Women’s Bracketology – Why South Carolina is the new No. 1 seed overall

What happened last week in women’s college basketball could set everything up for the rest of the 2020-21 season.

Over a four-day period, nine teams ranked in the AP Top 25 lost. As a result, margins of error have become smaller and teams that appeared to have firm control in place in the women’s NCAA bracket are no longer so firmly in control. Baylor, Oregon, Texas A&M and Texas have more to ask than they did seven days ago.

Losing good teams means many seed changes in female Bracketology. The Ducks dropped from number 3 to number 4. South Florida has become one of the top 16. The Aggies fell from line number 2 and Michigan jumped to number 3.

While it may not seem like much of that movement occurred in the # 1 seed line – Louisville replaced NC State while South Carolina, UConn and Stanford remained # 1 seed – the shift that occurred between these teams could impact the down the road a lot.

Stanford’s (11-1 overall) fall to Colorado on Sunday was the most seismic defeat among the top 25 teams. The Buffaloes were coming into play 5-6 and had not defeated Cardinal since 2002. Stanford’s protection as the best overall team allowed him to continue as number 1 seed, but the Cardinal lost some breath. They are now in third place overall, with UCLA next on the lineup.

Stanford looked so dominant until Sunday, but a loss to the Bruins on Friday would bring down the number one cardinal. But now, Stanford came on Monday as the second highest ranked team on the NET, with more quality wins than any other team in the country except South Carolina.

The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is the new quantitative measure that the selection committee is using as part of the means to choose and distribute teams for the tournament. NET replaces RPI as the basic data that the committee would use to evaluate teams. It is more comprehensive and should be a welcome change. Like RPI, NET has a results-oriented component, but it also integrates with the place where the game was played. NET goes further by adding an efficiency index, which measures how many points per possession a team scores, plus how many it gives up.

So, now the classification from which the committee will work depends on who you defeated (RPI), who you defeated, where you defeated them and how you played while defeating them.

The NCAA started releasing assessments from NET two weeks ago, and they impacted the way the rest of the No. 1 seeds stirred this week.

South Carolina is the new No. 1 general team in Bracketology. NET’s third place coming in on Monday, Gamecocks has the second toughest calendar in the country and six wins against teams in NET’s top 30. Gamecocks at No. 1 overall was not a difficult decision. In this turn of the season, South Carolina (10-1) – despite their only loss – did more than any team in the country.

UConn (6-0), which is number 1 on the NET, is number 2 overall seed in Bracketology. The Huskies’ calendar suffered a lot because of COVID-19 – the games against Louisville and Baylor were canceled – and there is a perception that the level of competition that UConn faced was not the first caliber. This perception is simply not true.

The average net rating of the teams UConn defeated is 108. This is better than all, except three other teams in the top 10. (That number is 104 for Louisville, the fourth number 1 this week.) UConn, who is also second nationally in points for possession attack and third in defense, has played a schedule compatible with any of the other highly rated teams in the country and deserves to be the number one seed.

Louisville (12-0) replaced NC State (10-0) as the final No. 1 seed due to two factors: the Cardinals won another quality victory by eliminating Florida State on Sunday, and Wolfpack, due to COVID-19 problems of protocol, I haven’t played since January 3rd. The NC status was only exceeded on the S curve.

The Wolfpack could also have been passed by Baylor if Lady Bears had not lost to the state of Iowa on Saturday. Instead, Baylor is now closer to a number 3 seed than a number 1 seed. Losing that game and its 61-game winning streak at home is yet another of those defeats that will continue to impact the Lady Bears throughout the season in the quest to maximize your seed.