The best-known living Buddhist figure in the world said that when he turned 90, he would decide whether to reincarnate – potentially ending a role that has been central to Tibetan Buddhism for more than 600 years, but in recent decades has become a political lightning rod in China.
Although the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, is still in good health, he is now 85 years old and questions about his succession are growing, along with fears that his death could trigger a religious crisis in Asia.
After an unsuccessful revolt against the Chinese occupation of Tibet in 1959, the Dalai Lama fled to India, where he established a government in exile in Dharamsala, leading thousands of Tibetans who followed him there. Although the Dalai Lama originally expected his exile to be only temporary, Beijing’s control over Tibet only tightened, making an unlikely return soon.
Today, Beijing sees him as a separatist with the aim of separating Tibet from China and, therefore, wants the next reincarnation of his role to align with his own political goals.
Since 1974, the Dalai Lama has said that he does not seek independence from China for Tibet, but “significant autonomy” that would allow Tibet to preserve its culture and heritage.
Experts, however, said that regardless of what he chooses, the Chinese government will almost certainly move to choose a new Dalai Lama in Tibet – one who is expected to support control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the region.
This could lead to the choice of two separate Dalai Lamas – one in China and one in India.
Tenzin Tseten, a researcher at the Tibetan Political Institute, based in Dharamsala, said the Dalai Lama was of great importance to the Tibetan people and a symbol of their “nationalism and identity”. “The Tibetan people will never accept a Dalai Lama nominated by the CCP,” said Tenzin.
History of the Dalai Lama
The Dalai Lama has reincarnated 13 times since 1391, when the first of his incarnates was born, and usually a secular method is used to find the new leader.
The search begins when the previous Dalai Lama dies. Sometimes it is based on signs that the previous incarnation gave before dying, other times the main lamas – a monk or priest of varying age who teaches Buddhism – will go to a sacred lake in Tibet, Lhamo Lhatso, and meditate until they have a vision of where to look for your successor.
Then they send search groups across Tibet, looking for children who are “special” and born a year after the Dalai Lama’s death, according to Ruth Gamble, a Tibetan religion expert at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia.
“There is a great responsibility for these people to get it right,” she said.
Once they find several candidates, the children are tested to determine whether they are the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. Some of the methods include showing children items that belong to the previous incarnation.
As a child, he recognized a senior lama who had disguised himself to observe local children and successfully identified several items belonging to the 13th Dalai Lama.
In his autobiography, “My Land and My People”, the Dalai Lama wrote that he was given sets of identical or similar items – including rosaries, canes and drums – one of which belonged to the previous incarnation and the other which was common. In all cases, he chose the correct one.
But the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation was not always found in Tibet. The fourth Dalai Lama was found in Mongolia, while the sixth Dalai Lama was discovered in what is now Arunachal Pradesh, India.
“The most important thing is that the centuries-old Tibetan reincarnation system is based on people’s faith in the Renaissance,” said Tenzin, of the Tibet Institute of Politics.
What the Tibetan government in exile can do
At the moment, there are no official instructions establishing how the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation will take place if he dies before returning to Tibet.
But in that significant 2011 statement, the 14th Dalai Lama said that “the person who reincarnates has exclusive legitimate authority over where and how he is reborn and how that reincarnation should be recognized”.
The Dalai Lama said that his reincarnation should be carried out “according to past tradition”. “I will leave clear written instructions on this,” he said in 2011. CNN contacted the Gaden Phodrang Trust to see if further instructions were issued, but did not receive a response.
One thing that has become increasingly clear is that reincarnation is unlikely to happen in Tibet, an area that the Gaden Phodrang Trust cannot even access – especially after the disputed reincarnation of the Panchen Lama in the 1990s.
Gamble, from La Trobe University, said that during the selection process, the Tibetan government in exile was secretly in contact with people in Tibet, which allowed it to find reincarnation in a traditional way.
What Tibetans in exile have learned from this experience, said Gamble, is “if you recognize someone within the PRC and are really high-level, you won’t be able to get them out.”
What the Chinese government will do
The Chinese government has publicly telegraphed its intentions for the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama – it will take place in Tibet and will be in line with Beijing’s wishes.
The document said that the reincarnations of Tibetan religious figures must be approved by Chinese government officials, and those with “particularly large impact” must be approved by the State Council, China’s main civilian administration currently led by Prime Minister Li Keqiang. .
“(Beijing) takes control over the searches, tests, recognition, education and training of religious figures,” said Tseten, of the Tibet Policy Institute.
There are few details about the reincarnation process in the Chinese government document, except to recognize the so-called “golden urn” process, which was introduced in Tibet by the Qing Dynasty in the 1790s and sees the names of possible child candidates placed in a small golden urn and selected at random.
“Keep in mind that, in addition to the reincarnation recognized by such legitimate methods, no recognition or acceptance should be given to a candidate chosen for political purposes by anyone, including those from the People’s Republic of China,” said the Dalai Lama in his statement in 2011 .
An authorized circle
But experts said the CCP has used a much more insidious method to prepare for the choice of the next Dalai Lama. In recent years, Beijing has selected and prepared a group of senior lamas who are friends with Beijing, according to experts.
When the time comes to choose the Dalai Lama’s successor, they can make it appear that the Dalai Lama was chosen by Tibetan Buddhist religious leaders rather than CCP officials.
Gamble, from La Trobe University, said the reincarnation process was based on the constant building of religious authority over generations, when one lama recognized the reincarnation of another, and then that lama in turn recognized his patron when they returned as a kid.
“Their authority lends authority to the next Dalai Lama and then this Dalai Lama returns authority when he meets them when they are children and that is what the Chinese government is trying to get involved in, to destabilize this circle of authority,” she said. .
Tenzin, of the Tibet Policy Institute, said that Beijing has slowly raised the profile of the chosen Panchen Lama, who recently appeared at CCP meetings and made an international visit to Thailand in 2019, to try to build his authority when selecting the 15th Dalai Lama . The Panchan Lama is part of the group of senior lamas who will make the selection – another example of this group being prepared and selected by Beijing.
But neither Gamble nor Tenzin, of the Tibetan Political Institute, believed that having two Dalai Lamas would have a major impact on Tenzin Gyatso’s legacy. “People still keep the pictures of the 10th Panchen Lama as a way of getting around (their reincarnation). They send their teachings and read their books,” said Gamble. “I don’t think the Dalai Lama’s death will end devotion to him the way the CCP thinks it will.”
Both experts said they believed that although protests against the CCP’s chosen Dalai Lama were difficult to carry out in Tibet, with Beijing maintaining tight control over the Himalayan region, it would have very little influence on Tibetans compared to its predecessor.
Tenzin said the CCP’s treatment of the new Panchen Lama, the second most important figure in Tibetan Buddhism, gives an indication of the pressure the party could apply to any future Dalai Lama – whether Beijing chooses it or not.
“He can’t even live in his own monastery,” said Tenzin.