What appears to be a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has hit Michigan, the New York area and New England, and experts are unsure whether it will remain contained.
“The United States has entered the fourth wave of transmission, and that cannot be disputed. Whether it remains as small regional outbreaks, or if it spreads across the country, remains to be seen, ”said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco, on Friday at a meeting at the campus prefecture.
Nationally, there was an 8% week-over-week increase in the average daily number of new diagnosed coronavirus cases, rising to about 62,000 in the seven-day period that ended on Wednesday, federal officials said on Friday. The average daily number of new hospital admissions for patients with COVID-19 increased by 5% in the same period.
California, where case numbers have dropped to levels not seen since late last spring, is in a much better position. The state is reporting daily averages of 2,500 to 2,700 cases. (During the worst peak in the fall and winter, California reported 45,000 cases per day.) In addition, California had a coronavirus positivity test rate between 1% and 2% last week – compared to 16% in Michigan and 9% in New Jersey.
“Here in California, we are in much better shape – we don’t have a peak. But I would like to point out that we have stabilized and we are not seeing continued declines, ”said Rutherford.
He and others expressed concern about Florida, the state with the highest concentration of confirmed cases of the UK coronavirus variant, B.1.1.7, which is more transmissible and possibly more deadly than the conventional strain. Florida does not have a masking mandate across the state, and crowds of spring break revelers are raising fears that travelers will spread the UK variant further across the country. Florida last week had a 9% positivity rate and is rising.
“We will have to see how it plays out,” said Rutherford.
In Michigan, the increase has accelerated since the beginning of mid-March, said Rutherford, and appears to be heading towards a peak similar to the state’s winter peak. The Michigan wave appears to be linked to the UK variant and may have been precipitated by high school sports, said Rutherford.
“Elsewhere – in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware – there are a series of interconnected outbreaks, with more modest increases that appear to originate in the New York metropolitan area and spread to neighboring states. ”, Rutherford said.
Other national experts agreed with Rutherford’s concerns.
“We are going for the fourth wave. Cases are on the rise. Variants are increasing. Variants are more deadly, ”said Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Saturday on ABC’s“ Good Morning America ”program. “We just have to put up with it until a larger proportion – mainly of the vulnerable – is well vaccinated and more of us are vaccinated, or we will have a big fourth increase. We will have a fourth wave, unfortunately. How big and deadly? It depends on us. “
Some experts disagree, considering how many people in the U.S. have been vaccinated or have immunity because they survived COVID-19.
“I think there is enough immunity in the population so that you don’t see a real fourth wave of infection,” said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration, on Sunday on “Face the Nation. ”However, he added that there are indeed“ pockets of infection across the country, especially in younger people who have not been vaccinated and also in school-age children ”.
Gottlieb said he believes schools can remain open if they adhere to pandemic safety practices: “As an epidemiologist referred to this week, go to the ‘Harry Potter’ full and try to keep students within defined social groups so they don’t large groups get mixed up. “
California has the fourth highest number of cases in the country linked to the United Kingdom variant, according to federal data. A promising scenario predicts the spread of this variant in the state prevented by the California variant, B.1.427 / B.1.429, which has been more prevalent here.
“With luck, we will be able to dodge this bullet, because this [U.K. strain] it is a more transmissible strain and possibly a strain that causes more serious illnesses, ”said Rutherford.
More than 32% of Californians received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and more than 15% are fully vaccinated.
Recent data shows that the vaccines currently available still offer good protection against the new variants. Vaccines produce an immune response “much more” than needed for the conventional coronavirus strain, said Rutherford. Even when they show diminished efficacy against variants – such as South Africa’s B.1.351 and Brazil’s P.1 – vaccines produce an immune response “two to three times more than you need,” said Rutherford. “So far so good.”
Despite positive news about the vaccination, the chief health officer in Northern California’s most populous county, Santa Clara, warned that the decline in the number of daily cases is slowing.
“Now we are seeing our case rates flatten out and, in some cases … some indication that they are starting to go up. Therefore, we may have reached the lowest possible level, ”said Dr. Sara Cody, health officer and director of public health for Santa Clara County. “Unfortunately, we all still need to be very attentive and very cautious to avoid any wave or even a swell. We don’t want that to happen. “
The likelihood of another wave – or a milder “wave” – reaching California will depend on the supply of vaccines and the behavior of residents.
“Vaccines will help, but we need more supplies so we can get them out more quickly,” said Cody. “And we need people to wait a little longer: keep wearing your mask, postpone your trip, don’t dine indoors, don’t go to closed bars, don’t organize a meeting at your home. Even if it is permitted by state rules, do not do so. It’s not safe. Not yet.”
Health officials recognized the apparent contradiction in easing restrictions and, at the same time, warning about the increase in cases. However, some mixed messages are expected when dealing with a new virus, according to Dr. Muntu Davis, LA County health officer.
“This is naturally what happens in a pandemic,” Davis said on Friday. “As you begin to see how the virus acts, as you begin to see when you have new countermeasures, be it vaccines or treatments, then we start to learn more. But until we have this information, we have to act very carefully, because everyone is at risk ”.