The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) ETF had been dropping since the beginning of August and the market ignored it – until this week.
This week, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reached an incredible 1.60%, with a jump of around 50 basis points this month. The stock market faltered and traders started selling technology names left and right.
Let’s check out some charts.
In this weekly TLT Point and Figure chart, below, we use closing price data and the chart shows a double bottom split pattern with a potential downward price target of $ 115.
On this graph of points and long-term figures on the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, we can see a target of up 2.38%, but a 2.00% trade will reach the bottom side of a trend line. long-term low.
The yield trend has fallen on this chart since 2000, but it has actually fallen since 1981. Thank you, Mr. Volcker.
A word about fees
Let’s talk about the fee scenario.
House prices have risen in many parts of the United States, and many market watchers have linked the rise in asset prices and the price of crude oil to the flood of stimulus funds around the world.
Why would an increase in interest rates be such an “instant” shock to the markets?
Results strategy
An appreciation of the US dollar in the coming weeks could hurt the current commodity boom. The Fed may be nervous and do something to raise bond prices. Who knows?
Meanwhile, TLT is in a bearish trend and I still don’t see any minimum price action. A jump can happen at any time, but it may not be enough to reverse the current trend.
The 10-year Treasury is likely to move sideways around 1.50% for a while, but could reach 2% later this year or perhaps next year.
There are a lot of moving parts, so try not to get too involved in the hustle and bustle of everyday life.
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