KANSAS CITY, Missouri – Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. raised a few eyebrows this week and caught the attention of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes when he tweeted “don’t be surprised when [the Browns] win.”
Mahomes “liked” the tweet before “not liking” it soon after, but Beckham may be on the right track: the Browns have an excellent chance of upsetting current Super Bowl champion Chiefs for at least a dozen reasons, many of which Vegas lost when they installed the Browns as 10-point underdogs for this Sunday afternoon clash.
The Browns, coming out of their convincing 48-37 rout for the Steelers, believe they can invade Arrowhead and take down the 14-2 Chiefs on their way to the AFC Championship Game, and no one can shake their faith.
Although it may seem like a proposition by David and Goliath, there are numerous reasons why this can happen. Here are some of them:
1. Mahomes hesitated on the stretch
Probably the best defender in the NFL, Mahomes has played his worst football of the season in his last four games and must revert to the guy he was before, or the Browns will seize the moment and rip the Superman cape off his back.
In his last four games, he has not scored above 100.0 after six consecutive games before that. His last game of the season, a 17 to 14 victory over the humble Falcons, he scored 79.5 – the lowest of the season. It’s not exactly the way you want to go to the playoffs.
His percentage of completion in his two final games was a miserable 55.32% and 54.55%. In his final three games, he launched four of his six interceptions, including three in a victory over the Dolphins. He also stumbled four times in his last five games – losing two – after stumbling only once in the previous ten games.
He has also been fired 10 times in his last five games, after only 12 in the previous 10.
Granted, the Browns’ defensive side, Myles Garrett, is in a similar drop out of COVID-19 with just 2.5 sacks in their previous six games, but predicts a big game in KC
If the Browns can hit Mahomes and shake him, they can make the current Super Bowl MVP look deadly.
2. Baker Mayfield is hot
Mayfield has been hotter than Mahomes in the final stretch, throwing 14 touchdowns and just one interception in his last 10 games. In fact, profootballfocus.com has ranked Mayfield above Mahomes since week 9.
Mayfield got it right in this game action, wide zone attack and has been dynamite. In the red zone, he is lethal, producing touchdowns on almost 75% of his trips. As Browns reserve quarterback Case Keenum told cleveland.com last week, Mayfield was built for the red zone with his strong arm, mobility and precision.
With arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, the best tandem running back in the league and some incredible receivers and tight end, Mayfield has become unstoppable in the red zone and can hurt the Chiefs if he gets there.
He must, however, not throw picks. The Chiefs are tied with the second highest number of interceptions in the NFL, with 16, including six from Tyrann Mathieu, who ranked third in the league. Winning the turnover battle is imperative.
3. Chiefs are the last in the NFL to defend the red zone
The Browns ‘success in the red zone matches well with the fact that the Chiefs’ defense is awful inside the 20. They allowed 36 touchdowns on 47 trips to 76.6% – the last in the NFL. In their last three games, they are allowing touchdowns on 81.82% of their opponent’s trips in the red zone.
Bosses can almost score at will. But the browns can keep up with them or overcome them, especially if they reach 20.
4. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt must have great days
I don’t agree with the notion that the Browns must run the ball to play away from Mahomes. I think they will need to score earlier and more often, and that they will play as much as they run, if not more.
But Chubb and Hunt will have chances of explosive moves against a running defense that is 21st overall and 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. The two defenders remain invigorated so that they can harm a team in the fourth period, and that will happen.
“It’s like a two-headed monster,” said Tyrann Mathieu, chief security officer, this week. “When one leaves the game, another enters. These two guys are elite, I think, in their own way. ”
What’s more, Hunt returns to Kansas City with extra excitement for the team that cut him in 2018 after a video appeared about his fight with a woman in his apartment building in downtown Cleveland.
Hunt still has many friends in the Chiefs and an ally in trainer Andy Reid, but he will dig deep into this game for the furious races that will be a burden for the Chiefs to deal with.
“I automatically play in anger, so I’m going to find her,” said Hunt. “You don’t have to worry about where I’m going to find you. ”
5. Denzel Ward, Ronnie Harrison and Kevin Johnson are back
Mahomes can hurt a defense with his legs, his crazy arm angles and his devastating passes without looking. He is light years better than Ben Roethlisberger, who shot 501 yards in the Browns’ 48-36 wild card victory on Sunday.
But there were three defensive defenders absent or severely limited in that game because of COVID-19 – Denzel Ward, Ronnie Harrison and Kevin Johnson. Harrison played only 11 snaps because he had a false positive COVID-19 test last week and missed the week’s only practice on Friday and Saturday because of it.
Ward and Johnson, activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday, lost their second consecutive games with the virus, which was a big reason for the Steelers to close with 12 points in the third quarter.
