Chinese ships accommodated themselves as unwanted guests who did not want to leave.
As the days went by, more appeared. They were simply fishing boats, China said, although they did not appear to be fishing. Dozens even tied themselves in organized rows, seeking shelter, it was claimed, from storms that never came.
Not long ago, China asserted its claims in the South China Sea, building and fortifying artificial islands in waters also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. His strategy now is to reinforce these outposts, swarming the disputed waters with ships, effectively challenging other countries to expel them.
The objective is to achieve with an overwhelming presence what was not possible through diplomacy or international law. And, to some extent, it seems to be working.
“Beijing clearly thinks that if it uses enough coercion and pressure for a long period of time, it will squeeze South East Asians,” said Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, which accompanies developments in the South China Sea. “It’s insidious.”
China’s actions reflect the country’s growing confidence under its leader, Xi Jinping. They could test the Biden administration, as well as Beijing’s neighbors in the South China Sea, which are increasingly dependent on China’s strong economy and the supply of Covid-19 vaccines.
The latest incident occurred in the past few weeks around the Whitsun reef, a boomerang-shaped resource that rises above the water only at low tide. At one point in March, 220 Chinese ships were anchored around the reef, sparking protests in Vietnam and the Philippines, which have claims there, and in the United States.
Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana called their presence “a clear provocation”. Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused China of violating the country’s sovereignty and demanded that ships leave.
Last week, some had left, but many remained, according to satellite photos taken by Maxar Technologies, a Colorado-based company. Others moved to another reef just a few kilometers away, while a new swarm of 45 Chinese ships was located 100 miles northeast on another Philippine-controlled island, Thitu, according to satellite photos and Filipino officials.
“The Chinese ambassador has a lot to explain,” said Lorenzana in a statement on Saturday.
The build-up sparked tensions in a region that, along with Taiwan, threatens to become another critical point in the increasingly intense confrontation between China and the United States.
Although the United States did not take a stand on disputes in the South China Sea, it criticized China’s aggressive tactics in that country, including the militarization of its bases. For years, the United States has sent Navy warships on routine patrols to challenge China’s declared right to restrict any military activity in the country – three times only since President Biden took office in January.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken expressed support for the Philippines regarding the presence of Chinese ships. “We will always support our allies and defend the international rule-based order,” he I wrote on twitter.
The accumulation highlighted the further erosion of control over disputed waters by the Philippines, which could become a problem for the country’s president, Rodrigo Duterte.
The country’s defense department dispatched two aircraft and a ship to Whitsun Reef to document the increase, but did not intervene otherwise. It is not known whether Vietnamese forces responded.
Critics say China’s contempt for Philippine claims reflects the failure of Duterte’s efforts to please the Communist Party leadership in Beijing.
“People need to hear their own commander-in-chief, a coward for China, but an aggressor for his own people,” said Duterte’s staunchest political opponent, Senator Leila de Lima. Mr. Duterte did not address the issue publicly, although his spokesman suggested that quiet efforts to neutralize the situation were underway.
China rejected the protests. A Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, said Chinese fishermen “have been fishing in the waters near the reef all the time”. Philippine officials and experts said there was no evidence of this.
Whitsun Reef is part of an atoll known as Union Banks, about 175 nautical miles from Palawan, an island in the Philippines. The Philippines, China and Vietnam claim that the atoll is within their country’s exclusive economic zones, but only China and Vietnam have established a regular physical presence there, giving everyone a safe, if not legal, advantage to exercise the control.
Vietnam has occupied four islets in the atoll since the 1970s, while China has built two outposts on previously submerged reefs as part of its program, underway since 2014, to dredge seven artificial islands. Two of the outposts – Grierson Reef, occupied by Vietnam, and Hughes Reef, occupied by China – are separated by less than three nautical miles.
An international court convened under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled in 2016 that China’s expansive claim to almost the entire South China Sea had no legal basis, although it did not quite divide the territory between its various claimants . China based its claims on a “nine-stroke line” drawn on maps before the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
A Philippine patrol first reported the large number of ships at Whitsun Reef on March 7. According to Poling, satellite photographs showed a regular, albeit lesser, presence of Chinese last year on the reef.
On March 29, 45 ships remained in Whitsun, according to a statement on Wednesday by the Western Philippine Sea-National Task Force, an agency that reports to the office of the Philippine president. The task force counted 254 ships, as well as four Chinese warships that day in Spratlys, an archipelago of more than 100 islands, islets and other outcrops between the Philippines and Vietnam.
The task force said the 254 vessels were not fishing, as Beijing says, but part of China’s maritime militia, an apparently civilian force that has become an integral instrument of China’s new maritime strategy. Many of these boats, while unarmed, are operated by reservists or others who comply with the orders of the Coast Guard and the People’s Liberation Army.
“They may be carrying out illegal activities at night and their persistent presence (agglomeration) can cause irreparable damage to the marine environment,” said the statement of the task force.
The presence of so many Chinese ships is intended to intimidate. “By having them there and spreading them across those stretches of water around the reefs that others occupy, or around oil and gas fields or fishing grounds, you are constantly pushing Filipinos and Vietnamese out,” said Poling.
“If you are a Filipino fisherman, you are always being harassed by these guys,” he said. “They are always maneuvering a little too close, blowing horns at you. At some point, you give up and stop fishing there. “
Patrols and declarations aside, the Duterte government does not seem anxious to confront China. Its spokesman, Harry Roque, echoed Chinese claims that the ships were only temporarily sheltering.
“We hope the weather will improve,” he said, “and in the spirit of friendship, we expect your ships to leave the area.”
The Philippines has become increasingly dependent on Chinese trade and, in fighting the pandemic, on generosity.
On Monday, the first batch of Covid-19 vaccines arrived in Manila, coming from China with great fanfare. By May, four million doses are expected to arrive, some of them donations. China’s ambassador, Huang Xilian, attended the vaccines’ arrival and later met with Duterte.
“China is invading our maritime zone, but mitigating it by sending us vaccines,” said Antonio Carpio, a retired Supreme Court judge who specializes in the maritime dispute. “It is part of the public relations effort to ease the coup, but we shouldn’t fall for it.”