Gal Gadot stars as Wonder Woman in “Wonder Woman 1984”.
Warner Bros.
Can a superhero film filled with nostalgia convince people to leave their sofas and go to the cinemas? “Wonder Woman 1984” seeks to answer that question.
Movie theater owners hope that the sequel to “Wonder Woman”, which arrives on Christmas Day, will attract an important demographic group back to cinemas, despite the continued rise in coronavirus cases.
But, the ongoing pandemic is not his only concern. On the same day of the premiere of “Wonder Woman 1984” on the big screen, it will also be available for broadcast on HBO Max.
“‘Wonder Woman 1984’ represents the first test of the simultaneous release of a title of this magnitude to a large / small screen,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.
Box office analysts have differing opinions about the film’s performance at the national box office. “Wonder Woman 1984” underperformed last week on its international debut, grossing about $ 38.5 million. This was well below the $ 60 million forecast by the industry.
The film may face even more difficulties in the US and Canada, considering that only about 34% of cinemas are open. There are about 2,000 cinemas, reports Comscore.
“Putting a number on your possible opening weekend is difficult, as there is really no directly comparable launch scenario,” said Dergarabedian. the $ 10 million mark. “
He is referring to “The Croods: A New Age”, an animated film from Dreamworks, which premiered on Thanksgiving Day. It had the biggest debut of any film released during the pandemic, a paltry $ 9.7 million. For the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, it totaled $ 14.2 million.
Still, there is a pent-up demand for “Wonder Woman 1984”. This could convince viewers to go to the big screen instead of watching the movie at home.
“We are seeing ‘Wonder Woman 1984’ boost the strongest ticket pre-sale of any movie in the pandemic era so far, but I am cautiously inclined to over $ 10 million for the weekend due to the number of theater closings, public caution and a simultaneous streaming launch, “said Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice.com. “A figure close to $ 15 million could be reached, but there is a great deal of unpredictability to be considered now.”
Robbins said that premium screens like IMAX and Dolby Cinema are likely to be some of the best performing venues for the sequel, as they offer better quality sound and images. The renting of private parties, where moviegoers rent a theater for a group of up to 20 friends and family, will probably also generate a good portion of the box office.
In the past five years, the Christmas box office has generated at least $ 80 million in a single day. That number will not be seen this year, analysts agree.
In times without a pandemic, “Wonder Woman 1984” could have sold for between $ 100 million and $ 150 million, said Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. With so many cinemas closed, the coronavirus threat looming and the film’s availability on HBO Max, Pachter predicted a debut between $ 15 million and $ 25 million.
“While many choose to stay home this holiday and watch the movie, fans and families in markets where they are safe and able to do so can result in relatively fair numbers, although a far cry from what they would normally be for a blockbuster superhero sequel that opens at Christmas, “said Robbins.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Dreamworks Animation.