Flu cases locally and across Pennsylvania remained low compared to the record case count seen in the 2019-20 flu season. But doctors warned on Tuesday that it is still the start of the season, and the usual increase in January could coincide with an increase of 19 cases due to the holiday.
On December 19, 767 laboratory confirmed flu cases were reported across Pennsylvania. The official flu surveillance season begins in the 40th week of the year – this season, September 27 – and ends in the 20th week of the following year. This season will end on May 22.
Across the state, just under 130,000 cases of flu were confirmed in the 2019-20 season, which ended at the time the covid-19 pandemic began to settle. The influenza count did not include covid-19 cases.
Did masks and distance help?
“It may just be the anomaly of a flu season, or it may be that collective efforts to mask and distance and not congregate also have a benefit in the transmission of flu – and other viral pathogens,” said Dr. Donald Yealy, president of the emergency medicine service at UPMC.
He said it is too early to say what has caused so little flu across the state so far this season.
“I would not declare victory yet,” he said. “Often, the flu season doesn’t really start until January or until February, so there is still an opportunity.”
He said that low flu numbers have affected not only UPMC, but all of Allegheny County. The county health department reported 35 cases on December 19.
Last year, during the 2019-20 flu season, there were 3,141 cases reported on December 21, 2019.
Increase coming, but by how much?
Dr. Marc Itskowitz, an internal medicine physician at the Allegheny Health Network, said there was concern that an increase in flu cases in January could occur at the same time as an increase in the number of covid-19 cases driven by vacation travel and meetings in the last weeks of December.
He said the increase in the case of counts could occur two or three weeks after the trip and meeting, and hospitalizations could follow in another two or three weeks.
Yealy said that although he cannot predict the timing or severity of any future influenza or covid-19 outbreaks, they are almost a certainty.
“What I am sure of is that there will be more respiratory viruses from any of them in the coming weeks,” he said. “The question is how much will it cost, and we still don’t know.”
There have been no cases of flu in patients hospitalized so far this season at any UPMC or AHN facility.
Some flu cases in Westmoreland also
Dr. Carol Fox, medical director at Excela Health, said flu activity was also low in Westmoreland County, noting that there was no “normal increase” in cases that usually begin in late November or December.
She also said that this could be due to the mitigation measures in place to slow the spread of covid-19.
The low case count means that the state Department of Health has not released an analysis of county flu numbers by county. The numbers for each municipality will be released when they are at a level “that protects the confidentiality of patients’ health information”, according to the website.
Because of this, influenza case counting was not available for Westmoreland County, which does not have its own county-level health department. The county ended the 2019-20 season with 3,636 confirmed cases.
Itskowitz cautioned against drawing parallels between covid-19 and flu numbers or between the effects of mitigation efforts. The two are not comparable.
“Flu is less contagious than covid-19,” he said.
He noted that most people who get the flu have symptoms within a day or two, while those who are infected with covid-19 may not have symptoms for up to two weeks – if they show them. This dramatically reduces opportunities for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, he said.
Flu deaths: 102 vs. coveted: 15,300
In the 26 weeks that made up the 2019-20 flu season – from September 29 to March 28 – Pennsylvania saw 102 flu-related deaths. In the nearly 43 weeks since the first covid-19 case was diagnosed in Pennsylvania, more than 15,300 people have died of the virus across the state.
There are no previous figures with which to compare covid-19 cases, and Yealy said that even comparing the two viruses beyond the surface is false.
“What is similar about the two is that they both spread by close contact and are both respiratory viruses,” he said, noting that this is where the comparables stop. “Yes, the flu kills many. This (covid-19) is associated with even more death and suffering.
“Saying just ‘it’s the flu’ is really a dramatic understatement. And it is not an excuse for not doing the right things. “
Megan Guza is a staff writer for the Tribune-Review. You can contact Megan at 412-380-8519, [email protected] or via Twitter .
Tags:
Location | Regional | Best stories