This week the House of representatives officially handed over the impeachment article to the Senate, accusing former President Donald Trump of inciting insurrection. Juliand Norman gives an overview of what will happen next.
When will the trial begin?
The delivery of the House and the reading of the impeachment article in the Senate marked the official start of Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial. But discussions will not start until February 9. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell has requested a two-week delay for the start of the trial to ensure due process, but the interim stage is also useful for President Joe Biden, giving him time to confirm his nominees for the Cabinet. and to present important legislation before the Senate, the deal turns exclusively to the impeachment trial.
what are the accusations?
On January 13, the House of Representatives voted 232 to 197, with 10 Republicans joining the Democrats, to impeach Trump on charges of inciting insurrection. The impeachment article points to Trump’s January 6 rally that preceded the Capitol insurrection, as well as his pressure on election officials and months of baseless allegations of widespread electoral fraud. In the meantime, the Justice Department is opening an investigation to determine whether Trump and / or other officials have pressured department personnel to cast doubt on election results.
What will be the judgment looks?
As is typical in an impeachment trial, members of the House are selected as “Administrators” to present the impeachment case to the Senate, similar to an prosecution team, while Trump will have a private defense team led by attorney Butch Bowers of South Carolina, with the US Senate serving as a jury. Normally, the trial is chaired by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Federal Court, however, as this will be a trial for a former president and not for an incumbent, the trial will be chaired by the Senate pro tempore president, Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT). It is unclear how long the trial will take, but members of both parties expressed hope that it will be swift, depending in part on decisions to include witnesses and video evidence.
Will Trump be convicted?
A real conviction will require a two-thirds vote in the Senate (67), requiring at least 17 Republican senators to join Democrats to vote to condemn, which seems highly unlikely. Even Republicans who criticized Trump’s actions questioned the constitutionality of the impeachment trial (arguing that a president who is no longer in office cannot be removed), while others emphasized the need to move forward in favor of unity over responsibility. At the official start of the trial this week, no Republican senator publicly expressed an intention to condemn and, even more revealing, 45 of the 50 Republican senators voted against the trial in a procedural vote. Some Republican senators may be persuaded to condemn, but with recent polls showing almost 90% of Republican voters who oppose impeachment, Democrats are unlikely to get the numbers they need.
Is it worth it for Democrats?
Despite the uphill battle, Democrats say the process is necessary for accountability and to set a precedent to avoid similar dynamics in the future. More pragmatically, others are hopeful that a conviction, however small a chance, might prevent Trump from a future position. Even President Biden said the trial ‘has to happen’, although he left the impeachment decisions to Congress and worked with congressional leaders from both parties to try to minimize the impact of the trial on his legislative agenda. Meanwhile, the country remains divided, with 56% approving impeachment procedures, but divided into sharp party lines.
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Note: This article presents the author’s view, not the position of USAPP – American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics.
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About the author
Julie Norman – UCL
Dr. Julie Norman (@ DrJulieNorman2) is a lecturer in Politics and International Relations at UCL and a researcher at the UCL Center on US Politics (@CUSP_ucl).