During a typical female college basketball season, the arrival of a new year marks the unofficial start of the league game. By now, teams would normally have played 12-15 non-conference games to lay the foundation for an NCAA tournament curriculum.
This is not the case in 2020-21. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and so many games being canceled or postponed, some teams played only two or three games outside their conference. Many of the things that usually start to fall into place at this time of the season remain unknown.
This does not mean that nothing has been examined. Not everything is still at stake. This includes the teams competing for the first place in the ranking.
The list of teams still in contention for the top four is a little longer than usual in January, but November and December did their job, leaving just enough candidates to make the next few weeks crucial. Here’s a look, listed in their current order on the S curve, the teams that still have a chance to be on the top row in the national team on Monday, March 15th.
Stanford: Cardinal is the current No. 1 overall team in Bracketology and probably has the deepest talent pool in the country. Stanford has also beaten two of his main opponents in Pac-12 (Arizona and UCLA) on the road by double digits.
The “on the road” part of that sentence could be the only question mark for the cardinal. Due to COVID-19’s restrictions on contact sports in Santa Clara County, Stanford played only one home game. Since opening the season on November 25 at the Maples Pavilion, Cardinal has played in Las Vegas, Berkeley, Stockton, Los Angeles, Tucson and Tempe. There is a chance that they will not play another game at home this season, and that kind of burden can end up affecting any team, regardless of depth or skill.
South Carolina: If the schedule is maintained, Gamecocks will face six NCAA tournament-quality opponents in the next 25 days, thanks to the current depth of the SEC. That doesn’t even include next month’s trip to UConn (February 8) or South Carolina’s only meeting with Texas A&M (February 28).
This is a difficult path for a No. 1 seed, but it also gives South Carolina more comfort than perhaps any other on this list. If they stumble, Gamecocks will probably have to wait just a few days before the next opportunity for a quality win comes. The season is truncated, but a basic concept remains the same: the more good earnings in the curriculum, the better the seed.
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Kentucky’s Rhyne Howard picks up an offensive board and manages to take the next shot to make a further foul, leading the Wildcats to a 92-86 victory over Mississippi.
UConn: Given the ease with which the Huskies eliminated Villanova and DePaul, it is difficult to imagine anyone in the Grand Orient launching a major challenge.
That means Thursday’s game against Baylor (ESPN, 8:30 pm Eastern time) and next month’s meeting with South Carolina are likely to decide UConn’s fate as the seed. If they win both games, the Huskies will certainly remain on the front row until Monday of the National Team. If you win one of those games, UConn is probably still in a good position. If the Huskies lose both, they will need some setbacks to happen elsewhere to be seed number one again.
NC State: In a season in which eyesight testing may play a bigger role than usual, Wolfpack may have a hard time impressing committee members enough to win a major seed. Yes, NC State is undefeated (10-0) and is currently No. 1 seed in Bracketology, but Wolfpack’s game hasn’t always been aesthetically pleasing this season. The 3-point shot has been inconsistent (they hit 9 out of 29 against their toughest opponents, South Carolina and Georgia Tech) and had occasional turnover problems (20 in Sunday’s win over Boston College).
Of course, it may not matter if Wolfpack’s prank through ACC includes a victory over Louisville on January 17th.
Louisville: This game against NC State may look even bigger for the Cardinals. With the COVID-19 protocols wreaking havoc on his schedule, Louisville has not played a significant game since he faced Duke on December 9. With Blue Devils canceling their season, it is difficult to assess how important this victory is.
We know that Cardinals are good, but at some point they need to build a curriculum to challenge the teams in front of them for a No. 1 seed.
Baylor: When it comes to metrics and quantitative data used in seeding selection and assessment, Lady Bears would really benefit from a Big 12. The league is moving forward. Texas is even better than expected in the first season of Vic Schaefer, and the state of Oklahoma was a small surprise.
Baylor’s loss to Arkansas at the beginning of last month took the Lady Bears off the top line, and their conference schedule, despite the improvements mentioned, may not yet offer enough potential quality wins to get back there without help and / or a decisive victory over UConn on Thursday.
Texas A&M: In an almost unsure season, it is worth simply knowing how to play. Aggies’ 10 wins are the most in the country (tied with NC State and Arkansas). That 10-0 record, combined with having one of the best and offensively efficient shooting teams in the country, puts the Aggies in the discussion for seed number one.
How do they stay there? Texas A&M may need to remain undefeated until the end of the regular season against South Carolina, and a minimum SEC second place may be required. Texas A&M has already done very well by rising to second position in this week’s Bracketology projection and putting itself in the running for a top seed.
Kentucky: The Wildcats continued the race with Sunday’s thrilling overtime victory in the state of Mississippi – and at the same time it likely ended the Bulldogs’ lead aspirations. Thursday’s game against Texas A&M (SEC Network, 8:30 pm Eastern time) can also be considered an elimination game for the pair of possible seedings.
No team in the country should face the eight-day period in which Kentucky is currently competing. Bulldogs and Aggies are followed by South Carolina on Sunday (ESPN2, noon ET). If the Wildcats score 3-0, they will skip a few teams and be on the verge of a No. 1 seed.
Arizona and Oregon: They are not yet out of the running, but we are putting Wildcats and Ducks together because they are both considered unlikely. Arizona struggled with the USC and Colorado and did not compete against Stanford, while Oregon lost at home to UCLA on Sunday. This brought Arizona and Oregon down to third place this week.
The Ducks still have two games against Stanford, and Arizona plays the Ducks twice and has a rematch at the end of February with Stanford. As long as there are no more slips in the league game, these games give everyone a chance at a seed, but the quality in the upper half of the Pac-12 is more likely to produce another defeat or two, which would eliminate the possibility of a No. 1 seed.