Indiana will end its domestic schedule on Saturday afternoon with the leader of the Big Ten, Michigan. The Wolverines are heading for the conference title and a No. 1 seed in next month’s NCAA tournament. Michigan has 17-1 overall and 12-1 in the league game.
Saturday’s game will end at noon ET on FOX with Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery on the call:
On the morning of February 18, Indiana was 12-9 overall, 7-7 on the Big Ten, and her way to a spot in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2016 seemed manageable. The Hoosiers had just taken over Minnesota the night before, 82-72, and had the state of Michigan a few days later at the Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.
Advance the calendar just a week later and Indiana’s chances of saving a season that once looked promising are bleak. After a 78-71 home loss to the Spartans last week – a game in which they led 13 in the first half – Indiana collapsed again on Wednesday night at Piscataway. The Hoosiers led the Scarlet Knights 23-8 in the first half and ended up losing 74-63 in a game that was not as close as the final score can make you believe.
Now Indiana is firmly on her back against the wall, closing the season with a series of brutal games: Michigan, Michigan State and Purdue. Without a win or two in this stretch, Indiana will need a good run in the Big Ten tournament just to get back to the tournament conversation. The most difficult of those three final games is the first, when Michigan arrives in Bloomington on Saturday. Led by sophomore coach Juwan Howard, the Wolverines have a chance to challenge Gonzaga and Baylor for first place in next month’s tournament.
MEET THE WOLVERINES
Michigan was chosen to finish sixth in the preseason conference, but is clearly the best team in the conference with less than three weeks left until Selection Sunday. The Wolverines are balanced and have the best defense and the third best attack of the Big Ten, which do not depend on a player to carry the burden like the Hoosiers.
On the front line, Michigan is led by the favorite of the ten freshmen of the year Hunter Dickinson, second year Franz Wagner and senior Isaiah Livers, who may be one of the most underrated players in the country.
Dickinson, one of DeMatha Catholic’s top 50 recruits, chose Michigan over Duke in what is proving to be a critical recruiting victory for Howard. Dickinson is in third place in KenPom’s national player of the year rating and averages up 14.9 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. The 2.10 m pivot is not going to be a lottery choice, but he is a highly effective post-scorer who is fundamentally correct with his powder movements and footwork. At 255 pounds, Dickinson is a burden to deal with when he puts the ball deep into the post and is finishing 64.1 percent of his 2s this season.
Wagner started the season slowly, but is a two-way player with a future in the NBA. He is third in the team with a score of 12.9 points per game and has been ultra-efficient in attack. In the Big Ten game, Wagner is making 39.6% of his 3s and 61.5% of his 2s. At 1.80 m and 100 kg with some guarding skills, it is not difficult to see a bright future at the next level for Wagner next season.
Livers, who was recruited by John Beilein, considered an early exit to the NBA. But the versatile wing returned to Ann Arbor for his senior campaign and now has a legitimate chance of winning a national championship. Livers is a 44.8 percent 3-point shooter this season and has the seventh best offensive rating of any Big Ten player in the league game. At 1.80 m tall, Livers is a sturdy cover because it can attract larger players to the perimeter and can easily finish over smaller defenders in the paint and on the edge.
Michigan defense court is anchored by Columbia transfer undergraduate Mike Smith and senior Eli Brooks, one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Smith is fifth in the Big Ten in assist rate (28 percent) and leads the Wolverines with 5.3 assists per game. He’s shooting 46.5 percent in the 3s. Brooks is connecting at a distance of 36.8 percent in the league game and is the fourth team with 8.9 points per game.
Michigan’s rotation features just three off-bench regulars on the Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brownsenior red shirt Austin Davis and junior Brandon Johns Jr. Brown, a six-foot guard, is the trio’s primary name. He is a courageous defender who is physical and provides a great boost of energy off the bench. Brown is also a competent sniper, who is taking down 3s with 41.9% speed.
TIME-FREE PRESENTATION AND KEYS TO THE GAME
• Can Indiana defend itself to a reasonable degree? The Hoosiers have not fought well for most of the Big Ten season and have collapsed in the last two games against Michigan State and Rutgers. Michigan is experienced, balanced and will make teams pay for mistakes defensively. If Indiana is not much sharper than in recent games, the Hoosiers have little chance of staying with one of the best teams in the country.
• How will Michigan attack Indiana? Last season’s game at Ann Arbor featured Zavier Simpson doing a clinic against the Hoosiers outside the attack. Michigan can still go that way with Smith leading the charge, but he also loves going to Dickinson’s post. Indiana will have to be prepared for both scenarios and be ready to adjust quickly.
• Will the Hoosiers make it to the free throw line? Indiana’s main offensive force is reaching the foul line and Michigan is the Big Ten’s best team in keeping their opponents off the line. Something will have to give way in this confrontation and if the Hoosiers can’t find a way to get to the line, it can be difficult to get points against Big Ten’s most petty defense.
WHAT’S SUMMARY
The KenPom projection is Michigan by eight with just 25 percent for a win in Indiana. This may seem a little high, based on how both teams are playing in Saturday’s game. The Wolverines have beaten Wisconsin, Rutgers, Ohio State and Iowa since they left a break at COVID-19 that covered the entire Michigan athletic department. Michigan has won six consecutive games in total.
Indiana, meanwhile, has lost two games in a row and appears to be in craters, rather than peaking, as the regular season draws to a close. The Hoosiers are not yet out of the NCAA tournament scene, but that can quickly become a reality if they fail to win two of the final three games.
(Photo credit: UMHoops.com)
Filed for: Michigan Wolverines