“Wonder Woman 1984”, the superhero sequel starring Gal Gadot, debuts on HBO Max – and in theaters – on Christmas Day, while “Soul”, a Pixar animated film starring the vocal talents of Jamie Foxx and Tina Fey, debuts exclusively on Disney +. Both will be available for free to subscribers.
The battle between the two films is less about bragging rights. Without traditional measures of success, such as box office sales or rent on demand, we may never really know which film was most popular with the public, or even about the financial results of the films.
Instead, the confrontation is a perfect symbol of how radically things have changed in Hollywood this year and how much they can continue to change as we move into 2021.
A box office battle without a box office
“Without the ability to take these films to theaters behind traditional global marketing campaigns, these two films are turning to the only viable option their studios now have: living rooms,” said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice. .com, to CNN Business. “This is a situation that no one could have predicted a year ago. We are talking about an extraordinarily unique circumstance that has affected two fundamental brands in the entertainment world.”
Robbins added that, for consumers, having these movies available on streaming services is a way of “being careful” and at the same time obtaining “uplifting entertainment.” For the studios, it is a way of “testing how to potentially navigate future releases”.
This is especially true for the two studios behind the films: Warner Bros and Disney.
Studios, two of the oldest in Hollywood, plunged headlong into the streaming market this year as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted Hollywood productions and devastated cinemas.
All of this comes after a year in which Hollywood experienced its future on demand. Universal started the trend in April, after the coronavirus outbreak, launching the Trolls World Tour directly to digital. Other studios followed suit.
What will happen to “Wonder Woman 1984” and “Soul” this weekend could give the two studios a better understanding of how to release other great films going forward.
Zak Shaikh, vice president of programming and entertainment at research-based media company Magid, believes the shift is basically bringing in new subscribers, which is the lifeblood of these growing services, while keeping current ones happy enough not to cancel.
“These are huge titles and part of big brands,” he told CNN Business. “For HBO Max, it is an effective way to get new subscribers. For Disney +, which is more established, this is a way to keep existing customers happy and to ensure that ‘Soul’ is seen by as wide an audience as possible.”
The end of ‘The No. 1 Movie in the World’?
Robbins said it is difficult to speculate about the future of tracking box office numbers, but he would not be surprised if metrics evolve along with all the other changes that are taking place in Hollywood now.
“There was a time when box office records were not the headline thieves they are today, so it is easy to see some potential evolution in how they will be seen if more films choose a streaming strategy in a post-pandemic world,” he said. “Counting ticket sales has its own set of complications, but that task is a simplified walk in the park compared to determining how studios count flows.”
Although an increasing number of Hollywood studios are focusing on streaming, things could return to normal next Christmas, thanks to a large part of the population being vaccinated. This could help bring back cinemas – and with them, the good old box office battles that count ticket sales instead of flows.
“Hollywood has effectively adapted to the pandemic and was fortunate enough to have the means of distribution for it,” said Shaikh. “What I don’t think it says is that it is necessarily a sign of things to come. Next year, you may well see a recovery with audiences desperate to return to a real theatrical experience.”