Xi Jinping would reach the level of Mao Zedong in the Chinese Communist Party by capturing Taiwan and intends to do so in the next decade by defeating the US military, said former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
Rudd, now president of the Asia Society in New York, published his ideas in the next March / April issue of Foreign Affairs, in which he calls the next 10 years “the decade of living dangerously”.
Taiwan is among the hot spots in Asia-Pacific, where Washington and Beijing are likely to clash in the 2020s. Chinese leader Xi is gaining confidence as Beijing’s top policymakers see the US as a “declining power” irreversible, “wrote Rudd.
Defense Department reports exposed Beijing’s military ambitions in the coming decades, including its plan to transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern “world-class” combat force capable of rivaling that of the United States – a milestone, said Rudd, is scheduled for 2027.
Taipei’s own security analysis shows that the PLA seeks to block the US from any conflict in the Taiwan Strait with the heavy use of anti-access / area denial weapons – A2 / AD. Beijing’s maritime claims and military operations in the eastern and southern China seas are part of that strategy.
Chinese officials, including Xi, have described Taiwan’s “unification” with the continent as one of the country’s main activities, but the Chinese leadership knows that a peaceful resolution to its “Taiwan problem” is now less likely than at any time. the past 70 years, said Rudd, who was Australia’s foreign minister under Prime Minister Julia Gillard and also served as a diplomat in Beijing in the 1980s.
“China has become more authoritarian under Xi, and the promise of reunification under the ‘one country, two systems’ formula has evaporated as the Taiwanese look to Hong Kong, where China has imposed a severe new national security law, has arrested politicians from opposition and restricted media freedom, “he wrote.
By supplanting the US military, at least in Asia, and wielding overwhelming military power in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing could push Washington back from a war it believes it will lose, Rudd said.
“Without the support of the United States, Xi believes, Taiwan would capitulate or fight on its own and lose,” wrote the former prime minister, adding that achieving the “ultimate goal” of taking Taiwan “would place [Xi] on the same level within the CCP’s pantheon as Mao Zedong. “
Still, despite the Chinese leader’s bullish ambitions, Rudd argues that decision makers in Zhongnanhai face significant challenges, including Taiwan’s own defensive capabilities – driven in recent years by U.S. arms sales under former President Donald Trump – as well as the inevitable and “irreparable damage” to China’s political legitimacy resulting from such a military campaign to capture democratic Taiwan.
The main among Beijing’s possible miscalculations, however, may be the unpredictable nature of the US response to a Taiwan Strait contingency.
By predicting that Washington would not wage a war it could not win, Beijing was “projecting its own deep strategic realism,” said Rudd, citing the belief that an unsuccessful military campaign could result in the loss of American prestige and position.
He added: “What China does not include in this calculation is the inverse possibility: that the failure to fight for a solidary democracy that the United States supported throughout the post-war period would also be catastrophic for Washington, particularly in terms of perception of US allies in Asia, who can conclude that the American security guarantees they have long trusted are worthless – and then seek their own deals with China. “
Another perspective for Rudd’s argument – perceived legitimacy among voters – can be found in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’s last summer poll, which asked the public to evaluate their support for the hypothetical U.S. defense of Indo-Pacific allies, including Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.
Respondents returned an average score of 6.69 out of 10 for Taiwan’s defense, while Japan and South Korea obtained 6.88 and 6.92, respectively, according to the CSIS survey.
By abolishing term limits, Chinese President Xi plans to remain in power until 2035, Rudd predicted in Foreign Affairs. The Chinese leader would be 82 years old and the same age as Mao’s death.
The biggest challenge to Xi’s goals will come from America and, in the short term, from President Joe Biden and his government. That includes experienced Chinese experts in the State and Defense departments, but also in the intelligence service, said Rudd. Beijing also fears Biden’s credible pronouncement of bringing together the world’s leading democracies to balance China’s growing influence in international bodies, as well as in trade and technology.
It is for this reason that the Chinese leadership would have preferred a re-election of Trump, argues Rudd, citing the former president’s failures, especially in diplomacy, as areas that Xi was able to explore.
However, recent pronouncements from Washington and Beijing make it clear that strategic competition between the world’s two largest economies is unlikely to slow down under Biden, even if China tries to ease tensions with the US as a tactic, Rudd said.
“Biden intends to prove that Beijing is wrong in its assessment that the United States is now in irreversible decline,” he wrote.
Rudd concludes by asking the US and China to develop a framework for “managed strategic competition”, a concept he said would be difficult in the current climate, but not impossible.
Such an agreement would be “anchored in a deeply realistic view of the global order” and would require adherence from the highest levels of government in Washington and Beijing, said Rudd.
This would include “strict limits” and concessions on both sides, he added, suggesting that Washington should adhere more closely to Beijing’s “one China” position and end diplomatic visits to Taipei.
In return, he said Beijing should reduce military activity in the Taiwan Strait and cease militarization of the islands in the South China Sea, where the freedom of US navigation operations could also be reduced.
Despite many who may doubt the feasibility of such an arrangement, it was necessary to prevent conflict or war, Rudd argued.
“While such a structure is difficult to build, doing so is still possible – and the alternatives are likely to be catastrophic,” he wrote. “It is better for the two countries to operate within a jointly managed competition structure than to have no rules.”
No military conflict in the Taiwan Strait until 2030 would be a sign of success, said Rudd. The opposite would represent “the most demonstrable example of a failed approach,” he added.
Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images