Defeats continue to pile up for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who dropped to 3-10 in the season after losing to the Orlando Magic by 97-96 in a Cole Anthony buzzer-buzzer.
Minnesota is now 1-9 in its last 10 games and has the second worst NBA record, behind only the Detroit Pistons. The Warriors have the choice of the first three Timberwolves protégés for 2021 in the first round as part of Andrew Wiggins’ switch, which has already proved to be quite one-sided. If the choice falls among the top three, the Warriors will have the 2022 unprotected choice of the Wolves.
While conventional wisdom may dictate that the Warriors want the Timberwolves to lose, but not too much, the NBA lottery’s reduced chances should make the Warriors expect the T-Wolves to continue to accumulate losses.
Beginning with the 2019 NBA Draft, the league reduced the chances for teams with the three worst records to share an equal (14 percent) chance of winning the first choice. Each of the top three has a 13.4 percent chance of getting the second choice and a 12.7 percent chance of winning the third, meaning that teams with the worst three records have a 40.1 percent chance to be in the top three, and a 59.9 percent chance of falling out of the top three.
Although being one of the three worst teams would give the Timberwolves a better chance of retaining their choice, it would give the Warriors a better chance of getting a choice in the top five than if Minnesota finished with the fifth, sixth or seventh worst record.
A team in the top three guarantees a choice from the top seven. The team with the worst record cannot choose out of the top five, the team with the second worst record cannot fall beyond the 6th position and so on.
Let’s say Minnesota ends with the NBA’s second worst record. That would give the Warriors a 59.1% chance of hitting choice # 4, 5 or 6. While, if the wolves finish with the sixth worst record, there is a 62.77 percent chance that the choice will fall between six and 10, a 9.62 percent chance of falling in fourth position and a 27.6 percent chance for wolves to keep their choice in the top three.
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As you can see, in this scenario, the Warriors have a better chance of getting a higher choice if the Timberwolves are among the worst three than if they finish somewhere in the five to eight range. The better the Wolves play, the greater the chances that the Warriors will make a choice out of the top five.
Of course, the more wolves lose, the better chance they have of retaining their pick. Really, losing Minnesota is in everyone’s interest, except for coach Ryan Saunders. And then it’s just a matter of how the ping pong balls bounce.
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