SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts once again face the unknown as another major holiday approaches during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is because the holidays have led to spikes in new cases of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. This was true again after Thanksgiving in Utah, but it was nowhere near the bump that public health officials feared.
Health experts expect a similar result after Christmas and New Year conclude the big holiday season.
“We are definitely going in the right direction with the numbers dwindling, but our biggest hurdle to come now is the Christmas / New Year holiday” and its impact on the situation of COVID-19, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, an infectious disease doctor from Intermountain Healthcare, said during a virtual question and answer session on Wednesday.
“Fingers cross that Utah comes together as a community as we did on Thanksgiving,” he added. “We didn’t see the big increase we expected because Utahns took it seriously. I hope to see the same thing at Christmas.”
Utah’s COVID-19 situation coming up for Christmas, New Year
When health officials said the post-Thanksgiving peak was not as bad as it feared, it is because the new cases did not raise the state’s continuous average of new cases to unprecedented levels. There were still new cases and hospitalizations as a result of Thanksgiving meetings.
To date, the seven-day continuous average of cases in Utah peaked at 3,364.7 cases per day on November 22 – four days before Thanksgiving. The average dropped to 2,296.9 cases per day on November 30 and then returned to 3,124.6 new cases per day on December 6, which falls within the window of the post-holiday incubation period. Since then, it has fallen steadily. Utah’s seven-day moving average is 2,419.3 cases per day, according to Wednesday’s health department update.
The decline is a welcome sight, but the extended data explains why health experts are wary of their optimism. For example, the test is still low compared to pre-Thanksgiving levels, and the test’s positive rate remains at 23.7% until December 17. The latter is a sign that COVID-19 is probably largely underreported in the state.
At the same time, hospitals are still crowded with rates that exceed state targets. The total number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 is 560. Intensive care unit utilization was 92% in referral hospitals in Utah and 90% across the state on Wednesday, according to the health department. state. The state warning limit for ICUs is 72% and the target usage limit is 85%. It is a situation that can improve only if the trends in counting new cases continue to decrease.
“Yes, our case count is low – a very encouraging sign – and we have some other indicators to show that we have actually decreased community transmission … but our test volumes are not as high as they could be and our test percentage is high, which means that we are probably missing a lot of active cases that are not being tested, “said Stenehjem.
“What we would have ideally seen is that our numbers (COVID-19) were really low before the holiday and the New Year, which would lessen any risk of transmission among families that are meeting. But we still have transmission rates really high, even though the numbers (new cases) are low “, he added.
Stenehjem said he anticipates that the test for COVID-19 will increase again in early 2021 as a result of the start of the student rapid test program in Utah and advances in testing options, such as home test kits.
What is recommended to stay safe on vacation
Many of the public health recommendations for Christmas and New Year are similar to those for Thanksgiving. In reviewing the post-Thanksgiving Utah COVID-19 case count data, Stenehjem said he believed this showed that many people took the advice seriously and that is why the post-holiday peak was not as bad as he feared.
“I hope this will happen again tomorrow for Christmas Eve and after a day for Christmas, and also in the New Year,” he said.
That is why the way meetings are handled can be the biggest factor in determining whether post-Christmas and post-New Year COVID-19 spikes in Utah are also not as severe as they are feared.
Stenehjem said again that the best advice would be for Utahns to avoid encounters between different families, which includes extended families.
If Utahns choose to meet with multiple families, it is recommended that these meetings are small and take into account high-risk contacts. Just because a meeting does not include people considered to be at high risk for serious COVID-19 infection, it does not mean that participants will not contact a high-risk individual after that meeting.
“If you decide to meet, you are really careful in terms of who you meet, in terms of small numbers, and you don’t meet people at high risk or who are exposed to people at high risk.” Stenehjem said. “Really think about who you are meeting with. What is their risk profile? What is the risk for them or for you if you are infected? And who are they going home to? And who could they infect if they were infected? at your meeting? “
Stenehjem added that hospitals are not immune from having to break traditions this holiday season. For example, festive parties are a staple food for doctors and nurses where he works, but have been discarded this year.
“This is not something we can safely do now,” he said, adding that they traded in for an ugly Christmas sweater competition to lighten the mood during a difficult period for hospital staff.
In the meantime, it is clear that there is still a reasonable risk of spreading COVID-19 at meetings. As of Wednesday, most Utah counties had a 20-30% chance of exposure to COVID-19 during a meeting of at least 10 people, according to Georgia Tech’s COVID-19 event risk management tool . The event risk tool was created to estimate the likelihood that a person will contact at least one other individual with COVID-19 at a meeting based on county population, COVID-19 case count data and taking into account underreporting.
The risk in highly populated Wasatch Front counties (Davis, Salt Lake, Utah and Weber) ranged from 30% in Salt Lake County to 36% in Utah County. Across the state, Daggett County had the lowest risk, less than 1%; Millard County had the highest risk, 46%, according to the model.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention once again offered holiday recommendations for all December holidays leading up to the New Year. CDC recommendations include:
- Perform religious ceremonies virtually if possible
- Decorate a holiday scene to share the Christmas spirit of home. It is also advisable to stay at home for family photos.
- Drive or walk through the holiday decorations to see them “from a safe distance”
- Organize the holidays online instead of in person. People can share a vacation playlist so that attendees can listen together, or even open gifts online together.
- Run a snowman or snow angel contest with neighbors or friends in the community, as long as each family stays at least 2 meters away while outside.
- Get in touch with local community service organizations and find out how you can give back. The authorities advise people to ask about security precautions in advance or see if there are ways to volunteer through “virtual opportunities”.
- Schedule “virtual visits” to the North Pole or make any visit to Santa Claus at least 2 meters away, also wearing a mask.
- If you have a party in person, try to limit the number of guests and have a “small outdoor party” with family and friends who live in the same community. It is advisable that people wear masks indoors and outdoors and that shouting and chanting are limited to any celebration or gathering involving multiple families.
The full list of agency recommendations on COVID-19 can be found here.
Related stories
Carter Williams