The Senate is toward his second impeachment trial for Donald Trump, which is scheduled to begin on February 8 and will provide a vivid reminder of the violent acquisition of the Capitol that resulted in five deaths. But Republicans – some of whom initially showed a willingness to push for consequences for Trump – quickly closed the ranks around a new message: let it go.
“I just think we need to move on,” said Sen. Marco Rubio, of Florida, before going on to talk about the new dangerous mutations in COVID-19. “And I hope that we do that and that history holds those responsible responsible.”
And that may be exactly what happens, as neither Rubio nor members of his party seem willing to hold Trump accountable, underscoring the former president’s continued dominance over the party, even after losing his job and his social media megaphone.
The House quickly accused Trump of his role in inciting a violent crowd that temporarily interrupted the counting of electoral votes on January 6. Republicans and Democrats condemned the attack, which included supporters building a gallows and shouting “Hang Mike Pence!” while they invaded the building.
But now that Trump is out of office, some jurists have suggested that an impeachment trial may be unconstitutional – an argument that many Republicans have quickly adopted while seeking a way out of the politically unpleasant prospect of condemning a figure who remains popular among the grassroots. If Trump were convicted, the Senate could prevent him from running for president again.
Some Republican senators this week suggested that losing the election is punishment enough for Trump; others pointed out that the impeachment of a former president would set a bad precedent that could trigger a cascade of political retaliation for electoral losers. On Tuesday, all but five Republicans supported a motion declaring the trial unconstitutional, predicting how few could even consider a vote to condemn Trump.
Among those who voted for the unsuccessful motion were minority leader Mitch McConnell, who had not spoken to Trump for weeks and previously signaled an opening for sentencing, and Senator Lindsey Graham, who hours after the mutiny declared about Trump that “enough”, but since then she has approached him.
“We are going to need Trump and Trump needs us,” Graham said this week.
The collective neglect to hold Trump accountable is a measure of his continued appeal to the Republican base, even when federal authorities are arresting dozens of supporters for his actions on January 6 and the Department of Homeland Security has issued an alert warning of possible terrorist attacks by right-wing militants. Some of the ten House Republicans who voted with Democrats for Trump’s impeachment admitted stoically that they may well lose their seats with the move.
“The silent hope is that he will just walk away without having to publicly reprimand him and irritate the base,” said Ryan Williams, a Republican strategist and former spokesman for Senator Mitt Romney when he ran for president. “Even at this stage, voting to condemn the president almost guarantees you a primary that can end your Senate career.”
This was evident on Thursday, when hundreds of Trump supporters attended a rally in Cheyenne, Wyoming, hosted by Representative Matt Gaetz, Trump’s ardent ally, to protest against Liz Cheney’s vote for the impeachment of the former president . And Congressman Kevin McCarthy, the minority leader in the House who said during the House impeachment debate that Trump “has responsibility” for the January 6 attack, traveled to Palm Beach, Florida, to give him an audience this week.
After the McCarthy meeting, Trump’s political organization boasted in a statement: “Your endorsement means perhaps more than any endorsement at any time.”
A conviction would require 17 Republicans to join all 50 Democrats in the Senate. Senators Romney, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Pat Toomey and Ben Sasse are the only Republicans who have not joined their 45 colleagues in support of the motion that considers the trial unconstitutional.
With votes to condemn on the Republican side clearly absent, some Democrats are pushing for a quick one-week trial, compared with the three weeks that passed Trump’s first impeachment trial in early 2020. The short term means that lawmakers would have no time to gather evidence using the power of subpoena to find out what Trump knew before the rally about the crowd’s intentions.
Instead, they would likely rely on the mountain of publicly available videos and other evidence that shows protesters quoting Trump’s words to justify his violent violation of the Capitol. This is good for many Democrats who want to change the political issues on their agenda.
“I hope we can deal with this as soon as possible to start meeting the needs of working families,” Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who met with Democrats, said of the trial.
Others, however, are emphasizing the gravity of the situation, insisting that if the Senate does not condemn, then there must be a criminal case against Trump.
“This is much, much more serious than anything we’ve ever seen in our lives and it’s really the purpose of having impeachment articles in the constitution,” said Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia. “We want to make sure that no one ever does this again, never thinks about doing it again – sedition and insurrection.”
President Biden stayed out of the debate, saying he would let senators decide what to do about the trial.
If Republicans remain united and vote for Trump’s acquittal, it could leave a major political issue unresolved at a time when the country is struggling to overcome the former president’s lies about electoral fraud and attempts to stay in power after he lost.
“What will happen is that Trump will say, ‘I am a victim of party revenge on impeachment’ and he will be able to monopolize the headlines and then in the end he will be acquitted,” predicted Bruce Ackerman, a constitutional academic at Yale Law School. “Then he will run and say, ‘I am not guilty! I was right all along. ‘”
Ackerman urged lawmakers to come together around a bipartisan compromise that avoids this scenario – a censorship vote based on a 14th Amendment provision that prohibits people from holding office if they participate in a rebellion or insurrection against the United States. In this scenario, the Supreme Court would ultimately hear the evidence for and against the prosecution and make a decision, removing that judgment from the political arena of Congress.
Collins and Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, tried to garner support for this route this week, but it doesn’t seem to have gained much strength.
“I heard some rumors, but not a serious discussion,” said Sen. John Thune, of South Dakota, a Republican.
No matter what the outcome, the impeachment trial will be a reminder – and a revival – of January 6, which could hinder the efforts of some lawmakers who hope voters will forget what happened.
“They can turn a blind eye to it all day, but it doesn’t change the local facts,” said Michael Steele, former chairman of the Republican National Committee that supported Biden in 2020. “The damage and carnage that was created by his incitement to insurrection – you cannot escape it. “
Liz Goodwin can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on twitter @lizcgoodwin.