Buffalo Bills boasts one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. That was not the case a year ago.
The 2019 bills were offensively mediocre. They averaged less than 20 points per game. Josh Allen was still an inexperienced quarterback, subject to confusing decisions. Buffalo set up an elite defense for a playoff spot, winning a lot of low-scoring rock fights along the way.
This year’s accounts are different. They are scoring almost 10 more points per game (29.1). Allen became a Pro Bowler and NFL MVP candidate. His passing attack, perennially one of the weakest in the league, now ranks fifth in yards per game and sixth in yards per attempt.
“Offensively, they are at the top of the league in almost every category, starting with the score,” said Bill Belichick last week, as his New England Patriots prepared to receive the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Here’s a look at how much Buffalo’s attack has improved since last season:
2019
Points per game: 19.6 (23rd)
Yards per game: 330.2 (24th)
Yards per game: 5.19 (22)
Overtaking yards per game: 201.8 (26th)
Yards per attempted pass: 6.29 (20th)
First descents per game: 19.6 (T-20)
Football Outsiders offensive DVOA: 21st
Pass offense DVOA: 20
2020
Points per game: 29.1 (sixth)
Yards per game: 386.7 (fifth)
Yards per game: 6.02 (sixth)
Overtaking yards per game: 278.5 (third)
Yards per attempted pass: 7.53 (sixth)
First descents per game: 24.2 (seconds)
Football Outsiders offensive DVOA: sixth
Offensive DVOA pass: room
How did they do that? Allen’s most consistent and responsible game certainly helped. But he benefited tremendously from the NFL’s most important off-season addition: wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Diggs, acquired from Minnesota Vikings for a first round draft and two final rounds, was nothing short of sensational in his first season at AFC East. The 27-year-old entered Week 16 first in the NFL for receptions (111) and third for reception yards (1,314). He is a true No. 1 wideout – one of the top 10 players in his position – and his presence has completely transformed the Bill’s attack.
In addition to his own production, Diggs’ arrival also put Cole Beasley, John Brown and newcomer Gabriel Davis in more natural roles as 2/3/4 options, giving the Bills a broader and more balanced stable. Brown, Buffalo’s main target in 2019, has been slowed by injuries this season, but Beasley is enjoying an excellent year in the slot machine, establishing the best of his career in catches (79) and yards (950) with two games remaining.
“(Diggs) helped a lot,” said Belichick. “He’s the biggest receiver in the league. He’s very targeted. He made great individual plays. Sometimes he goes up and takes the ball from the defenders – plays that you think will be incomplete passes, and he ends up with the ball. … He added a lot to this team. “
The Belichick Patriots were reportedly running for Diggs in the last off-season, talking to the Vikings about the then unhappy recipient before being traded to Buffalo. Ultimately, New England opted not to make big plays in the wideout, hiring two cheap free agents at Damiere Byrd and Marqise Lee (who later opted out of the season) and ignoring a crop laden with draft candidates in the position.
The hope, of course, was that N’Keal Harry would make a significant leap in Year 2, Mohamed Sanu would look more like the player who was in Cincinnati and Atlanta and Julian Edelman would remain healthy and productive. None of these things happened.
Harry has an average of 2.5 receptions and less than 25 yards per game. Sanu was cut on the training ground. Edelman limped in the first six games, fell on reserve due to injury and hasn’t played since. Byrd and especially Jakobi Meyers have had solid seasons, but neither is the caliber of player that a team wants to lead its receiving corps.
New England ranks 20th or worse in each of the eight offensive categories mentioned, including the penultimate in points per game.
The list of problems with this 6-8 Patriots squad is long – erratic quarterback play, zero production in the tight final position, major problems in defensive front seven, etc. – but finding a legitimate number 1 receiver needs to be near the top of the off-season list.
Fortunately for New England, this year’s crop of impending free agents includes several players who would fit that profile (or at least be updates on current options). Chicago Bears star Allen Robinson is the headliner, followed by names like Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Will Fuller. Further down the list are names like Corey Davis, TY Hilton, Marvin Jones, Curtis Samuel, Keelan Cole and Nelson Agholor.
The Patriots rarely shell out a lot of money for outsiders – Robinson is likely to be out of his preferred price range – but they are expected to enter the spring with about $ 60 million in salary cap space, the fourth largest in the league. They have the resources to improve this position group – and they need it.
The Bills’ offensive explosion is proof of how valuable a true number 1 pass receiver can be. If the Patriots want to recover from their worst offensive campaign in two decades, they cannot continue to operate without it.
Miniature photo via Mark Konezny / USA TODAY Sports Images