In part, Baker’s downfall can be attributed to the problematic implantation of the vaccine in his state, which had a slow start and was marked by a failure in a very public website for the vaccine reservation system. However, there are also signs that another factor may be contributing to its decline: Donald Trump’s departure from the White House.
Extremely unpopular in Massachusetts, Trump served as a counterpoint to Baker, who was able to establish his own political independence – and win over Democratic voters – by frequently criticizing his Republican colleague.
Baker is not the only Republican governor of the blue state who has seen his popularity affected by coronavirus fatigue and Trump’s absence from the news cycle. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Vermont Governor Phil Scott – two other Trump critics who have long ranked among the nation’s most popular governors – have also seen their numbers plummet in the post-Trump era.
“If you happen to be a Republican governor and kind of disagree with Trump, you are likely to be very, very popular with the other side, much more than if you agreed with the main party. I think that explains a lot,” said Matthew Baum , researcher at the Covid States Project.
Between their moderate politics and positions resistant to Trump, the three governors managed to become more popular among Democratic voters than among Republicans.
Seventy-three percent of Democrats approved Scott’s performance in office in September, compared to just 65% of Republicans, according to a VPR-Vermont PBS poll. In Maryland, a March poll from Goucher College reported Hogan’s approval rating among Democrats at 81 percent, compared with just 65 percent among Republicans.
“There is no one that a Democrat loves more than a Republican criticizing Trump,” said researcher Rich Clark of Vermont Castleton University.
In Baker’s case, his position within his own party is so tense that if he seeks a third term next year, a Republican close to the state leadership of the Republican Party is preparing to challenge him in the primaries.
Like Baker, Hogan and Scott managed to maintain a significant distance from the former president while he was in office – they all made it clear that, while they might have been on the same team as Trump, they certainly weren’t on the same page.
Before the pandemic, the three governors were frequent critics of Trump. Hogan was singled out as a potential primary challenger for Trump in 2020. Scott came to call Trump “racist” when the president told four black Democratic congressmen to “go back” to where they came from.
After the election, each confessed that they did not vote for Trump in November. Hogan wrote on behalf of Ronald Reagan. Scott said he voted for Biden. Baker voided his ballot for the second consecutive election.
Hogan continues to speak openly against Trump, saying the Republican Party will fight to rebuild as long as the former president remains involved in politics.
“I don’t know if I have a future in the Republican Party, but I care about the future of the Republican Party,” said Hogan in an interview this month at POLITICO’s The Fifty: America’s Governors event.
That kind of opposition stance contributes to good politics in Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont, which were ranked as Trump’s three weakest states in 2020 – he won just under a third of the votes in each.
“I am a Republican elected in the bluest state in America – twice – because I am the exact opposite of that and because I win a large number of black voters and suburban, independent and Democratic women,” said Hogan. “I think I have something to add to the conversation about how Republicans can have a winning message and how you can do to win more people on our side of the discussion. “
The Covid States Project concluded that support for the three governors still remains relatively high compared to their counterparts in other states. The trio often acted earlier or more aggressively than Trump to end their states and slow the spread of the coronavirus, positions that were widely welcomed in their blue states. Massachusetts, Vermont and Maryland, for example, instituted masking mandates when Trump rejected facial coverage.
But in the face of the pandemic’s last major logistical challenge – the distribution of the vaccine – Baker, Hogan and Scott saw their approval ratings drop.
“Baker’s previous perception of a very capable manager and a reliable leader has been seriously undermined by the way he underperformed in the past few months,” said Boston Republican strategist Todd Domke.
Asked about his drop in polls, Baker pointed to coronavirus fatigue in an interview with WGBH News. “I think everyone is anxious for the pandemic to end. I am,” he said. “I don’t know why the others wouldn’t be, either.”
The approval rate for Hogan’s coronavirus fell from 78 percent in late April to 64 percent in February, according to the Covid States Project, which is a joint effort by Northeastern University, Harvard University, Rutgers University and Northwestern University. Scott’s coronavirus approval rate fell the least – about 8 percentage points, from 78% in August to 70% in February.