0 in 2020 satisfied with their new acquisition, Corey Kluber. He started the third game. He launched an inning. He hurt his shoulder. He never released it again.
Kluber is now part of a rotation in which that inning represents one more than Domingo German or Jameson Taillon launched last year.
Let’s play the bettor’s angle again: would you bet that the Yankees will be out of the initial trading market in July or will they be involved, say, in the Reds ‘Luis Castillo and the Rockies’ German Marquez?
Avoiding the fragility of the rotation in March is the only obstacle that the Yankees could have crossed up to this point – and they did. A positive, for sure. But considering how little German, Kluber, Taillon and even Jordan Montgomery have launched in the past two years, the biggest barrier would always be June, July and August …
The whole sport is gearing up to cover shifts this year, unsure of the workload pitchers can take out of a 2020 impacted by COVID’s 60 major league games and none for minors. The average team threw 516 entries last year in the regular season. In the 2019 season of 162 games, it was 1,447.
Boone mentioned last week that he believes Cole could return to a 200-inning start this year, a luxury – if done – few teams will have. That would still leave more than 1,200 entries. Let’s go back to that bettor: would you bet on someone from the German, Kluber, Taillon – agreed on an inning last year – giving 150 innings this year? How about 125? Montgomery, 17 starts combined in the past three seasons, are you ready for more than 25 this year?
The Yankees have Garcia on speed dial. Perhaps Clarke Schmidt will heal and become a factor at some point. The Yankees are aiming for a re-entry in July for Luis Severino, but he is another who had no entry last year after Tommy John’s surgery.
Like any team, the Yankees will need creativity. Mariners and Angels, for example, are already committed to the rotations of six men and others will at least use this or openers from time to time. The Yankees have four days off in the first 19 days of the season and want to be careful to get around them with caution, especially to protect them in the expected cooler climates. I suspect that hybrids, like Jonathan Loaisiga and Nick Nelson, who may be able to give 80-100 innings in relief, will be huge.
Boone said that “he is not putting any strict limitations on any of the (beginners)” with regard to innings. He noted that he has a general roadmap for how the Yankees would like to allocate starts and entries in 2021, but admitted that it is “always an evolving and changing equation along the way”. The whole sport will have to improvise; the Yankees, no doubt, as much as any club, due to the scarcity of entries that so many of their starters have had in recent years.
So, yes, that Boone was satisfied with items beyond statistics, like things and recovery between games is important. The new additions, Kluber and Taillon, have acclimated well, as has the German, navigating a difficult path back to respectability after being suspended under domestic abuse protocols. In fact, the German way of shooting may have surprised the team more.
Again, it is better that the Yankees are not looking for reinforcements or choosing bright spots this month. It is a positive first step. But it’s a long walk from here.