With five consecutive wins, NC State has done the only thing it can to put itself in the conversation about the NCAA tournament bubble.
The only thing NC State (13-9) cannot control is what other teams in the bubble do. But a little “lucky bubble” may be what determines the fate of the Wolfpack NCAA tournament.
(Along with wins over Syracuse and Virginia this week in Greensboro at the ACC tournament, of course.)
There is a tendency to look at NC State victories (Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Virginia, Pittsburgh twice) since the home defeat to Duke on February 13 and shrug. Only the 68-61 victory in Virginia on February 24th really boosted Wolfpack’s NCAA curriculum.
Having games with Michigan, Connecticut, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech (last Saturday) canceled because of the COVID protocols really hurt the chances of NC State tournaments on the NCAA.
(Not winning at Clemson on January 5 in overtime – after leading most of the game – didn’t help either.)
But the bubble is never just about what your team has done. It’s about what the other teams in the bubble have also done.
Consider what some other teams, in a better position three weeks ago, did recently:
Duke
Since defeating NC State on February 13, Duke (11-11) has split his six games with expensive losses for Louisville, Georgia Tech and UNC.
In Saturday’s loss to UNC, Duke no longer looked like a team interested in playing basketball this season.
The Blue Devils are between 11-11 in the ACC tournament and basically have to win it – five games in five days – to extend their NCAA tournament streak, which started in 1996.
Two teams, Georgia in 2001 and Villanova in 1991, received overall proposals for the NCAA tournament with a record of 16-14 (0.533 is the lowest percentage for an overall team).
But these teams had the benefit of superior ratings of programming power. In a pandemic, this metric has almost always been castrated. Or in the case of Duke, he only has “good losses” outside of ACC and has played an abbreviated schedule, so it will not be useful.
Boise State
Boise State was 16-4 after a home victory over UNLV on February 13. The Broncos have been 2-3 since then and have lost their last three games.
The Broncos (18-7) have a quality win outside the Mountain West conference over BYU and league wins over the Colorado State and Utah State bubble teams.
Even though an overall record looks better than NC State’s, is Boise’s curriculum really better?
A parlor plot to which we will probably never get an answer: how much will MWC commissioner Craig Thompson on the selection committee help Boise, CSU and Utah State?
When you look at the edge of the bubble, there are three MWC teams there. Even someone entering (without winning the conference tournament) takes a place outside the frame.
UCLA
UCLA is in the field in most bracket projections. The Bruins are 17-8, but the highlight of their resume is “they didn’t do anything stupid” – except for the current streak of three consecutive defeats.
The Bruins have played with three teams that are likely to be on the pitch in the last three games (Colorado, Oregon, USC) and have lost all three games.
I like “your defeats don’t matter as much as your wins”, but at some point, you have to stop losing games.
Bruins have a lot of empty calories on their resume and little substance.
How will the committee treat teams that look good on paper (and should be rewarded for getting games in the books in a pandemic), but don’t have many good wins?
We will not know the answer until Selection Sunday.
Syracuse
Syracuse had 12-6 on February 13 after a home win over Boston College. Since then, Orange has won 4 out of 6, including major wins over UNC and Clemson.
The good news for NC State is that Wolfpack will face Orange in the ACC tournament. The bad news is that Syracuse won the regular season.
Syracuse, like NC State, has an annual time-share in the bubble (at least since leaving Big East in 2013). Orange is weak in the “Q1” wins (1-6, an NC State win on February 9), but reinforced its resume with three wins over the likely teams on the tournament field (UNC, Clemson, Virginia Tech ).
This game in Greensboro on Wednesday looks like the NC State ACC tournament match with Clemson in 2019. The winner may not be in the NCAA tournament, but the loser is definitely out.
NC State defeated Clemson in that ACC tournament game and lost the next day to Virginia. Wolfpack ended up at NIT.
Will history repeat itself or is this NC team different?