President Biden may have raised hopes prematurely by saying that he hoped that, in the spring, any American who wanted a vaccine with COVID-19 could get it.
Even so, he did not identify which month, leaving open the possibility that “spring” means the height of summer, in mid-June. However, the White House quickly suppressed that expectation.
“Everyone will not be – will not be eligible this spring, as everyone knows, even if the CDC continues to provide updated guidance,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Tuesday. “But [Mr. Biden] we would certainly give in to health experts and doctors and, obviously, Dr. Fauci’s guidance on when we can be on the pace of achieving collective immunity. ”
The White House clarified that 100 million vaccines in the first 100 days of Biden’s presidency are still the official target, as originally planned, after Biden expressed hope that 150 million injections of COVID could occur in his first 100 days. And the goal of 100 million in 100 days is one of the country’s leading infectious disease specialists, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who seems to agree that it is realistic. “As soon as you start work and get momentum, I think we can reach 1 million a day or even more,” he told the Associated Press earlier this month.
At a rate of 1 million injections per day, it would take the rest of 2021 to vaccinate about 70% of American adults. This could be in the range of herd immunity, the point at which the disease transmission rate decreases, although scientists are still unsure of what percentage of the population must be inoculated to achieve herd immunity against COVID-19.
The White House also did not say when younger Americans without pre-existing health problems and who are not essential workers can expect to receive their vaccines.
The government has been taking steps to increase vaccine production, announcing on Tuesday that is planning to buy an additional 200 million Doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which she hopes will be available in the summer, although the goal of 100 million doses in 100 days does not depend on the approval of new vaccines.
Public health experts and medical supply chains say several factors will be decisive in accelerating the distribution of the vaccine to the general population – in essence, adults under 65 years of age who have no underlying health problems and are not essential workers.
“Everyone needs to recognize that increasing to 400 million doses of a vaccine that we didn’t have a year ago is going to take some time,” said Dr. Julie Swann, head of the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University . “I don’t expect the general public to have access in late spring, unless we have several random things that happen between now and then.”
The main components involved in meeting the vaccination target are supply, distribution and administration, says Prashant Yadav, senior researcher at the Center for Global Development and Affiliate Professor of Technology and Operations Management at INSEAD. And they are “equally important and not given,” he said.
Yadav thinks that vaccine production would need to be almost “perfect” to keep up with demand, but still believes that vaccines may be available to the general public in May or early June. But March or April, he said, is “highly unviable”.
Dr. Bruce Y. Lee, a professor at the Graduate School of Public Health and Public Policy at CUNY and executive director of Public Health Informatics, Computing and Operations Research, told CBS News that he is concerned about “multiple bottlenecks” vaccine launch. Distribution and administration has been Slower than expected.
Identifying where bottlenecks are in the supply chain and will reveal whether a spring schedule is “achievable or aspirational,” he said.
“It’s not just the number of vaccines that matters,” said Lee. “It’s really important who gets them,” said Lee.
Residents could be vaccinated at a faster rate if states ignored the prioritization guidelines, but that would be counterproductive to the goal of protecting the most vulnerable, Lee said. There have been anecdotes about cutting lines by rich americans, and in other cases, people who are not on the highest priority lists are receiving injections because of the pressure not to waste highly perishable doses.
“Since the reconstituted Pfizer vaccine should be used within a few hours or discarded, multiple doses were administered to health professionals outside the front line so that the valuable vaccine was not thrown away,” said Redlands Community Hospital spokesman Nikyah Thomas-Pfeiffer, in a statement.
And keeping up with a million injections a day can become more difficult, Lee and others said, noting that vaccination started with “fruits within reach” in places like hospitals and long-term care centers. When eligibility to receive the vaccine becomes broader, some populations may be more difficult to reach, depending on where they live and what their socioeconomic circumstances are. More effort will be needed to reach US residents who do not speak English or have regular access to healthcare, Lee noted.
State governments are beginning to feel pressure to vaccinate the least vulnerable populations, said Lee, in particular, of large employers who want to vaccinate their employees so that they can return to work safely.
The Biden administration must conduct its own review of where the bottlenecks in the distribution of the vaccine are, Lee said. The company is starting to tackle this, announcing new vaccine allocation schedules this week, which will give states more advance information on their vaccine shipments, allowing them to better plan their distribution.
The federal government can also vaccinate more people more quickly by establishing or supporting vaccination sites, said Yadav, which the Biden government claims to be developing.
Swann said administering vaccines would be more efficient if each state had a website where people could apply to get their vaccines, instead of going to local health departments. But there are currently only a handful of states with a centralized vaccination registration or waiting list system, according to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal.
New Jersey has a statewide registration system. In California and New Jersey, residents can pre-register to be notified when it is their turn, but this does not necessarily put them in line to receive the vaccine. South Dakota does not have a waiting list across the state, but it does direct residents to local health care providers, where they can find a waiting list.
“Eventually, I think we will have enough vaccine for all Americans who want one, and for additional backup if needed,” said Swann. “New processes take time, but the offer will increase.”
Alexander Tin contributed to this report.