Pep Guardiola and Manchester City must go through a difficult path to the club’s first Champions League final after the quarter-final and semifinal tie between Premier League leaders against Borussia Dortmund and the winners of the clash between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain.
With UEFA charting the way to the final in Istanbul drawing in the quarter and semifinals, Liverpool’s prospect of repeating the 2005 Champions League success at Ataturk Stadium depends on Jurgen Klopp’s team beating Real Madrid in the semi-finals, before facing the winner of the Chelsea-Porto tie. Before winning the Champions League in 2005, Liverpool beat Chelsea in the semifinals with Luis Garcia’s infamous “ghost goal”.
– UCL Draw: Real Madrid vs Liverpool, Bayern vs PSG
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The draw also keeps the prospect of an all-English final alive, with the possibility of a box office clash between Real and Bayern.
With the route to Istanbul now free, ESPN tried to predict how the final rounds will behave – and who will meet in the final on May 29.
Although Manchester City are the big favorites to overtake a team from Dortmund that are out of the top four in the German Bundesliga, everything could go terribly wrong for Pep Guardiola’s team if it doesn’t cancel out the threat from Erling Haaland.
The 20-year-old, whose father Alfie played for City between 2000-03, is a big summer target for Guardiola, but now he is the biggest threat to City’s prospects of reaching the semifinals. Haaland is the top scorer in this season’s competition with 10 goals and will not be bothered by City, but Dortmund also has the offensive talent of former City youth Jadon Sancho, who worries Guardiola and his players.
Dortmund’s weakness is in defense, having conceded nine goals this season in the competition. City, meanwhile, conceded just one goal in eight Champions League games: a goal in the 14th minute in City’s 3-1 win over Porto in October. But as impressive as City was, they didn’t face a Haaland-quality striker during a smooth run for the quarter-finals, so the tie is less clear than it looks on paper.
City’s general strength, with names like Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling, should lead them to progress, but Haaland can turn the confrontation inside out.
Who qualifies? Manchester City
1:15
Julien Laurens believes Dortmund’s quarter-final against Manchester City is interesting for Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland.
Although Porto shocked Juventus in the last round to reach the quarterfinals, the twice winner of the Champions League was the team that the other seven clubs wanted to draw.
Coach Sergio Conceição built a difficult and underestimated team at Estádio do Dragão, with Pepe, 38, leading the defense prominently against Juve. Sergio Oliveira’s threat in midfield worries Chelsea, but Thomas Tuchel’s team has changed since the German coach replaced Frank Lampard in January, having been undefeated for 13 games (all competitions). The impressive victory of the round of 16 over Atletico Madrid also highlighted his rise as a dangerous outsider in this season’s competition.
– Laurens: How Tuchel transformed Chelsea
Tuchel organized Chelsea defensively and is also starting to get the best out of Kai Havertz. Timo Werner is another player who is starting to act under Tuchel after fighting Lampard.
Although Porto has the ability and the coach to make Chelsea’s life difficult and put pressure on him until the end, it is difficult to see beyond the English club.
Who qualifies? Chelsea
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Julien Laurens explains why Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel are going to be ecstatic for playing Porto in the Champions League quarter-finals.
A repeat of last season’s final, which was won by Bayern in Lisbon, unquestionably shows the two favorites for this year’s competition face to face once again.
Bayern have outperformed all other clubs this season with 24 goals in eight games so far, but Hansi Flick’s team has shown vulnerability in the Bundesliga by losing twice – against Borussia Monchengladbach and Eintracht Frankfurt – in 2021. PSG have also been fighting for his usual performance in the form of victory, with Mauricio Pochettino’s team in an unknown second place in Ligue 1 behind leader Lille. But the elimination of Barcelona in the round of 16 was a major psychological obstacle overcome by PSG due to their previous weaknesses against elite clubs in Europe, and facing Bayern again came at a good time for the French team.
If Neymar can return to full form in time, after a long period with a thigh injury, he and Kylian Mbappe could bring Bayern down. But at this point, Bayern appears to be more likely to come out on top in the closest of the four qualifiers.
Who qualifies? Bayern Munchen
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Julien Laurens says PSG have a hard time being favorites to win, but they will not face that problem against Bayern.
It is a repeat of the Champions League finals of 1981 and 2018, but also a clash between two teams struggling to be in shape this season. Mohamed Salah’s reunion with Sergio Ramos for the first time since the Liverpool striker was injured by the Madrid captain in the 2018 final will be a fascinating sub-plot for this tie, but the result must be decided by which team will defend itself best.
Liverpool’s defensive crisis caused by the long-term injuries of Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez destabilized Klopp’s team, while the absence of captain Jordan Henderson in midfield also affected the results. Even so, Real leaked goals throughout the season, with Zinedine Zidane’s team suffering 10 in eight Champions League games. Liverpool, despite their problems, only allowed three goals in the competition this season.
The prospect of the draws being played at the tiny Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano do Real, on the club’s training ground, and the second leg in an empty Anfield, will also have an impact, because both teams usually have formidable support from the home in the latter Champions League stages.
This is a draw between an aged Real and an injured Liverpool, but if Salah and Sadio Mane are in good shape, Liverpool will win.
Who qualifies? Liverpool
SEMIFINAL PRESENTATION
Bayern Munich vs. Man City: If the quarterfinals go as planned, a Bayern v City clash in the semifinals will take place, with City once again on the most difficult path possible for the final.
Pep Guardiola has spent three years at Bayern trying unsuccessfully to win the Champions League and it will be 10 years since he last led a team to European glory after Barcelona’s victory over Manchester United at Wembley in 2011. City, of course, he never won the Champions League or reached the final and despite the incredible success he has won at Etihad since arriving in 2016, he continues to hope for glory in the biggest competition.
In terms of the quality of the teams and teams, there is little difference between City and Bayern, although the German club’s pedigree in the Champions League gives them an advantage. They were there and City was not, which is important in the finals, with City lacking the psychological strength to overcome a lower Lyon side in the quarterfinals last year.
The only area that can be decisive. With Sergio Aguero struggling to prepare for the entire season, City lack a reliable striker. Gabriel Jesus, was simply not considered a substitute. Meanwhile, Bayern have Robert Lewandowski, and the reliability of the Polish international means that the defending European champion is the favorite to reach the final.
Who qualifies? Bayern Munchen
Liverpool v Chelsea: This Premier League clash became a spiteful Champions League match during the 2000s, with Liverpool twice beating the London club in the semifinals in 2005 and 2007, before finally losing the third in 2008. This time, if Liverpool beat Real and Chelsea beat Porto, they could meet again at this stage for the fourth time.
Liverpool’s pedigree in the Champions League always counts in their favor, but this time they will not be able to count on a noisy and crowded Anfield due to the pandemic of COVID-19. Chelsea won their last game at Anfield in the Premier League earlier this month and Tuchel will believe he has the durability and confidence within his team to win again if they face each other in the semifinals.
Both teams have had their struggles this season, but Chelsea have now found their form and appear refreshed and strong with the new coach. If they face Liverpool in the semifinals, Chelsea will have the advantage of reserving a victory rematch in the 2012 final against Bayern Munich.
Who qualifies? Chelsea