Iran has rejected the opportunity to discuss the future of a nuclear deal with the United States, keeping both nations on a path of confrontation rather than diplomatic.
On February 18, Washington accepted the offer to hold informal talks with Tehran, mediated by the European Union. The goal was for both sides to negotiate a way forward so that the United States could reenter the multinational pact that limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions that the Trump administration left in 2018. After that exit, Iran pressured the United States to suspend these penalties for other things, enrichment of uranium above the levels agreed in the agreement.
Now, the Trump administration has been replaced by that of Biden, who wants to resume business. But efforts to do so have come to a halt: Iran wants sanctions to be reimposed before welcoming the United States, and the United States is pushing for Tehran to comply with the agreement on its nuclear development.
Iran said it was “considering” the offer of a meeting, signaling that the EU-mediated negotiations were in a few days or weeks. But that “maybe” turned into a “no” on Sunday, a worrying indicator that the diplomatic path will not be simple.
The “time is not yet ripe for the proposed informal meeting”, Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, tweeted on Sunday.
Considering the US / E3’s positions and actions, it is not time for the proposed informal meeting.
Remember: Trump was unable to meet because of his reckless ‘Maximum Failure’. With the sanctions in place, the same still applies. Censoring is NOT diplomacy. It does not work with Iran.#CommitActMeet
– Saeed Khatibzadeh (@SKhatibzadeh) February 28, 2021
The Wall Street Journal, which first reported on Tehran’s decision, noted that Iran does not want to meet with the United States until it is clear that it would obtain sanctions relief at such a meeting. Instead, the Islamic Republic wants the EU to mediate a “step-by-step process” whereby Washington and Tehran offer concessions before any negotiations.
A White House spokesman noted that the Biden government is “disappointed by Iran’s response”, but added: “We remain ready to engage again in meaningful diplomacy to achieve a mutual return to compliance” with the nuclear deal.
Keeping the chances of diplomacy alive, however, is easier said than done.
Why Iran rejected the offer of nuclear deal talks, at least for now
It is always difficult to know why, exactly, the Iranian government does what it does. But in your tweet, Khatibzadeh offered two concrete clues.
He said the reason “is not the right time” for US-Iran negotiations was because of “US actions / E3”, which means recent moves by the US and three European signatories to the nuclear deal: UK, France and Germany.
The US side looks simple. Tehran is upset that the sanctions continue to strangle its economy, and also certainly dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s decision to attack Iran-backed representatives in eastern Syria on Thursday. This attack – in retaliation for multiple assaults by militants lining up with Tehran against U.S. targets and allies in recent weeks – targeted nine useful facilities for arms smuggling by prosecutors.
Agreeing to talks shortly after the bombs were dropped was certainly seen as unviable among top Iranian officials, experts said.
And the part of E3 probably has to do with a plan to censor Iran for its nuclear development. Simply put, Tehran has restricted the ability of the International Atomic Energy Agency – a UN watchdog – to inspect its nuclear facilities, as stipulated in the nuclear deal with Iran. To show its discontent, the US and the three European nations want to formally rebuke the Islamic Republic in the global body.
The motion to be tabled this week aims to “express the council’s growing concern about Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA,” the United States wrote in a document to other agency members. Tehran, unsurprisingly, called the pending measure “destructive” and threatened to further weaken its ties to the IAEA – perhaps by severing them altogether.
At the moment, it does not appear that the Biden government is in a panic over Iran’s refusal to meet. “We are not going to be dogmatic or advocates of form,” an unnamed senior official told the Wall Street Journal. “We want to make sure that any formal agreed process will be effective.”
The chance for diplomacy, then, is not dead, and some experts say Washington and Tehran will eventually come to an agreement. What is dead, however, is any remaining chance of an easy and peaceful path to follow.