Will international travel return in 2021? What we know now

(CNN) – There is hope: summer holidays abroad can take place in style this year.

The number of people fleeing their countries will start to increase in late spring and will increase further in the middle of the year, experts in the travel industry predict, as vaccines and risk-based security measures are launched more widely and coronavirus cases worldwide will start to fall again.
“In fact, I am quite confident that as of May 1st … we will all be in a much better world,” said Paul Charles, founder and CEO of London-based travel consultancy The PC Agency.

Vaccines and tests are the way to go, say Charles and other industry experts, but what is needed, perhaps so desperately, is greater consistency and coordination across borders.

“When you don’t have a globally coordinated approach, it’s very difficult for the industry to progress, especially when you have the rules of the game basically changing every day,” said Luis Felipe de Oliveira, director general of the International Airport Council (ACI) , a global commercial organization representing world airports.

The departure test is a component to make travel safer during the pandemic.

The departure test is a component to make travel safer during the pandemic.

Joseph Okpako / Getty Images

There is much more work to be done to define testing protocols that would allow global travelers to choose not to be quarantined and to find ways to share vaccination and testing information uniformly and safely across borders.

Sovereign nations still decide what is best for them individually, looking at their own health and economies, but progress has been made to make countries look more globally at the enormous economic strength that is travel.

A alphabet soup of agencies, organizations and companies (UNWTO, ICAO, ACI, WTTC, airlines and so on) collaborated on several sets of global guidelines and recommendations designed to make travel safer, easier and less confusing for one world of hungry consumers for a change of scenery.

ACI’s Oliveira says the summer’s recovery could mean that international air traffic reaches 50% to 60% of previous levels in most countries.

Here are some of the obstacles that travelers and industry will need to overcome as travel increases:

Eliminating quarantines

Mandatory – and mobile – quarantine requirements “are basically killing the process of restarting the industry,” said Oliveira.

When he spoke to CNN Travel, Oliveira was on the 12th of a 14-day quarantine in Montreal, after returning home from a business trip to the Dominican Republic followed by a personal trip to Mexico. He has been quarantined four times in the past seven months, spending 56 days at home without the possibility of leaving.

This kind of investment of time, along with the confusion surrounding requirements – getting to and from home – are major impediments for people who would otherwise be willing to travel. Security is essential, but those in the industry are advocating a more differentiated and layered approach.

Travelers at a hotel in Melbourne, Australia, in December, had to be quarantined after returning from abroad.

Travelers at a hotel in Melbourne, Australia, in December, had to be quarantined after returning from abroad.

WILLIAM WEST / AFP / Getty Images

A testing mechanism is needed to avoid quarantines, says Tori Emerson Barnes, executive vice president of public relations and politics for the national nonprofit US Travel Association, which has advocated a science and risk-based approach to reopening international travel ” in particular, considering quarantine elimination if you have the correct test protocol in place. ”

Although vaccines are critical, Oliveira and others say the travel industry absolutely cannot wait to accelerate until vaccines are fully administered globally, making testing an essential part of the equation for safer travel in the short term.

Barnes mentioned a two-level test regime 72 hours before departure and again after arrival as a possible standard, and she cited a pilot test program in Hawaii – where a 10-day quarantine can be bypassed on most islands with results negative test results – – as an example of where testing outside the quarantine generated demand.

While US Travel encourages people to get vaccinated and test in places that require quarantine, the association is not looking for general requirements for access, Barnes said. “We wouldn’t say that you need a vaccine to travel.”

She recognizes that determining who is responsible for creating and implementing consistent protocols is a challenge. “The government doesn’t necessarily want,” she said, “and I don’t know if the private sector should have that responsibility.”

Even so, countries and organizations around the world are making progress in coordinating common approaches, says Alessandra Priante, regional director for Europe at the World Tourism Organization (WTO), a specialized United Nations agency.

A coordinated form of testing is already being implemented in a number of cases, and the next step at the global level is tracking, says Priante, “to ensure that we are able to share a certain amount of data, because if we don’t make it share the data, so we’re not really able to have all the information that we must Tue.”

The travel industry cannot afford to wait until vaccines are distributed globally to grow.

The travel industry cannot afford to wait until vaccines are distributed globally to grow.

Patrick T. Fallon / AFP / Getty Images

Get vaccinated … and prove it

Some of this information probably refers to vaccines. The UK vaccination program is well underway. Other countries have also made significant progress and the United States’ program is growing slowly.

Travelers’ confusion may also increase as more people start to move around in the spring and additional requirements come into play for negative tests and vaccination vouchers.

Australia, for example, has just announced that it will require negative PCR Covid tests for all travelers, and airline Qantas has suggested that soon all international passengers may be required to have a vaccination certificate.

We need a harmonized global approach to accurately and safely recognize and share information about vaccination and testing, said Oliveira.

Current practices – involving printed documents from unknown laboratories in languages ​​that may be unknown to those who inspect them or a tangle of unconnected databases worldwide – are less than ideal.

That’s why ACI supports the use of health apps like CommonPass, a tool that would allow travelers to share laboratory results and vaccination records without revealing other personal health information. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is also working on a digital Travel Pass platform.

Even when vaccines become widely available, not everyone will take them and researchers are evaluating whether the virus can still be transmitted by vaccinated people. Masking, social detachment, sanitation and other layers of security will still be part of daily life – and travel – for a long time.

Travel bubbles - like the anticipated two-way corridor between New Zealand and Australia - are among the tailor-made measures designed to restore some international travel.

Travel bubbles – like the anticipated two-way corridor between New Zealand and Australia – are among the tailor-made measures designed to restore some international travel.

Jorge Fernández / LightRocket / Getty Images

Measures meanwhile

A perfect international trip will not happen overnight.

While we wait for the decline in coronavirus cases and for more global coordination around safer and less confusing international travel, destinations and corporations are increasingly launching their own interim solutions.
Delta Air Lines is testing a handful of quarantined flights tested by Covid for the Netherlands. These flights employ a combination of the gold standard PCR test and the rapid antigen test before boarding.
Oliveira sees the rapid test of antigens as a potential aid in the recovery of the sector. Although considered less accurate, antigen testing is also much faster and less expensive than molecular testing as a risk management layer.
Iceland and Hungary have adopted the concept of “immunity passports”, allowing people who have been infected with Covid-19 and recovered to enter.

Unfortunately, like most things related to Covid, these measures are subject to change.

“The corridors can be useful if they are consistent, but then again, they are going up and down, opening and closing in a short time and that hasn’t helped consumers at all,” said Paul Charles, the travel consultant.

Ultimately, travelers would like to mix and mingle safely with the rest of the world.

Ultimately, travelers would like to mix and mingle safely with the rest of the world.

ROBIN UTRECHT / Stringer / Getty

The big goal: to mix with strangers

Priante, from the OMT, hopes that the ups and downs will stabilize soon, because the world is losing.

“What I regret most is that all this tourism, which is to trust the unknown … the beauty of exploring, of finding someone you have never met from another culture, from another nation, is kind of waiting and at stake because people they are telling us ‘don’t trust anyone, cross the sidewalk, wear your mask, don’t mix’, “she said from her home in Madrid.

And while Priante and her colleagues took every precaution and continued to travel and work to face the global crisis that is threatening the industry’s livelihood, she wants to see more people traveling safely.

“We want to take the spirit of tourism back to people’s hearts. As tourism is building memories … and we want to go back to that, we want to become the industry of beautiful memories again.”

.Source