Why rising oil and copper prices are “completely separate from reality”, says Commerzbank

The GME GameStop,
-7.21%
the frenzy may have cooled, but attention will turn to the consequences on Thursday, when lawmakers are ready to question key players.

Several of the key players are expected to face the Chamber’s Financial Services Committee at noon after the reaction against the online trading platform Robinhood and the decisions of other brokers to temporarily restrict the trading of some of the so-called meme stocks, like the one video game retailer last month.

The liquidation of the bond market and the increase in Treasury yields also remain in focus, confirming optimism about the recovery of COVID-19, but also raising concerns that inflation may rise. The 10-year reference income in the Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.304%
jumped 38 basis points this year. Yields fell on Thursday morning, ahead of weekly US unemployment claims data later in the day.

BRN00 oil prices,
+ 0.62%
remained higher after US prices CL.1,
+ 0.59%
settled over $ 60 on Wednesday as freezing conditions kept refineries closed in Texas and production halted.

In our call of the day, Commerzbank analysts said that commodities were “completely disconnected from reality”, noting that oil prices in particular were not affected by news that would normally lower them. The recent rise in metal prices was also starting to look “excessive”, they added.

“Nothing seems to be able to contain the rise in oil prices at the moment,” said energy analyst Carsten Fritsch, noting that Brent has made gains in 14 of the past 15 trading sessions, rising about $ 10 in three weeks. A number of developments are being ignored, he said, including reports that higher prices have prompted the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to consider gradually increasing oil supplies from April, and the likelihood that Saudi Arabia will not extend its voluntary production cuts beyond the end of March.

“This selective perception is characteristic of markets in phases of excess,” added Fritsch. “Typically, oil prices should have responded to this news by dropping significantly because it is likely that up to 1.5 million additional barrels of crude will hit the market each day in April,” he said.

This distancing from reality is also present when it comes to HG00 copper,
+ 2.26%,
which reached its highest level since April 2012 on Thursday, as well as nickel and aluminum, which have also risen in several years, analysts at Commerzbank said – largely in the hope of a significant global economic recovery. Analysts noted that Chinese traders returned to the markets after a week-long holiday, raising prices.

However, precious metals and industrial analyst Daniel Briesemann said there was no new data supporting the “pronounced increase” in metal prices in recent weeks. “In our opinion, metal prices are being driven largely by speculation, and the rise is starting to look excessive. From a technical perspective, copper and aluminum are overbought again at the moment, as measured against the relative strength index, ”he said in a note.

Gold GC00,
+ 0.72%,
which fell below the key level of $ 1,800 an ounce earlier this week, amid rising bond yields and the strength of the dollar, is also disconnected from reality, but in an opposite way, Fritsch said.

The tweet

DoubleLine Capital billionaire “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach is about to turn into a BTCUSD bitcoin,
-1.46%
fan?

The markets

US stock futures YM00,
-0.36%

ES00,
-0.43%

NQ00,
-0.82%
pointed down before the opening, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
+ 0.29%
closed at a record high on Wednesday. European equities fell at the start of trading, with investors digesting mixed corporate earnings. Technology stocks drove Asian markets to fall overnight.

The buzz

Tilray TLRY,
-9.01%
reduced losses and increased revenue in the last three months of 2020, while preparing to merge with Canadian marijuana mate Aphria APHA,
-5.15%.
Tilray’s shares jumped more than 8% in pre-market trading.

Walmart WMT,
+ 1.06%
announced a new $ 20 billion stock buyback plan as the retailer’s earnings did not live up to expectations.

Google GOOG,
+ 0.30%
closed deals in Australia to pay for journalism, while Facebook FB,
-0.15%
has promised to restrict news sharing while Australian lawmakers are considering forcing digital giants into payment agreements.

Mining stocks made gains on Thursday as the copper futures rebounded, reaching the highest level since April 2012. Rio Tinto RIO,
+ 1.91%,
Antofagasta ANTO,
+ 1.14%,
and BHP BHP,
+ 1.65%
were among the biggest risers.

Apple AAPL,
-1.76%
The stock fell to its biggest low in a month on Wednesday after the tech giant’s two largest shareholders said they had cut their stakes.

Airbus AIR,
-2.43%
the shares fell more than 3%, as the aircraft manufacturer’s guidance for 2021 disappointed investors. The company said it does not expect to deliver more aircraft in 2021 than 566 delivered in 2020.

Random readings

“I was invited for a COVID-19 vaccine because the National Health Service thought I was 6 cm tall.”

A man finds a destroyed marine mine on the beach and takes it home to use as a footrest.

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