SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – North Korea, citing the coronavirus, became the first country in the world to give up the Tokyo Olympics.
It is true that the North is extremely sensitive to COVID-19, knowing that a widespread outbreak in a country with an already damaged health system could be a disaster.
But North Korea has also used major sporting events in the past to establish diplomacy with the United States to seek relief from much-needed sanctions in exchange for promises of nuclear disarmament. Some see the Olympics withdrawal as the North sending a message to Washington.
Here’s a look at the North Korean decision and what it might mean.
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LEGITIMATE VIRUS FEARS
A state-run website said on Tuesday that the North Korean Olympic Committee decided not to participate in the Tokyo Games scheduled to start in July “to protect players from the global public health crisis caused by COVID-19”.
North Korea has already boycotted the Olympics and other international sporting events for political reasons or did not attend when none of its athletes or teams qualified. But this is the first time that North Korea has withdrawn from a major international sporting event citing an infectious disease, according to the Seoul Unification Ministry.
Pyongyang has developed a reputation for withdrawing from negotiations with Seoul and Washington before returning at the last minute to increase its bargaining power. But given that the country is on high alert with COVID-19, experts say there is little chance of reversing its decision at the Olympics.
North Korea has shown “a coronavirus-related neurosis since declaring an emergency antivirus system in January last year,” said Park Won Gon, professor of North Korean studies at Seoul Ewha Womans University.
Park said it is highly unlikely that North Korea will secure enough vaccines for its 26 million people or report major progress in its anti-virus fight by July.
North Korean officials know how disastrous a major virus outbreak would be in a country with public health infrastructure that has been in ruins for decades. North Korea has so far taken some of the most draconian anti-virus measures in the world, including the closure of its international borders for 15 months and the departure of foreigners.
North Korea still officially claims to be free of the coronavirus, a claim that many foreign experts dispute.
North Korea’s decision to skip the Olympics shows that it “thinks contact with foreigners is the most dangerous thing right now,” said Seo Yu-Seok of the Seoul-based North Korean Studies Institute.
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A MESSAGE TO WASHINGTON
The North Korean announcement, three months before the start of the Games, could signal that Pyongyang is rejecting Seoul’s repeated impulse to use the Olympics to create a climate of dialogue. It can also show a determination to increase pressure on the new administration of US President Joe Biden.
North Korea is sending the message that it wants to deal directly with the US now, instead of using the Olympics as a place to contact Washington for talks, said Kwak Gil Sup, head of One Korea Center, a specialized website in North Korean affairs. .
Nuclear negotiations in an impasse between Pyongyang and Washington began in 2018 after a reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea’s participation in the South Pyeongchang Winter Games earlier that year.
During the Olympics, Korean athletes marched together under a single unification flag during the opening ceremony and formed Korea’s first joint team in women’s ice hockey. Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, became the first member of the North ruling family to visit South Korea since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
There has been little progress in nuclear negotiations in the past two years. North Korea recently launched two ballistic missiles into the sea in the first tests of this type in a year. Kim Yo Jong warned Washington to “not cause unease” and called the president of South Korea “a parrot raised by America”.
Experts say North Korea wants negotiations with the Biden government to obtain sanctions relief and to achieve better ties because its economy was devastated by the pandemic, U.S.-led sanctions and natural disasters last year.
Analyst Seo said North Korea was probably not sure about the benefits of participating in the Tokyo Games because Biden made it clear that he will not participate in summits made for TV with Kim Jong Un, as did his predecessor Donald Trump.
“They knew they would come home empty-handed from Tokyo,” said Seo.
But North Korea’s internal difficulties may prompt it to seek negotiations with the United States soon.
Seo said North Korea could carry out major weapons tests, such as the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, in the coming months, if it is not satisfied with the review of the Biden government policy towards North Korea, which is expected to be completed coming soon.