“The potential exists for a significant severe climate,” said meteorologist Jason Holmes, of the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Birmingham, Alabama.
These types of tornadoes are those that remain constantly on the ground for a long period of time, unlike a typical tornado that could stay on the ground for just a few minutes.
The system that will be responsible for these strong storms is currently close to the west coast of the United States, but will make its journey through the Rocky Mountains and will eject into the plains in the middle of the week, allowing an atmospheric configuration conducive to the formation of dangerous storms.
“We have increasingly hot and humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will rise rapidly towards the north – these large-scale conditions are quite favorable for severe storms. We think that some of the minor details that we usually see on end days higher weekends, especially with significant tornado potential, will also be in place, “said Bill Bunting, Head of Forecasting Operations at Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
“This is a very strong system that we have been monitoring the potential for severe storms as it develops and moves northeast, from the plains to the Ohio valley,” Holmes told CNN.
Timing the storms
This next system will present the threat of storms as early as Tuesday night in much of Kansas, Oklahoma and in northeastern and central Texas.
The biggest risk, however, is likely to be during the early hours of Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado will be possible, but the main risks will be hail and strong winds.
There will also be a separate risk of some severe storms in the South during Tuesday day, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
“Our real focus day is now Wednesday. We can see a very widespread severe climate threat and potentially some severe peak storms,” said Bunting.
Wednesday to Wednesday night is expected to be the most active day in terms of heavy storms this week. Currently, there is an ‘increased risk’ for severe weather in eight southern states, according to the SPC. An ‘increased risk’ is a level 3 of 5 in terms of its potential severity. This includes states like Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama.
The SPC said an “increased risk” means “countless severe storms are possible”, and all threats are possible in Wednesday’s setting – tornadoes, large hail at least the size of a golf ball and intense winds of fur. minus 58 mph.
A morning round of downpours and potentially storms are currently scheduled to move through parts of the Gulf Coast states, but the main event will take place before the cold front from Wednesday afternoon until Wednesday night. Close to this cold front is where the most intense and tornado storms can occur.
There may be “potentially some severe weather waves, starting in the morning, then in the middle of the day and then later in the evening when the cold front arrives,” said Holmes when discussing the forecast for central Alabama, a region currently in “increased risk”.
The potential for multiple rounds of rain can lead to flooding in some places. Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, with some locations receiving more than 3 to 4 inches.
On Thursday, the risk of severe to severe storms will shift towards the east coast of the United States. The region from northern Florida to southern Virginia is being monitored by the SPC for this risk, but it is too early to know the exact timing and details of the threat.
Severe storms typical of the south
Strong storms are not uncommon in this part of the country and during this time of year. Historically, strong tornadoes in mid-March have been more prevalent in northern Mississippi and Alabama, which aligns with the storms forecast this week.
“The details will play a significant role in how things stay and where the storms happen. I think the important thing is to know that it is a typical start to the season, severe weather in the southeastern United States in the sense that the storms will be fast and they will continue after dark, “said Bunting.
“A dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the South is that they can occur in the middle of the night, when people are sleeping, as opposed to Tornado Alley storms, which normally become less severe after sunset,” said the meteorologist. CNN Chad Myers.
“It is very important to pay attention to the warning and not wait until you have a visual confirmation (of the storm),” said Bunting. “This is the time for people to have a plan in several ways to receive the warnings.”
