If Matthew Stafford can command such a large acquisition in a trade, what in the world will the younger and better Deshaun Watson be worth?
It’s the question that everyone in the NFL was pondering on Saturday night. The problem is that using the Rams-Lions trade as a measurement measure is not an entirely fair comparison for some reasons.
If Texans reverse the course of this week’s “zero interest” stance and decide to comply with Watson’s negotiating request, they’ll want two choices in the first round, two choices in the second round and two young defensive beginners “at the very least”, according to the Houston Chronicle.
The Rams exchanged two choices in the first round, one choice in the third round and quarterback Jared Goff for the Lions for Stafford.
But one complication is that not all first-round choices are created equally.
The Rams, who have not made a choice in the first round since 2016 because of a series of negotiations, have won at least nine games in each of the past four seasons and therefore usually win a choice after the top 20. That draft position could drop lower in the future if Stafford raises the Rams to a Super Bowl contender.
The Jets and Dolphins – two of the main contenders for Watson – hold choices # 2 and # 3, respectively, in the NFL’s 2021 Draft.
Using the old points graph created by Jimmy Johnson for the value of the draft pick, the choice of Jets is worth 2,600 points and the choice of Dolphins (originally belonging to the Texans) is worth 2,200, while the choice of Rams in No. 25 (which now belongs to the Jaguars) is worth only 720 points. In other words, a choice of the top three is worth the top three in the Rams line.
The other complication is Goff’s contract. Considering that having Watson under contract until 2024 in a four-year deal, $ 156 million is seen as fair market value, Goff’s recent performance does not equal his big deal.
The Rams were reportedly tied to deal with the increase in Stafford’s $ 20 million salary cap and the four-year extension, $ 134 million they gave Goff. So, they absorbed a dead limit of $ 22.2 million to get rid of Goff’s salary.
The Lions allegedly wanted a bigger return to take over the Goff contract – hence the additional draft choices when other teams were willing to split up with a larger choice of the first round for Stafford.
But because the Rams are at risk for prorated signing bonus money, Lions are making a one or two-year commitment to Goff as its holder. He could be released after 2022 with no dead limit for Lions.
If the asking price reported for Watson is correct, the Jets could separate from draft compensation without much impact. They have four choices in the first round, two choices in the second round and three choices in the third round in the next two drafts.
The hardest part for the Jets would be to add two defensive young players. The Texans would almost certainly demand defensive lineman Quinnen Williams as one of the two.
It could be argued that asking the third-year professional Williams is like asking for a third choice of the first shift to accompany the rest of the package.