DPReview has just released their annual video forecasts from the camera industry, where Chris and Jordan discuss what they think will come from leading manufacturers. I think, for the most part, they hit their nose.
2020 was a “turn the apple cart” type of year. I think if it weren’t for the COVID-19 pandemic, we would have seen different decisions from the major camera manufacturers, and many of them looked at what they could do this year and found that they could wait another year before taking this action, they chose.
Looking forward to next year, this is what I (along with Chris and Jordan) think you can expect from the big names in 2021.
Canon
Chris and Jordan got it right when analyzing Canon’s position: the company is in very good shape when it comes to high quality. Shortly after the launch of the EOS R, Canon spent most of the time building its lens line. When he finally launched the R5 and R6, there was a robust lens library for backing up these two cameras.
The fact is that almost everything Canon sells in the RF line is extremely expensive, making it a challenge for anyone on a budget to get a foot in Canon’s mirrorless pool. The DPReview video duo believes that we will see cheaper Canon camera equipment in 2021, including a replacement RP, and I tend to agree with them.
One area that is somewhat unpredictable is what Canon plans to do with its M mount. As Jordan says, the “M50 Mark II was an embarrassing update”. It is true. This camera does not deserve the name “Mark II”, as Canon essentially gave it a firmware update and offered it for sale. I’m not at all confident in this hot shot, but I think Canon will keep it close. I don’t understand that the company wants to make smaller sensor products in the RF line, and the M line is the perfect place to offer this type of support while the RF line continues to serve those who want full frame.
Canon is difficult to predict because, although it is still at the beginning of the game without a mirror, the company seems very well positioned to do what it wants. The company’s mirrorless strategy seems to have paid off, and there is now so much flexibility where Canon can take its brand that it is difficult to predict. Canon fans have many reasons to remain optimistic.
Pentax / Ricoh
I think if you’ve been paying attention, it’s kind of easy to guess what Pentax / Ricoh is going to do in 2021: not much. We will buy the Pentax K3 Mark III, perhaps a new GR from the Ricoh brand, and perhaps a Pentax lens, but the company has been disappointed repeatedly for years. The leadership has repeatedly said it will never produce a Pentax product without a mirror and, seeing how long it takes the company to make lenses for its DSLRs, I believe them. There is no way, at the current pace, for Pentax to compete even if it produces a great mirrorless ILC: you would have to wait 5 or 6 years before there was any kind of flexible original glass library to use on such a camera.
I’m a little excited to see how the K3 Mark III integrates sensor stabilization, as we haven’t seen this technology in a DSLR before (at least not in my memory, I may be wrong). In addition, there is very little to say when it comes to Pentax / Ricoh.
Fujifilm
I have to admit, I can’t predict Fujifilm. I like the cameras, but I was never a “Fuji guy”. Jordan has a short list of expectations for the company in 2021 that primarily targets the company’s video capabilities. Fujifilm has been steadily increasing its video game over the past two years and entering Panasonic’s micro-thirds space. I think what Jordan says here is a smart guess: expect them to give more to video recorders.
I also agree that it would make sense to see Fujifilm play a little more with medium format cameras. At the moment, these cameras are large, bulky and still relatively expensive. Fujifilm could try to compress this excellent 100 megapixel sensor into a smaller, more accessible and even more accessible body.
Leica
Chris doesn’t seem to think we will see much in the way of Leica cameras this year, but rumors are circulating that disagree, such as one suggesting a more affordable rangefinder, as well as a new CL camera in early 2021.
Still, in the past two years, Leica has made a lot of cameras and I think Chris’s opinion that we will see more optics from the company this year is a pretty safe bet. The L-Mount could use more interesting and faster glass. I also think that Leica should leverage its ability to make interesting lenses, as opposed to the current trend in high-performance, soulless glass. I hope we can see them playing a little in that space.
We’ll get to that in the Panasonic section, but Leica’s autofocus needs to be improved: it’s not a good sign that the SL2 didn’t win me over until I used manual focus lenses. Unlike Panasonic that has DFD technology, Leica has only one competent system based on contrast, without the intelligence behind it. Leica only needs to license what Panasonic owns or needs to add phase detection. This middle ground you are sitting in is not working for anyone other than an amateur.
Nikon
Nikon has repeatedly been shown in a negative light in the news this year, mainly due to its financial situation. Things don’t look good in that regard, but I don’t think we’re close to seeing Nikon’s end. No, instead, I think the company will do what it continues to threaten to do: manufacture more mirrorless lenses and produce yet another DSLR.
Jordan’s prediction of a Z-mount sports body to compete with the Sony a9 is a very good guess, and I agree that we will see a new Nikon sports body in 2021, but it could be a DSLR or mirrorless. I’m not sure if Nikon has the technology to make a high performance mirrorless sport yet, but we know it can do that with DSLRs.
Sigma
Sigma is known mainly as a lens manufacturer, but technically it is also a camera manufacturer. Although Jordan says he expects to see a mirrorless camera from Foveon, I have my doubts. For years I have said that I hope that they will use this technology again and always predict that “this year will be the year”.
I think I got tired of waiting there.
I bet we see a compact, mirrorless, street / travel-oriented camera from Sigma, but I doubt if it uses the Foveon sensor. It has been so long since it has been seen on a camera that, at this point, I have to believe that Sigma is having a hard time making it an attractive option when faced with the market.
What is most likely is a “Series I” camera to match Sigma’s latest compact cousins.
Olympus
Chris and Jordan have the same opinion as me: it is hard not to believe that this is just the beginning of the end for Olympus. Japan Industrial Partners (JIP) bought the brand last year and it’s hard not to believe that it will gradually let the brand die.
Financially speaking, I don’t know how it makes sense for JIP, however. The Olympus purchase was not cheap and letting the brand fade away doesn’t seem like a solid financial strategy to me. I’m a little more confident that Olympus will be around for a while than Chris, but it’s really hard to say. We rarely see new camera brand owners in this industry, so it’s difficult to look at past situations and as a barometer of what we’re seeing now. Unfortunately, we will just have to wait and see.
Panasonic
Panasonic is my favorite camera brand and I have no doubt about saying that. I switched to Panasonic with the GH4 and now I use the GH5, S1, S5 and S1H with pleasure. Many who don’t use Panasonic products say the company’s DFD technology is bad and their insistence on contrast-based autofocus never goes anywhere, but I disagree. I think Panasonic will stick with DFD and continue to improve it. At that point, if Panasonic were to use phase detection, it would already.
I am also with Jordan: I am 100% confident that we will see the GH6 this year as a four-third video-focused micro camera that will have at least the same specifications that we see on the a7S III. I don’t think video recorders want more resolution and, as such, it will be a camera that will focus on absolutely incredible 4K performance.
Sony
I think that if 2020 was a normal year, the a7 IV would already be on the market. Sony took a very conservative approach to 2020 because, let’s face it, the company doesn’t need to take any more risks: it kind of owns the mirrorless space. This will not last forever, however, with Canon breathing deeply into its neck, and as such, we will certainly see Sony launch some impressive new products in 2021 starting with an a7 IV.
I think Sony will also make a stronger case for its APS-C line, hopefully leaving that A6000-style body behind. Fujifilm could use tougher competition, and I think Sony recognizes that.
In addition, some of the older G-Master lenses are in desperate need of an update – I’m looking at you 24-70 mm f / 2.8. I am quite confident that we will see new versions of these lenses coming this year with updated optics and the new autofocus engines.
Do you agree with Chis and Jordan? What did I miss or miss? What are your predictions for 2021? Let us know in the comments.