But not everyone can enter. In addition to “Nomadland”, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, “Promising Young Woman”, “Minari” and “Mank”, I am projecting nominations for best film for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, “One Night in Miami” and “The Father”. If a ninth nominee escapes, it will be “Judas and the Black Messiah”, which has been gaining momentum, or “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”, an unconventional choice of best film with many passionate fans.
Could the directors make history?
Only five women were nominated for an Oscar for best director: Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”), Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”), Sofia Coppola (“Lost in Translation”), Jane Campion (“The Piano”) and Lina Wertmüller (“Sete Beauties”). This year it is almost certain to add “Nomadland” director Chloé Zhao to these categories, and after receiving trophies at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, Zhao may even become the first woman since Bigelow in 2010 to win the Oscar for direction.
Even so, Zhao’s own presence in the category will make history, as no woman of color has ever been nominated for an Oscar for best director. And she may not be the only woman in her category: The Directors Guild of America also nominated Emerald Fennell (“a promising young woman”) for the group’s top award, while the Golden Globe included Zhao, Fennell and Regina King (“One Night in Miami “). If two or even three of these filmmakers reach the final five, it will be the first race for best director to feature more than one woman competing for the Oscars.
Will Chadwick Boseman receive two posthumous nominations?
The “Black Panther” star died last August at the age of 43, just a few months before his turn as the tortured trumpeter Levee in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”, which earned him the best reviews of his career. Boseman will easily reach his first best actor nomination, and after wins at the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, I would say that he is the safest bet in all four acting categories.
Voters are so eager to reward Boseman that his name may also appear in the supporting actor category for his pivotal role in Spike Lee’s drama in Vietnam, “Da 5 Bloods”. Still, the nomination is far less certain: the film has had an uneven history this awards season, and even Boseman’s co-star Delroy Lindo, the critics’ favorite, has no guaranteed nomination. It is also possible that Boseman’s victory as the best actor will be considered so certain that the academy will try to spread the wealth in the category of supporting actors, welcoming choices in the bubble, such as the highlight of “Sound of Metal” Paul Raci.