It is not guaranteed, but it is more like the winter months could turn cold, flu and COVID-19 season.
The vaccines promise to neutralize the new coronavirus, domesticating it in a way that does not cause serious illness and death, or threatens hospitals’ ability to deal with patients.
Herd immunity can be achieved in a few months, but what happens next is not easy to predict.
Will the COVID-19 ever go away entirely or is it here to stay?
Experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, say it is likely to remain and become an endemic disease – which often occurs at a predictable rate in a specific area, such as the common cold in North America or malaria in Africa – although circulate at much lower levels, produce milder symptoms and become much more controllable than when they first appeared.
“I doubt that we will eradicate that,” said Fauci in November.
When Nature magazine recently interviewed more than 100 immunologists, infectious disease researchers and virologists, 89% thought the new coronavirus would become endemic.
Dr. Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Health Security Center in Baltimore and spokesman for the Infectious Diseases Society of America, agrees.
“I never thought I would go. This is an efficient spreading respiratory virus that comes from a family of viruses, of which four others cause 25% of our common colds. It has established itself in the human population, ”said Adalja TODAY.
“But what will happen is that you will no longer be able to kill people at the rate you are currently doing. It will still be here – we will still see cases, we will still have problems with it – but it will never be a public health emergency as it is now. “
Adalja predicted that the new coronavirus would become the fifth seasonal coronavirus that people deal with every year, although the damage it does is severely limited.
If COVID-19 becomes seasonal, what will the season be?
It would probably coincide with the cold and flu season: “Coronaviruses in general tend to peak in the coldest months,” said Adalja.
The United States did not see this seasonality in 2020 because there was so much spread of COVID-19 and so little immunity to it when summer came that the warmer climate did not have much impact, he added.
Will people have to get an annual COVID-19 vaccine, similar to an annual flu vaccine?
This remains to be seen, with some experts inclined to “yes”.
People may need to be vaccinated against COVID-19 annually in the coming years, Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky told CNBC. The company requested emergency authorization for its vaccine candidate this month.
“This virus is showing an incredible capacity to mutate, to change, to adapt, in a sense, to everything we are putting against it,” Dr. Richard Besser, former acting director of the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Diseases told NBC News senior medical correspondent Dr. John Torres.
Even though current COVID-19 vaccines are less effective in blocking infection from South African and Brazilian variants, they can still prevent hospitalization and death, so they can function more like a flu vaccine in preventing serious illnesses, he noted Adalja.
Or it may be that a vaccine update is needed, and then the virus becomes more stable without the need to continually update the vaccine, he added.
But when it comes to the vaccine experience, it’s hard to compare it to what happens with the flu because the flu and COVID-19 are completely different viruses, Adalja warned.
What will happen to the tests, mask use and restrictions?
Experts predicted that the COVID-19 test would become more routine, similar to the way doctors test people for flu. “I don’t think you would see dedicated COVID-19 test sites after this season,” said Adalja.
The use of masks is likely to disappear, but Americans are likely to continue wearing facial covers during future flu and cold seasons – similar to what happens in many Asian countries, he added. The 2020-2021 flu season is virtually non-existent and has shown how masks and other precautions can be effective in preventing viral spread.
As soon as vulnerable populations are vaccinated with COVID-19 and hospitals don’t worry about being overwhelmed, restrictions on restaurants, gyms and other businesses will be lifted, Adalja predicted. But many adaptations implemented during the crisis – like better air filtration systems and better sanitation – are likely to remain in place; and telecommuting and telemedicine will continue to be popular.
“There will be many changes in society because of the pandemic,” said Adalja.
