SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – New President of the USA, the same old North Korean manual. Almost.
Two months after the inauguration of President Joe Biden, North Korea is again turning to weapons testing to pull off external concessions. But the tests so far have been relatively small compared to previous releases. This indicates that Washington has a window of engagement before North Korea makes further provocation.
This week, North Korea’s neighbors reported that the country fired four short-range missiles into the sea in its first missile launches in about a year. The launches – two on Sunday, two on Thursday – came after the North said it had rejected the Biden government’s offers of dialogue, citing what it called US hostility.
Here is a look at North Korea’s recent missile launches and their reasons.
WHAT’S DIFFERENT IN NORTH KOREA’S STRATEGY THIS TIME?
North Korea has a long history of conducting major weapons tests at a time when new governments take power in the United States and South Korea.
In February 2017, less than a month after Donald Trump took over the presidency of the United States, North Korea tested a medium-range missile that, according to observers, showed an advance in weapon mobility. Later in 2017, four days after the inauguration of current South Korean President Moon Jae-in, North Korea fired what it called a newly developed intermediate-range missile with nuclear capability.
In 2009, North Korea conducted the launch of a long-range rocket and nuclear test in the first four months of the Obama administration’s first term.
This week’s weapons tests appear to follow this handbook, but experts believe the country has avoided a more serious provocation because the Biden government is still evaluating its policy towards North Korea.
The four missiles fired this week were all short-range and do not pose a direct threat to the continent of the United States. According to South Korea’s assessment, the first two weapons launched on Sunday are believed to be cruise missiles. But Japan said the two fired on Thursday were ballistic missiles, the most provocative weapons that North Korea is banned from testing by UN Security Council resolutions.
“The basic pattern is not much different. But while North Korea in the past has focused on showing its maximum capability when a new government arrives in the United States, I feel that the North is trying to control the level of (its provocation), ”said Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at Seoul Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
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WHAT DOES NORTH KOREA WANT?
What I always wanted: “For the United States to withdraw sanctions and, at the same time, let them maintain their nuclear capability,” said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst at the Korean National Strategy Research Institute, based in Seoul.
As the Biden government is unlikely to do so anytime soon, some experts say North Korea may stage bigger provocations, such as a long-range missile test or nuclear detonation.
For now, it is increasing its rhetoric along with short-range missile launches.
In January, about 10 days before Biden took office, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced that he would increase his nuclear arsenal and strengthen the country’s combat capability to face hostile US policy and military threats. He also pressured South Korea to suspend regular military exercises with the United States if it wants better ties.
When the US and South Korean military advanced their spring exercises this month, Kim’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned the United States to “avoid causing malaise” if they want to “sleep in peace” for the next four years old.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Washington sought out Pyongyang from mid-February, but Pyongyang did not respond. Along with the opening, however, Blinken continued to criticize North Korea’s human rights record and nuclear ambitions when he visited Seoul last week. North Korea’s first deputy foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, said his country would continue to ignore these offers from the US because of what it called American hostility.
The recent launches appear to be an example of North Korea “putting Kim Yo Jong’s threats into action, as she said the United States cannot sleep in peace unless it accepts its demands,” said Moon Seong Mook.
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WHAT IS THE NEXT?
Experts say the Biden government is highly unlikely to back down and make concessions in the face of North Korea’s short-range missile launches. Biden, who called Kim a “thug”, is also unlikely to sit down for face-to-face talks with Kim unless he receives a promise that North Korea will denuclearize – and officials confirm that the country is sincere.
In the midst of the impasse, North Korea may end up launching larger arms tests, especially if it is not satisfied with the revision of the Biden government’s policy on North Korea, which is due to be published soon, experts say.
“Biden will probably not do a Trump-style ‘reality show’ with Kim. Kim’s agony over the next four years will later be deepened and his nuclear game cannot fail to continue, ”said Nam Sung-wook, a professor at the University of South Korea.
North Korea could use long-range missiles and even nuclear tests, which Kim Jong Un suspended when it began to engage diplomatically with Washington. Although Kim Jong Un claimed to have achieved the ability to attack the U.S. homeland with nuclear missiles, outside experts said the North had not mastered everything that would be needed to do so.
This great provocation would certainly lead the United States and its allies to seek additional UN sanctions against North Korea.
But tougher sanctions can be difficult because China, the North’s main diplomatic ally and economic salvation, exercises veto power in the UN Security Council. Given current tensions with Washington, China may not easily agree to further sanctions, even if North Korea engages in long-range missiles or nuclear tests, analyst Cha said.