What’s new in COVID-19 in MN: looking for a possible change in trends

Minnesota enters the first full week of 2021 with the COVID-19 numbers in a much better place than a month ago.

But there have been signs in the past few days that the downward trend in new cases, hospital admissions and positive test rates may be stabilizing.

Sunday’s update from state health officials covered two days of data, recovering from the New Year’s Day holiday. This temporarily confuses weekly averages that may show pandemic trends better than day-to-day figures.

But ahead of Sunday’s updated figures, there were signs of possible stagnation in what had been a steady decline in several important metrics.

The average positivity rate for the test last week is now about 7.1% in Minnesota – up from 4.7% last Sunday. The average daily case count increased from about 1,700 at the beginning of last week to almost 1,900 in Saturday’s update.

It is too early to say whether these increases are a short-term aberration or whether they will last – and some statistics reports may be affected by the holiday season. It is something that will be closely monitored as we move through January – and officials were already watching for signs of rising cases that may be linked to holiday meetings.

New COVID-19 cases per day in Minnesota

The COVID-19 vaccination continues across the state. In Saturday’s Minnesota Department of Health update, just over 57,000 people had received at least one of the two-dose Pfizer or Moderna vaccines; that number was not updated on Sunday. Health professionals and residents of long-term care facilities have priority for the limited number of doses currently available.

The state has already received nearly 170,000 doses of the Pfizer vaccine and almost 128,000 of the Modern vaccine.

New COVID-19-related deaths reported in Minnesota each day

Here are the current ones from Minnesota COVID-19 Statistics, reported on Sunday and covering two days of data:

  • 5,430 deaths (53 new)

  • 420,544 positive cases (2,714 new), 403,419 out of isolation (96 percent)

  • 5.7 million tests, 3 million people tested (about 52 percent of the population)

  • Positive test rate of 7.1 percent in seven days (employees find 5 percent worrying)

New COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota
COVID-19 cases confirmed and active in Minnesota

Number of cases spread across age groups

People in their 20s still make up the age group with the highest number of confirmed cases in the state – more than 80,000 since the start of the pandemic, including more than 42,000 among people between the ages of 20 and 24.

New Minnesota COVID-19 cases by age, adjusted for population

The number of school-age youth confirmed with the disease has also grown, with more than 32,000 total cases between the ages of 15 and 19 since the pandemic began.

Although they are less likely to experience the worst effects of the disease and end up hospitalized, experts fear that young people and young adults may spread the disease to older relatives and members of other vulnerable populations.

It is particularly worrying because people can have the coronavirus and spread COVID-19 when they have no symptoms.

Graph of new ICU and non-ICU admissions COVID-19

New cases decline in Minnesota

Central and western Minnesota have driven much of the increase in new cases in the past two months, while Hennepin and Ramsey counties have shown some of the slowest case growth in the state.

Cases continue to fall across the state, with most regions falling to levels prior to the increase in the state’s COVID-19 that hit in November and early December.

New COVID-19 cases across the Minnesota region

Hot spots continue to emerge in rural counties in relation to their population.

MN municipalities with the fastest per capita growth in COVID-19 cases

The number of cases is even heavier among people of color

In Minnesota and across the country, COVID-19 hit communities of color disproportionately in cases and deaths. This was especially true for Minnesota residents during much of the pandemic.

New COVID-19 cases per capita by race

Even though counts of new cases easier since the peak a few weeks ago, the data show that people of color remain the hardest hit.

Mistrust in the government, along with deep-seated health and economic disparities, has hampered efforts to increase testing among communities of color, officials say, especially among unauthorized immigrants who fear that their personal information could be used to deport them.

Similar trends were seen among Minnesota’s indigenous residents. The number of indigenous people increased in October in relation to the population.


Statewide developments

Sauk Center hospital returns to routine operations as the number of COVID-19 patients falls

A Sauk Center, Minn., Hospital temporarily assigned to patients with COVID-19 returned to normal operations last week.

In November, CentraCare designated its hospital at the Sauk Center for less critical patients with COVID-19. The move was aimed at easing pressure on its largest hospital in St. Cloud, Minnesota, where the sickest patients are treated.

Since then, the number of people admitted to the hospital and intensive care unit has decreased.

Dr. George Morris, commander of medical incidents on the COVID-19 response team at CentraCare, says the number of patients in the ICU has dropped from 59 to more normal levels from 17 to 22 a day.

“We are at a point now, where we can see that we are consistently on the downward trend and that we can push them back into more of their regular work,” said Morris. “We have more employees on site. And we manage manners. Each time we go through these crises, we learn.”

Morris said staffing levels are also closer to normal. At one point, about 10 percent of CentraCare’s 13,000 employees were out of work due to exposure or positive testing for the virus, or for caring for a family member.

Last week, more than 2,000 CentraCare employees received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, along with residents and employees of five long-term care facilities, Morris said.

– Kirsti Marohn | MPR News


Top headlines

106-year-old COVID survivor receives vaccine in central Minnesota: At the Carris Health Care Center and Therapy Suites in Willmar, Minnesota, 20 residents received their starting doses on Tuesday. The first to receive the vaccine was Harriet Lobbins. She recovered after having COVID-19 in mid-November.

Opposition to COVID-19 Minnesota bar and restaurant restrictions still bubbling: Governor Tim Walz’s emergency restrictions on drinks and in-house dinners are valid until Jan. 10, and opponents say some establishments continue to defy order quietly. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said he will continue to file lawsuits against companies that fail to comply with obligations.

California announces the first confirmed case of the COVID-19 variant: California announced its first confirmed case of the new and apparently more contagious coronavirus variant. It was the second documented case in the United States in a day.

Pandemia brings a woman from Dakota home to southern Minnesota: In March, reporter Dan Kraker met Pat Northrup at her apartment in Cloquet, Minnesota, where she danced a jingle dressed in dance with her family and friends. Since then, the pandemic has changed his life; someone in his apartment contracted the virus and Northrup, now 70, decided to move in with his daughter, just a few kilometers west of the Lower Sioux indigenous community, where she grew up.


COVID-19 in Minnesota

The data in these charts are based on the Minnesota Department of Health cumulative totals released daily at 11 am You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at Department of Health website.

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