Brian Flores wasted no time declaring Tua Tagovailoa his starting quarterback after Saturday’s important victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, in which Tagovailoa Bank injected life into the Miami Dolphins, marking the start of the team’s comeback. It was no surprise; the coach has been on an unofficial QB rotation since he made the abrupt decision to hand over the keys to Tua, even calling Ryan Fitzpatrick a “substitute pitcher” over the weekend. But here’s the big question: is he doing the right thing?
We are not here to question Flores’ methods so far, however unorthodox they may be. Both Tagovailoa and Fitzpatrick seemed happy, we dare say jovial, about changing roles lately. And the Dolphins are 10-5, with a 70% chance of making it to the playoffs. There is a difference, however, between playing the hot hand in the regular season and doing the same in the postseason. It is one thing to trust Fitzpatrick for the magic of the fourth half against the Raiders and the Broncos. Another is to assume that there will be opportunities for salvation at the end of the game when you are playing against the Chiefs or the Bills in mid-January.
That’s why it makes perfect sense in the world for Flores to do what he hasn’t done since week 6: appoint Fitzpatrick as a starter.
Let’s start with the obvious: in almost all appearances, the 38-year-old gunslinger looked and played better than his novice colleague. This was immediately evident in Saturday’s case, in which Fitzpatrick instantly brought a field element to the Miami attack, the coordinator’s manual Chan Gailey apparently free and preserved the Miami playoff life. But it has also been apparent for months. It’s not that Tua has been bad. Fitzpatrick was clearly the best option.
Take a look at your 2020 numbers:
If you want to count the team records for / against the QBs, Tagovailoa has a technical advantage, since Miami was 6-2 in their matches, compared to 4-3 with Fitzpatrick, but even that category is essentially a wash, whereas Fitzpatrick led Saturday’s recovery. Other than that, the older statesmen in the QB room were better in all areas, except for interceptions. He launched more touchdowns, despite starting a game less. He pushed the ball into the field. He was more accurate. And he took fewer bags.
Tagovailoa’s TD-INT ratio is respectable, but 10 TDs in almost nine full games speak of their seemingly limited role under the center. The same is true for its low-level YPA brand, which ranks 30th among all QBs – even behind veterinarians like Cam Newton and Gardner Minshew. Or the dolphins would you like him to be a game manager who doesn’t take risks, or Tagovailoa can’t help but fit in that way.
The question in the future is twofold. First, Tagovailoa was not even efficient enough to earn praise as an elite and “safe” type of shipowner. His 65.1 completion percentage ranks 23rd in the NFL (Fitzpatrick ranks 8th), and he almost carries bags bad enough to make up for his low INT totals. Even at his best, he was not a field hitter who made the difference – an almost necessary necessity in today’s NFL, and even more so in the playoffs. It is the fault of unstable protection or a battered reception body, if desired, but why does Fitzpatrick seem so often immune to these problems?
Second, it’s okay if the Dolphins have won 10 wins by betting on the conservative QB game and high-score defense, but if they think the formula will guarantee a legitimate postseason run, they are probably wrong. His “D” as a whole was not a world champion; the unit is vigorous, no doubt, but it is still in 20th place in the total yards allowed per game (19th against the pass, 17th against the race). Flores can joke as much as he wants about reserving Fitzpatrick for the relief service, in which he thrived, but if Miami takes its current strategy to a playoff game against the Chiefs, Bills or Titans, it won’t have more than 45 minutes to lose close “with Tua.
The whole operation has even more pressing general questions (like, what does this say, even at the beginning, that your “star” QB should leave the field every time you absolutely need win?). But even the short term, you see, requires Fitzpatrick to take control. Is his floor lower than Tagovailoa’s? You can certainly make that case. Interceptions have always been a big problem for the newsboy. But there seems to be no doubt about which QB has the highest ceiling at the moment. Miami can play not lose now, but in the playoffs, you either play to win or you don’t win. It is growing up or going home, and nobody embodies it like Fitzpatrick.
Can Flores and Yours prove that we are all wrong? Crazy things happened (see: Fitzpatrick pass at the last minute to prepare for Miami’s victory on Saturday night). Could Tua still be the QB of the Dolphins of the future? Sure. But unless you’re playing with an undefined team like the Steelers at every turn of the postseason, it makes sense to end this promising season with QB, which offers more promise. Fitzpatrick brings the whole team around him to life when he enters. It looks exactly like the guy you want in the center when games matter most.