Dr. Ashish Jha is raising concerns that the number of COVID-19 infections in the United States appears to have stopped decreasing after a previous downward trend.
The Dean of the Brown University School of Public Health wrote on Twitter that the country is still seeing an average of 50,000 new cases of coronavirus a day – the same number seen at the height of the increase last summer.
The doctor said he suspected that greater circulation of the most transmissible variant of the B.1.1.7 virus, first detected in the UK, is behind the halting infection trends in the country, along with many states advancing with the lifting of restrictions on coronavirus.
“This is a problem,” wrote Jha on Twitter.
Joseph Allen, associate professor and director of the Healthy Buildings program at the Harvard School of Public Health TH Chan, wrote on Twitter that the stoppage that Jha pointed out nationwide is evident in Boston wastewater data dating back weeks ago. Cambridge’s Biobot Analytics, which tests for coronavirus in the wastewater at the Deer Island treatment plant, found the amount of virus detected correlates with new cases diagnosed four to 10 days later.
Do you know where you can see ‘the tent’ that @ashishkjha is talking? State level data. Do you know where you can see this early? Waste water data.
Here is Boston. The residual water told us that the outage had been going on for a few weeks https://t.co/VOjm96eI0K pic.twitter.com/6LuPKl4zyY
– Joseph Allen (@j_g_allen) March 18, 2021
When it comes to tracking the outbreak, another problem that Jha identified is that national data ignores underlying trends in states.
The doctor emphasized that, as of a month ago, all states were seeing rates of decline, but as of Wednesday, 15 states had reported more cases than they had seen two weeks earlier and 19 had seen higher positive test rates.
“Even hospitalizations are increasing in some places,” he wrote. “It is not a surprise. B.1.1.7 probably represents about 40% of infections in the USA today. It means that about 20,000 infections identified today were likely to be B.1.1.7. It will become the dominant variant in [the] in the next weeks. “
Jha said the concern is that, as the most contagious variant spreads and becomes dominant, peaks in cases, hospitalizations and deaths will increase, which occurred in Europe.
The two ways to prevent the same situation from happening in the United States is to “continue to vaccinate and fast” and leave the COVID-19 restrictions in place for “a few more weeks”.
“We are doing the first, not the second,” said Jha. “All high-risk people should be vaccinated in mid-April. This is so close. Every infection that kills someone today is a person who would be vaccinated in the [next] few weeks. So we have to keep public health restrictions in place for a little while longer. “
He urged employees not to relax the rules for using internal masks, to allow them to return to full restaurants and bars, or to reduce testing.
Massachusetts is about to move to the first stage of its final reopening phase on Monday, allowing large locations – including Fenway Park, Gillette Stadium and TD Garden – to reopen with a 12 percent capacity limit.
“We are still at a high level of infection,” said Jha. “We stopped declining. I’m sure we will see an increase in cases? No, but worried. We will finish vaccinating high-risk people. Then, intelligently relax public health measures. This will allow us to enjoy what must be a great summer. “
Last week, the number of infections in the U.S. stopped decreasing
About 50,000 infections every day
About where we were at the height of the summer wave
Why the tent?
Suspect B.1.1.7 is now starting to really take effect
And states are opening up
This is a problem
Wire
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) March 18, 2021
It is not a surprise
B.1.1.7 – probably represents about 40% of infections in the USA today
It means that about 20,000 infections identified today were likely to be B.1.1.7
It will become the dominant variant in the coming weeks
So what’s the problem? Look at europe
3/6
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) March 18, 2021
Every high-risk person should be able to receive a vaccine in mid-April
This is so close
Every infection that kills someone today is a person who would be vaccinated in a few weeks
So we have to maintain public health restrictions for a little while longer
5/7
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) March 18, 2021
Result?
We still have a high level of infection
We stopped declining
I’m sure we will see an increase in cases? No but worried
Let’s finish vaccinating high-risk people
Then, intelligently relax public health measures
This will allow us to enjoy what must be a great summer
Fin
– Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) March 18, 2021
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