FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – These are the late winter and early spring annual trips: factory workers in China returning home for the Lunar New Year; American college students taking road trips and going to the beach during spring break; Germans and Britons fleeing monotonous skies because of the Mediterranean sun at Easter.
Everything canceled, in doubt or under pressure because of the coronavirus.
Amid fears of new variants of the virus, new restrictions on movement emerged as people began to look to the future, which is often a busy time of year for travel.
This means more suffering for airlines, hotels, restaurants and tourist destinations that have been struggling for more than a year in the pandemic, and a slower recovery for countries where tourism is a big slice of the economy.
Colleges in the United States have canceled spring break to discourage students from traveling. After Indiana University in Bloomington replaced her regular break with three “wellness days,” student Jacki Sylvester abandoned plans to celebrate her 21st birthday in Las Vegas.
Instead, it will mark the landmark closer to home, with a day at the casino in French Lick, Indiana, just 50 miles away.
“I was really looking forward to leaving here for an entire week. I wish I could drink and have fun – see the casinos and everything – and honestly see another city and just travel a little bit, ”she said.
“At least it’s allowing us to have a little fun for a day in a condensed version of our original Vegas plans. Like, I’ll still be able to celebrate. … I’m just forced to do this closer to home. “
At China’s bus and train stations, there is no sign of the annual Lunar New Year race. The government urged the public to avoid travel after further outbreaks of coronavirus. Only five of the 15 security gates at Beijing’s cavernous central railway station were open; the crowds of travelers who normally camp in the vast square outside were absent.
The holiday, which begins on February 12, is often the largest movement of humanity in the world, as hundreds of millions of Chinese leave the cities to visit their hometowns or sights or travel abroad. For millions of migrant workers, it is usually the only chance to visit their hometowns during the year. This year, the authorities are promising an extra payment if they stay.
The government says people will make 1.7 billion trips during the holiday, but that represents a 40% drop from 2019. Departures from Beijing and Chengdu in the southwest are expected to fall 75%, according to associations of travels.
Each news cycle seems to bring new restrictions. US President Joe Biden has reinstated restrictions on travelers from more than two dozen European countries, South Africa and Brazil, while people leaving the US now need to test negative before returning.
Canada has banned flights to the Caribbean. Israel has closed its main international airport. Travel to the European Union is severely restricted, with entry bans and quarantine requirements for returning citizens.
For air travel, “the short-term outlook has definitely darkened,” said Brian Pearce, chief economist at the International Air Transport Association. Governments invested US $ 200 billion in strengthening the industry.
The United Nations World Tourism Organization says international arrivals dropped 74% last year, eliminating $ 1.3 trillion in revenue and putting 120 million jobs at risk. A panel of experts from the OMT presented a mixed outlook for 2021, with 45% expecting a better year, 25% without changes and 30% a worse year.
“The overall prospects for a recovery in 2021 appear to have worsened,” said the organization.
In Europe, the prospects are obscured by the delay in the launch of vaccines and the spread of new variants.
This means that “there is an increasing risk of losing another summer tourist season,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics. “This would severely damage the Greek economy and substantially delay recoveries in Spain and Portugal.”
Travel company TUI is offering vacation packages in the sun in Greece and Spain, but with extensive cancellation clauses to attract cautious customers. Places that can be reached by car, such as the German North Sea islands and the Alps, are benefiting to some extent because they offer a chance for isolation. The German Holiday Homes Association says that popular places are already 60% booked for July and August.
Thailand, where about a tenth of the population depends on tourism for their livelihoods, requires a two-week quarantine for foreigners in designated hotels that cost about $ 1,000 or more. So far, only a few dozen people a day choose to visit. Tourist arrivals dropped to less than 7 million in Thailand in 2020 and are forecast to reach just 10 million this year, up from 40 million in 2019.
Bali, the tourist island of Indonesia, deported dozens of foreigners and began restricting foreign arrivals on January 1, as the number of coronavirus cases has exceeded 1 million.
Gerasimos Bakogiannis, owner of the Portes Palace hotel in Potidaia, in the northern Halkidiki region of Greece, said he would not even open for Western Easter on April 4, but would wait a month for Greek Orthodox Easter on May 2 – and , he hopes, the beginning of a better summer.
“If this year is like last year, tourism will be destroyed,” he said.
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McDonald contributed from Beijing and Smith from Indianapolis. Elaine Kurtenbach contributed from Bangkok and Costas Kantouris from Thessaloniki, Greece.