As Israel emerged from its fourth election in two years with the country’s persistent political stalemate seemingly uninterrupted, an unlikely figure emerged as a potential kingmaker in the Jewish state: an Arab Islamic politician and former dentist.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing allies have failed to win a parliamentary majority that would keep Netanyahu in power, according to the final vote count released on Thursday.
The anti-Netanyahu camp also lacks a collective majority and is composed of a wide spectrum of parties apparently united only in their desire to remove Israel’s prime minister for a longer time.
Netanyahu and his allies won 52 seats in the 120-seat parliament known as the Knesset, while his opponents won 57.
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For both sides to get the 61 seats needed to form a majority coalition government, they will likely need support from the United Arab List, a small Islamic party that won four seats in this week’s elections. This put Mansour Abbas, his leader, in the spotlight as a figure who theoretically could have the keys to power.
No Arab party has ever served in an Israeli government, and the chances of that happening now still look slim, despite the stakes.
Reuven Hazan, a professor in the political science department at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, says that Netanyahu could muster a mathematical majority, but that putting ultra-Orthodox and far-right legislators in an Arab Islamic party just didn’t work ideologically.
“To put an Islamic feast together with the two ultra-religious Jewish feasts, this is going to be a miracle of Passover,” he said, as Israel prepared to celebrate the holiday this weekend.
“Ideologically, I think you are exaggerating too much, too far,” he added.
Abbas comes from the Islamic Movement in Israel, inspired by the Muslim Brotherhood movement across the region. In 1996, the movement partly split due to a disagreement over whether to participate in Israeli politics.
One branch, led by a cleric currently in prison for inciting terrorism, boycotted Israeli policy. A second arm, to which Abbas belongs, has taken a more conciliatory stance.
The United Arab List, also known by the Hebrew name Raam, is supported by religiously conservative elements from the Arab minority of 2 million Israelis, about 20% of the country’s 9.2 million population.
They are Israeli citizens and are increasingly present in professional jobs, from medicine to microfinance. However, they also face discrimination on issues such as housing and budget allocation, according to Adalah, a human rights organization and legal center.
For Netanyahu, approaching Abbas would require him to seek the support of a population that had already defamed.
In 2015, Netanyahu warned his right-wing base that the Arabs were going to the polls “en masse.” In 2019, he posted almost an hour-long updates on Facebook, calling on his supporters to fight what he portrayed as a dangerously high turnout among Arab voters.
Before Tuesday’s election, however, Netanyahu tried to woo the Arab vote while seeking re-election.
Abbas suggested that he is open to negotiations with pro or anti-Netanyahu groups.
“For us, whoever wants to contact us, we will be happy to talk to him and raise our positions and demands,” he said on Wednesday in an interview with the Israeli news site Ynet.
However, it was not clear whether Netanyahu would be able to convince any of his right-wing allies to agree to serve alongside an Islamic Arab party.
“A right-wing government will not be formed on the basis of Mansour Abbas’s United Arab List. Full stop, ”Bezalel Smotrich, leader of an alliance of extreme right parties known as the Zionist Religious Party, said on social media on Thursday.
The Zionist Religious Party includes a new incarnation of the Kahanist movement, inspired by an American rabbi who advocated a Jewish theocracy and the forced removal of Palestinians.
Even with Abbas, Netanyahu would probably also need to secure the support of the former adviser who became critical Naftali Bennett.
Bennett, a hard-line nationalist, also made no commitment to either side. The Associated Press, however, said it had ruled out an alliance with Abbas. A spokesman for Bennett did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Although Netanyahu’s political future is at risk once again, he is still on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust. He denies all bad deeds. The court case weighs heavily on political negotiation, with many opponents saying he shouldn’t rule the country during the trial.
It is not just the elements of the Israeli right that have rejected working with Arab parties to break the endless electoral stalemate.
Before last year’s election, centrist Blue and White leader Benny Gantz said he would not include the Joint List – an alliance of Arab parties that then included Raam – in his government, citing disagreements with his leadership on national and security issues.
“They make up 21.22% of the Israeli population,” said Mansour Nasasra, senior professor of Middle East politics and international relations at Ben Gurion University in Negev, referring to the country’s Arab citizens.
“This is a large minority. They have a say in Israeli politics. They cannot ignore this forever, ”he added.
Nasasra said he was skeptical that Abbas could choose Israel’s next prime minister because of differences on the Israeli right.
“Basically, they have to count on him. Otherwise, there is no government, ”he said, referring to Netanyahu and his allies.
“But it is unlikely to happen. They will perhaps decide to go to another election, instead of depending on an Islamic party to form a government ”.