| Mississippi Clarion Ledger
OXFORD – If there is such a thing as a subtle burst, it seems that Ole Miss and South Carolina should prepare for it.
Ole Miss hosts South Carolina in a 2-4 team game this Saturday. Despite correspondence records, Ole Miss is listed as an 11.5-point favorite on Gamecocks, according to BetMGM. This line opened up favoring the Rebels by just 6.5 or 7 points in several sportsbooks, but the line has steadily increased, showing almost universal support for Ole Miss’s chances of beating South Carolina quite easily.
Logically, this is a difficult argument to make. Of course, Ole Miss has one of the most powerful and electrical offenses in the country and South Carolina is facing consecutive losses.
But the Gamecocks also beat Auburn and held Florida with fewer points than any other opponent, and Ole Miss was inconsistent in attack and consistently poor in defense.
But if you look beyond the season’s trends and look at just the past two weeks, you’ll begin to see why Ole Miss is so favorite against Gamecocks.
Here are three reasons why Ole Miss’s double-digit spread makes sense and why the rebels can only cover.
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1. Attack with the run
South Carolina’s last two games were a 52-24 loss to LSU and a 48-3 loss to Texas A&M. LSU and Texas A&M dominated offensively thanks in large part to the vigorous performances of their offensive lines that contributed to busy and busy days.
LSU ran 54 times for 276 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M ran 45 times for 264 yards and two touchdowns. The Tigers hit South Carolina steadily, sustaining six attacks that lasted eight or more moves and winning the battle for possession for 15 minutes. Texas A&M won the battle of possession time for 17 minutes and sustained four attacks that lasted eight or more moves.
The most impressive thing is that the Tigers and Aggies achieved this although they rarely went back. Despite having run 99 times, LSU and Texas A&M yielded only three tackles per defeat. In comparison, South Carolina recorded 22 tackles by losing against 126 runs in its first four games.
Offensive lineman Ole Miss Royce Newman said he thinks LSU and Texas A&M were effective in off-zone play. According to data collected by the SEC StatCat, Ole Miss performed 25 outdoor or outdoor reading games this season, winning 94 yards. The rebels are much more effective at running within the zone, however, about 18% of all Ole Miss yards this season have left the inner zone.
The rebels are first in the SEC in run yards per game. They have averaged 246 yards per game in the last four matches, averaging 51 runs per game and nine touchdowns in that period.
Few teams in the country are as committed to setting the pace as Ole Miss. If the rebels can replicate what Texas A&M and LSU did by sustaining long runs with positive running gains, there is no reason to expect that Ole Miss will not dictate the pace of the game and control the pace as she wishes.
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2. Prepare the big shots
The old axiom about running to set up the pass is not as simple or straightforward as it used to be. But when it is against South Carolina, the principle is valid.
While Texas A&M and LSU hit South Carolina with the race, they created great opportunities to pass. LSU averaged 12.6 yards per attempt against South Carolina and Texas A&M averaged 9.9 yards per attempt. To put this in perspective, Florida averaged 9.2 yards per attempt against the Gamecocks, a low of the season.
Again, this affects Ole Miss’s offensive strength. The rebels call running pass options one-third of their moves. Quarterback Matt Corral loves to play out of action and has done so with great effect throughout the season. In particular, he was successful playing over the middle and in the red zone outside the game action, leading to easy touchdowns for tight end Kenny Yeboah and big gainers for receivers running down slopes and internal sewing routes.
Whether Ole Miss gets the ball or not, expect a steady dose of action. But if the rebels succeed in running, expect the looks of play and action to turn into big gains.
3. The defense issue
When South Carolina’s attack succeeds, it is largely because of a successful rushed attack. The Gamecocks ran for 442 yards and eight touchdowns in wins over Vanderbilt and Auburn, but ran for 425 yards and five touchdowns in their four losses.
In these victories, South Carolina ran better behind the right side, averaging 7.7 yards per pass in that direction. Interestingly, this is the only place where Ole Miss’s defense has been very strong this year.
The rebels have not yet allowed more than 4.6 yards per load against middle-right races. In contrast, in the rebels’ worst performance against left-wing races, they allowed 7.7 yards per load. In their worst performance against out-left runs they allowed 16.9 yards per load, and in their worst performance against out-left runs they allowed 13.4 yards per load.
This may seem like a small detail. But for an Ole Miss defense that has given up 300 more run yards than any other SEC defense and is allowing for the fifth most played touchdown per game in the country. Any attempt by South Carolina to find the rebels’ apparent strength should be considered an advantage for victory.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or [email protected]. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.