What about the cases that arose before the outbreak in the seafood market?
There was another spread going on outside the Huanan market. There are other patients who have no connection with the market, many in December. There were other markets. And we know that some of the patients had connections with other markets. We need to work harder and then Chinese colleagues need to do some more work.
When we sat down as a group, the China team and the WHO team on the last full day of work, and said, “Let’s look at the hypotheses,” the one that received the most enthusiastic support was this path – wildlife, through a link of domesticated wildlife in Wuhan.
What is the next step?
For the animal chain, it’s straightforward. Suppliers are known. They know the name of the farm; they know the owner of the farm. You have to go to the farm and interview the farmer and his family. You have to test them. You have to test the community. You have to go and see if there are any animals left on a nearby farm and see if they have evidence of infection, and see if there is any movement across the border. If the virus is in those southern border states, it is possible that there has been some movement in neighboring countries like Vietnam, Laos or Myanmar. We are discovering more and more related viruses now. There is one in Japan and one in Cambodia, one in Thailand.
For the human side, look for previous cases, for clusters; look for serum in the blood banks, if possible. Anything like that will be delicate in China and will require some persuasion, diplomacy and energy to do this because, to be honest, looking for the source of this virus in China is not a high priority. think for the Chinese government. Wherever this virus appears it is a political issue. This is one of the problems, and it is clear and obvious to anyone who has seen it.
Do you have a specific animal that you now suspect as an intermediate link, more strongly than others?
It is very much in the air. We don’t know if civets were for sale. We know that they are easily infected. We do not know what the situation is for mink farms in China or other fur farms, such as raccoon dogs, although they are usually raised in a different part of China. This also needs to be followed.
But if you said which way you would put the most weight, I think the virus emerged in Southeast Asia or southern China from bats, entering a domesticated wildlife farm. I’ve been to many of them, and they usually have mixed species – civets, ferret badgers, raccoon dogs. These animals could be infected by bats.