As Christmas celebrations end and New Year’s Eve preparations begin, new restrictions have come into effect in Massachusetts to contain a further increase in holiday-related COVID-19 cases.
According to Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, there are serious concerns that this will happen again after the ‘holiday season.
“I am very, very concerned that in the coming weeks, we will see a big increase on top of an increase in new infections,” he told NBC10 Boston.
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But when would evidence of this increase likely appear? Thanksgiving Day, which inspired the new restrictions, can offer meaning.
“There is no doubt that the informal meetings that took place … around Thanksgiving Day had a big impact on our test rates and a big impact on our hospitalizations,” Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker said in an interview. press conference a week before Christmas. “Thanksgiving Day got in the way.”
An increase in cases followed the Massachusetts holiday – despite a reported drop in the number of trips around Thanksgiving Day compared to a normal year. Just not immediately.
In the first few days after Thursday, November 26, the case count remained relatively stable. On November 27, the day after Thanksgiving, Massachusetts had an average of 2,400 new confirmed cases of coronavirus a day, according to data from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.
Medical experts across the country and here in Massachusetts are increasingly concerned that we may soon see a post-Thanksgiving increase in the number of COVID cases, creating an increase within an increase.
The increase occurred during the following week, as the daily average of cases increased dramatically. As of Monday, November 30, newly notified cases have increased by 10% or more for four consecutive days, culminating in a 20% jump from December 2nd to December 3rd. it had reached 4,300, almost double the number reported the day after Thanksgiving.
The average positivity rate of the COVID-19 test in the state, however, started to rise even earlier. After staying at the 3% to 3.3% level for two weeks before Thanksgiving, the number had already started to rise on November 24th. But, ten days later, on December 4, the average rate reached 6% for the first time since June 1.
Urging Bay Staters to skip the holiday celebrations, Baker said earlier this month that “we really can’t afford to be the kind of big event that was Thanksgiving in Massachusetts.”
And the governor invoked the post-Thanksgiving increase by announcing the new set of rules on Tuesday.
He said that seven days after Thanksgiving, “we saw a big increase in positive cases”. Hospital intensive care beds went from 67% occupied at the time of the holiday to a peak of 83% occupied on December 15, about three weeks after Thanksgiving.
Governor Charlie Baker announces new restrictions for Massachusetts residents to prevent another coronavirus outbreak, including reducing the capacity of most industries to 25% and reducing internal meetings to a maximum of 10 people.
The new rules, which began on Saturday and are expected to last at least two weeks, have reduced occupancy to 25% of capacity for a wide range of businesses, including restaurants, places of worship, fitness centers and retail.
Indoor meetings and events are limited to just 10 people, while outdoor meetings and events cannot have more than 25 people. Workers and employees are not included in event occupancy counts, but the limits apply to private residences, as well as event venues and public spaces.
Baker waited for this round of restrictions to begin until after Christmas to allow religious celebrations to continue, including many Christians to physically attend traditional mass. He hoped people would continue to celebrate safely, he said.
If the post-Christmas increase is similar to that of Thanksgiving, a sharp increase in cases may begin on Monday or Tuesday.
Governor Charlie Baker hinted that more restrictions may be coming to minimize the impact of another significant increase, as he made an appeal during Christmas week to residents, begging them to stay home during the holiday.
But the New Year is also part of the equation, as the new restrictions are also aimed at that holiday and the week between it and Christmas, when many schools are out of classes and families traditionally visit, said Baker.
Jha said he expects the increase to be evident from January 4 or 5, a few days after the end of the festive week. He said it could take five to seven days for the peaks to become evident.
“It takes a while – for people to be infected, develop symptoms, get tested and data are reported,” said Jha.
It is possible that no new wave will reach Massachusetts, but the trips suggest that people have been visiting family and friends over the holidays, despite experts and officials warning against it.
Although the airports seemed more empty than usual on vacation, many people continued to travel despite warnings.
The queues were spotted early Monday morning at the ticket counters at Boston Logan International Airport, which saw traffic drop dramatically during the pandemic, and the United States Transportation Security Administration reported that 1.3 million people passed through their checkpoints on Sunday, the maximum in a single day since March.
“What it tells me is that a lot of people are getting tired of staying at home and I understand that,” said Jha, adding: “The problem is that we are in the middle of the worst phase of the pandemic. “