When the Los Angeles Lakers hired Talen Horton-Tucker with choice # 46 in the 2019 NBA Draft, they had the option of signing him with a standard four-year rookie contract, which would have allowed them to sign Horton- Tucker using all of his Bird rights in the fourth year of his contract, or when his business has expired.
However, as the Lakers were in win-now mode, they used the precious space they had in 2019 to hire veteran players; most notably DeMarcus Cousins and Quinn Cook, who signed for more than the minimum for veterans. As a result, they were only able to offer Horton-Tucker a two-year contract below the limit.
Knowing what they know now – about Cousins and Horton-Tucker – it’s safe to assume that the Lakers would return and give Horton-Tucker that third year if they could, but unfortunately they can’t. Instead, the Lakers will try to negotiate a new contract with Horton-Tucker this summer, when the 20-year-old is expected to take action restricted to the free agency.
There will almost certainly be a market for Horton-Tucker, who is in the middle of an escape season with the Lakers. Insiders are already saying it can be heavy. However, Horton-Tucker’s chances of leaving Los Angeles are minimal
The Lakers will have Horton-Tucker’s advance rights, meaning that they can offer him up to 175% of his previous salary or 105% of the previous season’s average salary, the latter of which is higher in Horton-Tucker cases. It is also greater than the mid-level non-contributory exception, which is the maximum that another team can offer Horton-Tucker in its first year because of the “Gilbert Arenas Provision” that was added to the NBA CBA in 2005.
Eric Pincus explained a lot of this in his excellent video below:
In the second year of Horton-Tucker’s new theoretical contract, the Lakers can offer him a standard 5% increase. Therefore, according to current salary cap projections, Horton-Tucker would earn about $ 20 million in the first two years of his contract. Even though Horton-Tucker production has stalled after this season, it is still a decent value.
The third year of the Horton-Tucker contract is where things can get complicated for Los Angeles. In the third year, any space-limited team can offer Horton-Tucker the maximum salary for a player with his experience, which is 25% of the salary limit. The same is true for the fourth year, with only an increase of 4.5%.
This means that Horton-Tucker could sign an offer worth approximately $ 82 million over a four-year period. As unlikely as this may be, it is still a possibility worth considering.
Where the Lakers still have an advantage is how that salary counts in their books compared to other teams. If Horton-Tucker signed this offer sheet with another team, the average annual salary for that contract – about $ 20 million – would count against that team’s limit on the duration of the contract. So, not only would the team have to have $ 20 million in capitalization space this summer, but it would also have to agree to $ 20 million in its books for the next three summers.
In comparison, the Lakers would have the option of reaching a maximum limit of $ 20 million over four years or could have the contract accounted for in the way it was written, the last of which would be more likely due to the amount of salary they have already committed through the 2022-23 season. They also have the luxury of matching any Horton-Tucker signpost.
Will Horton-Tucker receive a partial maximum bid spreadsheet? Probably not, but that is not the point. The point is that the Lakers are, by design, in a better position to retain Horton-Tucker than another team is to sign him, so if he is in a different uniform next season, it won’t be because they weren’t able to make a competitive offer.
Assuming both sides are interested in a reunion, expect a deal to be struck quickly this summer, when the free agency kicks in.
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