It was an exchange. But it was also a free agency.
The Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians in exchange for four players. But they also bought them.
Cleveland’s renowned baseball operations department investigated what they could get for Lindor, Carrasco and the duo together. Ultimately, job one, due to the 2021 budget provided by the property, was to escape as much of the $ 47 million owed to the pair – notably the $ 33 million for 2021 – as much as possible. And, within that, get as many young (cheap) talents as possible.
So Cleveland decided to put Lindor and Carrasco together and accept a lesser return on Mets talent. The hope of the Indians was that, in doing so, with so many free agents and possibilities for trade remaining in this slow market, they will be able to spend a part of what they saved and want to look for opportunities to strengthen the squad to remain competitive in meh AL Central.
Mostly, though, they had to get out of the money.
Thus, the first gigantic move by the Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson regime has similarities to the first substantial transaction by the Brodie Van Wagenen regime.
This was also a free agency masked by trade. The Mariners were willing to include Edwin Diaz in a negotiation to make Robinson Cano disappear with the same certainty that the Indians were willing to lower Lindor’s value to escape the entire two years by $ 27 million still owed to Carrasco.
The problem: the Mets took on a much larger financial obligation in Cano than in Carrasco, while obtaining a smaller share in Diaz than in Lindor and also giving up a much more desirable business record in Jarred Kelenic than in Andres Gimenez.
Some thoughts:
Kelenic has yet to reach and succeed in the majors. For now, the Mets’ biggest sin with him has been to negotiate him less than a year after hiring him and therefore not realizing the kind of value he has accumulated with just one full season of the minor league.
Baseball’s biggest crime was trading an asset that had the ability to haunt the Mets in what was essentially a desperate wage eviction by the Mariners. In analyzes of Lindor’s trade by outside executives (all of whom saw him as a victory for the Mets), they all cited that no one who the Mets surrendered would burn them, even if everyone professed admiration for Gimenez. Again, let’s take a break from this. I am a huge fan of talented players who, although young, show a high IQ in baseball and sincerity of effort. Gimenez checks these boxes.
In addition, it should be noted that the two prospects in commerce – Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf – were second-round selected during Van Wagenen’s term and negotiated by Alderson. Kelenic and Dunn were the first players in Alderson’s first term that were negotiated by Van Wagenen. The Mets have been writing well for years, and if there was praise for the Van Wagenen era, it was that he handled recruitment well in his two attempts. However, Greene and Wolf’s criticisms are that they are years away and, at best, the prospects for lottery tickets – although, again, time is the final arbiter.
Cano was a much more distressed piece than Carrasco. When it comes to this type of player, think about how much they would receive as a free agent if they were available. Cano was suspended for 80 games in 2018 by a positive test for a banned performance enhancer. He was entering his 36 year season in 2019. If he had been a free agent after the 2018 season, therefore, he would have received, what? A two-year contract of $ 20 million at most, probably not even that. Maybe a year.
Cano was five years old with $ 120 million remaining, and even with the Mariners eating $ 20 million and catching Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak, the Mets still owed five years for $ 63.5 million. To gain access to Diaz, it was too much to absorb that money and give up Kelenic. I can’t imagine that another team would have taken on close to what Mets did for Cano, even to acquire Diaz.
Carrasco is two years old with $ 27 million remaining, assuming his 2023 option is not accepted. He is a leukemia survivor entering his 34-year season, but is coming out of an ERA of 2.91 in 12 matches. Could he have equaled Mike Minor’s two years, $ 18 million in this small market? Carrasco has an excellent reputation as a person and teammate, and when aggressive with his fastball, his secondary things – that is, his change and slider – still make him a strong starter. He is much closer to two years, worth $ 27 million, than Cano was five years ago, with $ 63.5 million. Much closer.
The Mets had a winning percentage of .432 in 2017 before Van Wagenen took over and .433 last year before Cohen bought the club. Both administrations came in and believed that the previous club underperformed their talents and that the changes would make them instant winners.
So Van Wagenen bypassed the best catchers on the market (JT Realmuto in an exchange and Yasmani Grandal in a free agency), concerned that waiting for the free Grandal agency to leave would cost opportunities elsewhere and instead hired Wilson Ramos. He also signed an appeaser, Jeurys Familia. His first blockbuster was the masked free agency trade movement for Diaz / Cano.
So far, the Cohen / Alderson Mets have bypassed the best catcher on the market (Realmuto in free agency) concerned that waiting for the free Realmuto agency to leave would cost opportunities elsewhere and instead hired James McCann instead. They also signed an appeaser, Trevor May. Then, they made the free agency move masquerading as a trade-off for Lindor / Carrasco.
Van Wagenen’s mistake was that a team should never offer a lot of money or big assets (Mets used both) to a reliever, unless it is positive that it is a candidate. Because having a lock with few wins to close is like having a beautiful roof in an external bathroom.
A shortstop like Lindor helps daily, although any Mets fan would sign up for him to produce a .316 / .352 / .444 cut line next year – which, by the way, was Cano’s last season. Of course, Cano was arrested again for being a PED cheater. Lindor’s salary will be $ 20 million or more, or what the Mets is saving with Cano losing his 2021 salary. Cano, however, is still expected to pay $ 40 million for two years for 2022-23 after his suspension.
So this can be the biggest difference between these Mets and these Mets. These Mets, under the command of the Wilpons, squandered in trying one last attempt at competitive relevance, with the owners likely aware that they would sell. Cohen is now on a long journey with the sport’s deepest pockets. He can handle Cano’s salary and a likely extension for Lindor. Cohen has the money to navigate the failed agency, masked as an operation by his predecessor, while trying to do it himself.