MOSCOW (AP) – The return of opposition leader Alexei Navalny to Russia from Germany was marked by chaos and popular outrage, and ended, almost predictably, with his arrest.
The January 17 flight from Berlin, where Navalny spent nearly five months recovering from nerve agent poisoning, carried him and his wife, along with a group of journalists who documented the trip. But the plane was diverted from its intended airport in Moscow to another in the capital, in what was seen as an apparent attempt to prevent the welcome from the crowds that awaited it.
The authorities also arrested him immediately, generating outrage at home and abroad. Some Western countries have threatened sanctions and their team called for national demonstrations on Saturday.
Navalny prepared his own surprise for his return: a video exhibition claiming that a luxurious “palace” was built for President Vladimir Putin on the Black Sea through an elaborate corruption scheme. His team posted on YouTube on Tuesday and, in 48 hours, got over 42 million views.
Navalny could face years in prison for a previous conviction that he claims is politically motivated, while political commentators say there are no good options for the Kremlin.
The AP analyzes its long standoff with the authorities:
WHO IS ALEXEI NAVALNY?
Navalny, 44, is an anti-corruption activist and the Kremlin’s fiercest critic. He survived many opposition figures and was not intimidated by the relentless attempts to interrupt his work.
He released several condemning reports exposing Putin’s corruption in Russia. He has been a galvanizing figure in mass protests, including unprecedented protests in 2011-12, sparked by reports of widespread manipulation of a parliamentary election.
Navalny was twice convicted on criminal charges: fraud and subsequent fraud. He received suspended sentences of five years and three and a half years. He denounced the convictions as politically motivated and the European Court of Human Rights contested both convictions.
Navalny tried to challenge Putin in the 2018 election, but was prevented from running for one of his beliefs. However, he drew a crowd of supporters almost everywhere he went in the country.
Often in prison, he served several prison terms on charges related to major protests. In 2017, an attacker threw a green antiseptic liquid on his face, impairing his vision. He was also hospitalized in 2019 after a suspected poisoning while in prison.
None of that stopped him. In August 2020, he fell ill during a domestic flight in Siberia, and the pilot landed quickly in Omsk, where he was hospitalized. His supporters managed to get him to Berlin, where he was in a coma for more than two weeks and was diagnosed as having been poisoned by a Soviet-era nerve agent – a claim the Kremlin denied.
After recovering, Navalny released the recording of a phone call he said he made to a man who claimed to be a member of the Russian Federal Security Service, or FSB, who allegedly poisoned him. The FSB considered the recording to be false, but it still shocked many at home and abroad.
Navalny promised to return to Russia and continue his work, while authorities threatened him with arrest.
WHY WAS NAVALNY BACK?
Navalny said he did not leave Russia by choice, but “ended up in Germany in an intensive care box”. He said he never considered staying abroad.
“It doesn’t seem right to me that Alexei Navalny calls for a Berlin revolution,” he explained in an interview in October, referring to himself in the third person. “If I’m doing something, I want to share the risks with the people who work in my office.”
Analysts say it would have been impossible for Navalny to remain relevant as an opposition leader outside Russia. “Staying abroad, becoming a political emigrant, would mean the death of a public politician,” said Masha Lipman, an independent political analyst.
Nikolai Petrov, senior researcher at the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program, echoed his sentiment, saying: “Active and brilliant people who could initiate some real actions and participate in elections … while in the country, once abroad, they end up cut out of real connection with people. “
WHY IS NAVALNY FACING PRISON NOW?
His suspended sentence from the 2014 conviction resulted in a probationary period that would expire in December 2020. Authorities said Navalny was subjected to regular personal checks with police officers.
During the last days of Navalny’s probation period, Russia’s prison service placed him on a wanted list, accusing him of not showing up for these checks, even when he was convalescing in Germany. The authorities asked the court to serve the full three and a half years. Upon his return, Navalny was placed in custody for 30 days, with a hearing to review his sentence set for February 2.
Earlier this month, the Russian Investigative Committee opened another criminal investigation against him on charges of fraud, alleging that he diverted donations to his Anti-Corruption Foundation. If convicted, he faces up to 10 years in prison.
NAVALNY THREATENS KREMLIN?
Putin never calls Navalny by name, and the state media describes him as an unimportant blogger. But he managed to spread his reach beyond Moscow through his widely popular YouTube accounts, including this week’s one that featured allegations about the massive Black Sea property.
His infrastructure of regional offices installed across the country in 2017 helped him to challenge the government by mobilizing voters. In 2018, Navalny launched a project called Smart Voting, which aims to promote candidates most likely to defeat those of the dominant United Russia Kremlin party.
In 2019, the project helped opposition candidates win 20 of the 45 seats on Moscow’s city council, and last year’s regional elections saw United Russia lose its majority in legislatures in three cities.
Navalny promised to use the strategy during this year’s parliamentary elections, which will determine who will control the state Duma in 2024. That’s when Putin’s current term expires and he must seek re-election, thanks to last year’s constitutional reforms.
Analysts believe Navalny is capable of influencing this important vote, reason enough to want him to leave the scene.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Analysts say Navalny’s return was a significant blow to Putin’s image and left the Kremlin in a quandary.
Putin worked mainly at his home during the coronavirus outbreak, and the widespread perception that he has stayed away from the public is no match for Navalny’s bold return to the country where he was poisoned and could be arrested, said Chatov House’s Petrov.
“It doesn’t matter whether people support Navalny or not; they see these two images and Putin loses, ”he said.
Commentators say there is no good choice for the Kremlin: arresting Navalny for a long time will make him a martyr and could lead to mass protests, while letting him go threatens the parliamentary election.
So far, the repression has only helped Navalny, “and now, even the thinking loyalists are, if not on his side, certainly not on the side of the poisoners and persecutors,” wrote Alexander Baunov of the Moscow Carnegie Center in a recent article.
All eyes are on what will happen in the protests planned for Saturday, Petrov said. In 2013, Navalny was quickly released from prison after a five-year sentence for embezzlement after a large crowd gathered near the Kremlin.
Since then, Putin’s government has become much more rigid with dissidents, so mass protests are unlikely to lead to Navalny’s immediate release, Petrov said. But the Kremlin still fears that a severe movement could destabilize the situation, and the scale of the demonstrations could indicate how the public would react to the fact that Navalny was stuck for a long time.
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Associated Press journalist Kostya Manenkov contributed.