All three will be back in full-time service on Sunday, as long as Ward and Johnson are fully recovered. It is not the same secondary that allowed Mason Rudolph to complete 41, 41 and 47 yard passes two weeks ago. In addition, the backup MJ Stewart grabbed revolutionary intercepts in each of the last two games.
6. The Browns’ offensive line must dominate
With left guard Joel Bitonio back from the COVID reserve and right tackle Jack Conklin expected to play despite a hamstring injury last week, the Browns are back, and it is arguably the best offensive line. of the NFL. The Chiefs, by contrast, are 21st against the race and 19th in the NFL with just 32 sacks. The line dominated in Pittsburgh last week against TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and Co., despite not having Bitonio and losing Conklin in the second quarter.
7. Chiefs who lead the rusher Clyde Edwards-Helaire is sick
Edwards-Helaire was limited in practice on Wednesday, but then missed out on Thursday and Friday with hip and ankle injuries and is questionable. If he does not play, he will be replaced by the old enemies of the Steelers, Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams. Edwards-Helaire finished 19th in the NFL with 803 yards and ran for four TDs.
It does not help the Chiefs that they do not have the former Browns right player to face Mitchell Schwartz, who is on reserve due to a back injury. The line is not as good as the one that went to the Super Bowl last year.
8. Garrett predicts a game of monsters
Garrett, who finished 6th in the NFL with 12 sacks, had just 2.5 in his six games back from COVID-19, including none in the last two. He also did not force a fumble in his last eight games, after forcing four in his first seven. But there is no time like Sunday against the current Super Bowl MVP for a decisive game, and Garrett predicts he will have one.
“Absolutely,” he said on Friday. “This must be the game to do that. I am due. … One of the best teams in the league, if not the best team in the league, but they have to go in there and they have to prove it, and we have to prove that we can battle anyone ”.
Mahomes, who has been fired 10 times in his last five games, knows what he is up against.
“I have known Myles for a long time, being in high school and believe me, he was exactly the same size at school as he is now, so I’m glad I didn’t play with him back then, but he is an incredible player, he plays very hard and he has a lot of talent, ” Mahomes said on Wednesday. “They have talent throughout the defense and, therefore, for us, it is about executing at a high level, getting the ball out of my hands as I said and letting the boys play and we will have to play our best football if we want to win one football game at the end of the day. “
9. The Browns technical team
This is an excellent technical team, which can match the wit of Andy Reid and Co. Stefanski proved to be an excellent caller, and the Browns have excellent schemes on both sides of the ball. Defensive coordinator Joe Woods was part of a defense team that held Mahomes with 10 points until the fourth period of the Chiefs’ 31-20 win in the Super Bowl last year. The offensive lineman, Bill Callahan, is one of the best in the business, as well as others in his positions. They play quality football and don’t make many mental mistakes. If they play a fair game, they can win.
10. They nudged the bear again
Nobody gave the Browns a chance to defeat the Steelers, and nobody gave them a chance to take down the Super Bowl champions, which is exactly the way they like it. The Steelers receiver, Chase Claypool, predicted that they will “clap their hands” and the Chiefs receiver, Sammy Watkins, said ‘I wouldn’t go that far’ when a Twitter fan observed that the Browns would offer competition.
“We’ll see what he thinks after the game, ” said Hunt.
Mayfield thrives on being counted as a vampire thrives on blood, and the Browns will use those scorns to get up for this game. But insults aside, they have an unwavering belief that they can win.
Claypool calls the Browns ‘superclasses’
“I don’t think you would go on the pitch unless you believed in yourself,” said Garrett. “You don’t get here doubting yourself, your ability and your teammates, especially in the playoffs. Was here. We might as well be great. ”
–
Browns playoffs shirts, hats for sale: This is where Cleveland Browns fans can order shirts and caps celebrating the team’s qualification for the 2020 NFL playoffs.
More Browns coverage
Playing with the house money? It doesn’t sound like that to these browns
Garrett plans to “leave an impression” on Mahomes; ‘It’s time’ for a big game
Browns vs. Chiefs: Kansas City Star’s Blair Kerkhoff shows off Sunday’s game
Joel Bitonio activated COVID-19 on Friday; all coaches back too
WR Watkins heads out for Sunday’s game; Jack Conklin questionable
Berry: ‘We wouldn’t be here’ without Mayfield’s contributions
Mahomes ‘liked’ the tweet of ‘don’t be surprised this weekend’
It’s not just the Browns winners, I like this team! Pluto
Looking back at the 3 clashes between Mayfield and Mahomes
Mayfield vs. Mahomes: how the QBs qualified week by week this season
Browns go from laughable to lovable with the playoff victory