Russell Wilson’s trade speculation took a big hit this week. Reports emerged on Tuesday that the Seattle Seahawks informed the Chicago Bears that they will not be negotiating their star quarterback at this time. The next day, Willie Keeler detailed the clandestine encounter between John Schneider and GM Ryan Pace of Bears in Fargo. Now it’s a weekend and we all know how those conversations ended: Russell Wilson is still in Seattle and Andy Dalton is researching real estate in Illinois. But how valuable was the commercial package that Chicago was offering?
The Bears were so committed to negotiating for Wilson that the offer allegedly included three choices from the first round, a third round from 2021 and two “tickets” (air quotes around the tickets, as one of the apparent players involved has already been launched). At face value, three choices from the first round sound like a massive offer. But any team with Russell Wilson as a defender would instantly become a playoff contender, and teams that play in January usually don’t end up with top players in the first round in April. So how valuable are the final choices in the first round really?
Due to the expanded format, the Bears were able to sneak into a wild card position last season with an 8-8 record. As a result, his first selection in 2021 will be the 20th overall. As the Houston Texans joined the NFL in 2002, the teams that made it to the playoffs would receive national teams 21-32. However, with the expanded playoffs, teams that leave the wild card round can choose to go in 19th overall. In April, the Washington Football Team had the distinction of being the first team to do so – a place ahead of Bears.
If a Mitch Trubisky / Nick Foles team could make it to the playoffs, a team led by Russell Wilson, Bears, could be the permanent favorite of the Super Bowl. The two future choices of the first round would most likely continue to fall between 19 and 32 years in the following years. I want to see some ways to evaluate these choices. First of all, I want to look at the players actually selected in this range in previous years. Since the Bears offered three choices, I will examine the three most recent drafts. Second, I will analyze the value of the draft selection using a value graph to see what Seattle could achieve if it used the Chicago package to its advantage on the day of the draft.
Looking at the value based on previous player selections
Since the 2018 draft, teams that chose between 19 and 32 selected 42 players in total, and only six have received at least one Pro Bowl or All-Pro selection (1st or 2nd team). Below is the breakdown.
5 players selected between 19-32 since 2018 have made at least one Pro Bowl
- Dallas 1.19 (2018) – Leighton Vander Esch, LB
- Detroit 1.20 (2018) – Frank Ragnow, C
- Baltimore 1.32 (2018) – Lamar Jackson, QB
- Oakland / LV 1.24 (2019) – Josh Jacobs, RB
- Minnesota 1.22 (2020) – Justin Jefferson, WR
5 players were selected as first or second team. All professionals
- Frank Ragnow (2020)
- Lamar Jackson (2019)
- Leighton Vander Esch (2nd team, 2018)
- Calvin Ridley (2nd team, 2020) – selected at 1.26 by Atlanta in 2018
- Justin Jefferson (2nd team, 2020)
In addition to these names, there were a few other players selected who are likely to be professional pitchers or at least longtime NFL beginners – players like Montez Sweat, Noah Fant, Kenneth Murray and Jordyn Brooks – but none of these players would replace a franchise defender like Russell Wilson. Although I personally love to watch Lamar Jackson play, the 2019 All-Pro and MVP is approaching payday and has the same playoff record as Wilson for the past three seasons (1-3). The possibility of a quarterback dropping to 19 or more, which could replace or even approximate Russ is highly unlikely in most drafts and seems especially unlikely in 2021, where many simulated drafts have five QBs in the first fifteen choices.
Looking at the draft selection value using the Rich Hill graph
If Seattle tried to package Chicago’s choices in an effort to exchange the draft, how much advantage would they have? The Rich Hill of Pat Pulpit created a preliminary check value chart updated in 2017 based on the actual trades that have taken place since the 2011 CBA. According to Davis Hsu, this chart is much closer to the methods used by the Seahawks than the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart.
According to the most recently updated version of this chart at Draftek, the choice of the first round of 2021 in Chicago is rated at 269. The justification for evaluating future choices varies depending on the team and the projected strength of the draft class, among other factors (Chicago’s acquisition of Russell Wilson probably too), but a common method is to classify a future choice as a later round for each year in the future. That is, the Bears 2022 and 2023 of the first round would be evaluated in the same way as their 2021 choices for the second and third rounds.
Using this formula, the bear trade package has a cumulative value of 482. Looking at the graph above, this would be enough, theoretically, to move to the fifth general selection of Bengal in 2021, and within the scope of the choice of Hawks on Wednesday. But it all depends on whether Cincinnati or Atlanta would have any interest in making their choices. And even though Seattle could make a deal to go up, the PFF’s last simulated draft has three QBs coming off the board in the first three choices. I find it hard to imagine that Carroll and Schneider would feel comfortable giving up their franchise quarterback just to have the opportunity to climb Trey Lance.
At this point, it is quite clear why Pete Carroll did his part to ensure that this trade did not decline. Quite simply, as Mookie pointed out recently, if Seattle were to negotiate Russel Wilson, they would be voluntarily initiating a full-scale reconstruction. Loading in the first round seems intriguing; Young and talented players with 5-year options can be instrumental in building a competitive roster. But using this method to replace a franchise defender is not a sustainable model of success. Now, excuse me, while I relax and savor that Chicago broke down at Russell Wilson and all they got was a shipment of Andy Dalton T-shirts to their sporting goods store.