With coronavirus cases soaring in late summer, experts warned of the potential for a so-called “double dementia”, which they said would have seen hospital systems overloaded by COVID-19 and the influx of flu patients, but the increase never came. In fact, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting that flu activity in the United States “remains lower than normal for this time of year,” which is typically the peak of illness.
Since October 1, 2020 or the beginning of the flu season, 165 flu-related hospitalizations have been confirmed by a laboratory in the United States. According to the CDC, this is not only below average for this point of the season, it is the lowest rate seen since data collection started in 2005.
So why did the flu virus take second place compared to the coronavirus? Experts say it is a mix of factors, but the mitigation measures put in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19 probably played an important role.
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“The same phenomenon was found in the Southern Hemisphere during the winter there (months opposite to ours) last year and was thought to be caused by the ‘non-pharmaceutical interventions’ adopted to prevent the spread of COVID-19 – masks, shelters and social distance , frequent hand washing and avoiding crowds, “Dr. Henry Miller, a former FDA employee and currently senior researcher in health studies at the Pacific Research Institute, told Fox News.
School closings probably also played a role, as early research suggests that children transmit the flu virus better than COVID-19, explained Dr. Abisola Olulade, a family medicine physician in California.
Coronavirus mitigation measures, such as social distance and wearing a mask, probably also contributed to the low spread of the flu virus, experts say
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“Flu transmission is more difficult than coronavirus transmission,” Olulade told Fox News. “Mitigation measures were more limited in their ability to prevent people from receiving COVID.”
Olulade said the impact of mitigation measures on reducing flu cases raises an interesting question as to whether some, such as wearing face masks in public, can remain in effect once the pandemic is over.
“I can’t imagine that the CDC isn’t thinking about it and I hope so, because it made a big difference,” she said.
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Olulade also pointed out that, although some may suggest that people were not testing for the flu amid the coronavirus, the rate of positivity of those who did so remained lower than normal, indicating that the viral spread in the community was indeed low, not a problem of which test was performed.
Dr. Eric Legome, chief of emergency medicine at Mount Sinai West and Mount Sinai Morningside, noted that there was not only a decrease in flu activity this year, but also in other common respiratory illnesses. Legome said that a longer incubation period, greater infectivity and no previous level of immunity to coronavirus also likely contributed to the increase in cases, while other diseases had low activity.
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“It is difficult to predict what will happen to the flu and other seasonal viruses in the next year (or any year, and next year it is particularly difficult),” Legome told Fox News. “Current interventions, such as masking, etc., may be necessary for an extended period. This can serve to prolong the reduction in respiratory diseases. However, it is theorized that once these measures are reduced or eliminated, there may be a significant increase in relation to the historical number of these infections. That is, we can see seasons of flu and exceptionally severe colds due to factors such as increased susceptibility to some of these diseases. “
Miller said the strength of the flu virus next year will be reduced to a matter of probabilities and that it is impossible to predict whether a dangerous mutant – which causes new infections – will appear. The vaccine developed for next year may also play an important role in the progress of the season, but it may be difficult to find the right formula based on the low number of strains that have circulated this season.
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“We determine the vaccine strain by what happens in the southern hemisphere,” continued Olulade. “If we don’t have enough information, will we select the right strain in the vaccine? We also don’t want to cause hesitation about the vaccine – even if it’s not entirely protective, it decreases [the] strength of the virus. “