A COVID-19 “super-spreader” strain that devastated the UK is now in Michigan.
So far, three cases of the variant known as B.1.1.7 have been confirmed among people associated with the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
7 COVID-19 cases linked to a woman from County Washtenaw who has a UK variant
The variant does not make people sicker, but it appears to be about 50% more transmissible than other variants.
Here’s what the Michiganders need to know.
There is no reason to panic.
“People shouldn’t go crazy,” Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease specialist at Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids. “Mutations are not expected. They are very normal ”with viruses.
Dr. Anthony Ognjan, an infectious disease specialist at McLaren Health in Macomb County, agreed, adding that COVID-19 has already started to operate at “maximum evolution”.
“If you look at any species, it wants to replicate itself and pass on its genes.” Ognajan said. “This virus is already perfect. It didn’t need much adjustment, as it was highly infectious to begin with. Therefore, this variant is not going to change its ability to spread drastically.
“We are now putting natural selection pressure on this virus. We are receiving many more people with the virus who are becoming immune and we have started vaccination. The natural step for the virus is to become more contagious or it will be wiped off the face of the earth. “
That said, experts say B.1.1.7 and other variants can be problematic in several ways.
This could significantly increase coronavirus cases, resulting in more hospitalizations and deaths.
A more transmissible variant can infect more people more quickly, leading to more cases in general, without mitigation efforts.
Based on how the strain impacted the United Kingdom, if it becomes the dominant strain in Michigan, it could practically double the number of coronavirus cases in Michigan in weeks, according to projections from the University of Michigan Public School.
Even if individual people don’t get sick anymore, it would likely result in more hospitalizations and deaths.
“I think people hear that it is no longer deadly, which is true. But because it is more infectious, it will naturally create a higher mortality rate because more people will be infected, ”said Kerry Ott, public health officer in the LMAS District Health Department on the Upper Peninsula. The department serves the counties of Luce, Mackinac, Alger and Schoolcraft.
It also has the potential to put more pressure on healthcare systems, said Dr. Christine Nefcy, medical director at Munson Healthcare in Traverse City.
“We are kind of expecting this, or at least preparing for it,” just based on experience with the variant in the UK, she said.
It is important to protect health systems from being invaded, as they are trying to balance the service to residents and the administration of the COVID-19 vaccine, said Ott.
This could make collective immunity more difficult to achieve.
“This has implications for herd immunity,” said Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, at a news conference on Wednesday.
“If a virus is more easily transmitted between humans, we have to have a higher percentage of vaccinated humans in the population to stop transmission,” she said.
Herd immunity is the point at which a sufficient number of people are vaccinated and / or have natural immunity that the virus disappears.
Current vaccines appear to work against B.1.1.7
“The good news is that the test capability we have tests this variant and the vaccine appears to work for that variant,” said Nefcy.
Sullivan said that one of the biggest concerns about the virus’s mutations is the “leakage of the vaccine”, which is what happens when a vaccine stops working.
“Just for reference, it takes many, many mutations for this to happen,” he said. “A mutation is not going to lead to the vaccine escaping. But the mutations can potentially decrease (the vaccine’s effectiveness) over time.
“So we have to be on the lookout for these variants and test them as they appear,” he said. “Because if we need to adjust the vaccines, it’s better to be ahead of the game than to be caught completely off guard.”
Duplicate mitigation strategies.
Another good news is that the same strategies that can prevent the transmission of other strains of COVID-19 also work with strain B.1.1.7.
“We need people to keep doing the little things we told them to do a year ago,” said Ott. “Wear a mask, don’t meet people outside your home and stay home if you don’t feel well. We are a long way from having enough people vaccinated. “
The new B.1.1.7 strain is not transmitted differently; it is still transmitted by droplets and aerosols, ”said Sullivan. “It’s just when people are exposed to it, it seems to be holding on tighter and making it a little easier to cause infection. I think this reinforces the need to continue wearing your mask, to continue avoiding crowds, to maintain social distance. In fact, this is more important now. “
In particular, be sure to mask correctly.
The mask is a critical measure in preventing coronavirus, but that means wearing a mask properly with your nose and mouth covered.
It also means using effective masks. Single layer fabric masks are better than nothing, but individuals can get better protection using disposable medical masks or double or triple layer cloth masks, said Sullivan.
He recommends KN95 medical masks, which are more comfortable and more readily available than N95 masks, but almost as effective.
“I would definitely encourage people to try to get the highest quality mask they can,” said Sullivan.
All the more reason to get a vaccine.
Vaccination is the best prevention against the new strain.
“We are in a race to get people vaccinated” as soon as possible, Governor Gretchen Whitmer told a news conference on Wednesday. “It is a race against this variant.”
One positive side of the variant: it can encourage people who hesitate to vaccinate to change their mind.
“I think it could happen. For sure, ”said Sullivan. “If it motivates someone to get vaccinated, that would be a great gift.”
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